mushymanrob

todays noaa 500 mb 8-14 day chart, and it continues the evolution previously suggested... imho its a completely sound consistent evolution. the atlantic trough weakening and sitting more over the azores whilst the scandinavian/northern european high retrogresses towards us. this can only mean more lengthy spells of heat, and a roasting start to august must be a distinct possibility. the ecm and gfs are hinting at severe heat over spain shifting northwards for this time period. i expect some 'roasting runs' to start to firm up for early august. of course this is not a 'given' , nothing is, but id be very suprised if the noaa's were far from correct or as near as damnit!

the problem with the gfs is that it brings the atlantic trough much closer towards us then the noaa anomaly charts do. they keep it well out nearer the azores. so im not buying the gfs's version of affairs, pressure will rise after this weekend to our east, the atlantic low is expected to weaken, but be centered further west. this would suggest that the run of hot southerly sourced air will not be a 24-48 hour wonder, but could last longer.

yes.... yes it does.....

dont think our local record will go though on friday. so to me its a bit of a moot point. in 03 when the record was set, so was our local . so i cant really get excited about what somewhere else is getting if we only get 25c..

you realise youre displaying a high degree of ignorance here no disrespect like, but just because you dont like it doesnt mean those of us that do are 'wrong'. some of us DO like heat, real heat. bring it on i say.

excellent pic!

Seen it all before. The countryside recovers quickly. Ive worked outdoors for 45 years. Dry summers were quite common. Its largely because we havnt had one for 15 years that it seems so bad.

Most farmers are tennants. They dont get the subsidies, the wealthy land owners like dyson and the queen do.

flicking between the two 8-14 day 500 mb charts would suggest the weakening of the atlantic trough with a slight retrogression , with the eastern ridge becoming slightly stronger still . this has got to lend more weight to the hotter operational runs , with more southerly sourced air then westerly. the hot dry weather looks set to continue into early august, with these consistent, mean upper charts having a certainty value of 4/5.

gfs12z has no support, so its either bonkers or ahead of every other suite..

the noaa 500 mb charts are consistent, retaining the mean upper trough just west of iceland, and troughing southwards into the mid atlantic appears to be retrogressing a little and sinking southward towards the azores . the high to our east appears to be strengthening when flicking between the two charts. this is giving some support imho to the gfs's increasingly hot outlook , although never completely settled as we retain the mean upper southwesterly flow. a continuation of the merry dance between the plume/average spell pattern we currently have playing out across the country looks likely into early august with a thundery potential at times is looking likely. with more hot spells then cooler/average as the trough to our west declines in intensity whilst the ridging to our east intensifies - is what imho the noaa's are showing.

............ and yet many do, throughout the world.

Ill take that % at that timeframe lol Ok, im not expecting that to vetify in full, but something similar would be just as welcome . Im liking the potential though.

feasible !

oh i hope not! i know im clutching at straws here, but flicking between the 6-10, 8-14 day charts would appear to suggest a weakening of the mean upper trough in the north atlantic, plus it shifts further south towards the azores. at the same time a strengthening scandinavian high? naturally, as someone looking for a long hot spell (as opposed to the current mixed bag, as im sat under grey skies when it was supposed to be sunny) id hope future runs to have that mean upper trough as a weak feature over the azores/west of iberia, with a westward shift in the scandinavian high to produce a long southerly/southeasterly flow across the uk. thats what im hoping to see, but its not what id expect - which is little change from the current pattern.

to illustrate the accuracy of the noaa 500 mb charts... heres the chart for 8-14 days ahead published on the 15th july. in comparison to the gfs predicted chart for the 26th (mid point at the 8-14 days chart starting on the 15th). after much 'too-ing and fro-ing' the ops are now agreeing with the noaa's. not on just one run, but on all current ones that are unlikely to change much before the 26th. the main feature to note is the predicted position of the mean upper trough in the north atlantic, and outgoing flow over the north coast of norway/scandinavia. pretty much bang on.

eh?..... how do you arrive at that conclusion old bean? by believing the (yesterdays) gfs? there is plenty of heat on offer, its looking at the very worst 'average' which for the height of summer is pretty bloomin good! but there will be a lot of heat, a lot of sun, a lot of dry weather. we would have died for this coming weeks conditions in 07, 08, 12, and other years.. the pattern is unfolding as tamara described, as the anomaly charts suggests, and now even the ops are swinging towards... a lot of warm/very warm/hot/very hot conditions with thunderstorm potential . we clearly look like getting the best start to august for 15 years, at least as theres no sign of a pattern change . but i guess its what you call 'heat'. to me its 25c+ , because thats the temp on the old tv maps that they coloured in red (background colour).

nothings certain that far off... its all about percentages of probabilities. not holding 'us' down to next saturday specifically, give a day either side... but it would be unusual (but not impossible) if the 12z (who first presented the blowtorch) to be right over the ecm, other gfs runs, the anomaly charts and even tamara! but even IF the 12z proves correct, its still very nice pleasantly warm summery weather! its a 'win win' situation.

wrong.... because apart from the 06z other gfs, the ecm, and anoms do not support it.

i expect a lot of 'upgrades' regarding heat potential on the ops. tamaras " So, the long anticipated transition from the unusually northward displaced Azores/Atlantic ridge eastward extension domination (very warm and bone dry regime) to Atlantic low and downstream Euro/Scandinavian ridge domination (more humid, sequentially hotter at times with "cooler" re-sets, and rather less homogenously settled overall) is almost complete " is bang in line with the noaa consistent predictions, and they themselves have a 'high confidence' rating. looking good

well they do pinpoint where the mean upper ridges and troughs are likely to be .... within the mean upper flow is where you get the range of options of conditions most likely. so when they dont allow for a trough over the uk like the 06z gfs, its highly unlikely to happen. hence not getting all wound up like some do over 1 run. john holmes said the 6-10 day chart when consistent is upto 90% accurate, with the 8-14 day chart coming in at 70%. that makes them the most accurate for their timeframe.... NOTHING gets it right all the time. but the times ive seen them spot the trend long before the ops do, and the ops hardly ever 'win' a predicted mean upper pattern when in disagreement with the anoms. but you do need to view the ops for detail.. hence i take note of the ops closest to what the anoms predict. that method is very successful, as the 1k - 1.5k local people who daily read my blog on fb will testify we all have our prefered suites though, so whatever works best for people individually cant be far wrong.

not according to the anomaly charts which keep the mean upper trough well to our west exactly, which is why i dont take much heed of the ops IF they differ somewhat from the anomaly charts. the 06z again isnt very clever, it, in itself, is unlikely to be accurate. the overall outlook is still one with great heat potential with a few thundery spells thrown in.. its a fantastic outlook for late july/early august, the best easily since 03 if not 95.

this evenings noaa 500mb charts still show troughing to our west, with the uk under more influence off the scandinavian/european high then the atlantic trough, for the next 2 weeks. thats a long way from the ecm's building ridge at t240 and would suggest an unsettled but warm/hot spells mixed with slightly cooler ones. it will allow for plumes and thundery breakdowns. not bad at all, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

not a clue, i wasnt around! lol (well i was 2 in 59)

the 8-14 day 500mb charts also suggest a strengthening scandinavian high with a little westward progress over the 6-10 day chart. the current gfs is nothing to worry about, the expected plume is in fi anyway so the odd run that ignores it or plays it down is to be expected. the anomaly charts do not really support the 06z and are consistent in suggesting a more southerly/plume type event occurring. but even IF the gfs 06z verifies, so what? its still producing great summery conditions we yearned for over most of the last 12 summers!