mushymanrob

thats very tentetive and i dont call 95/97, 03/06 "in twos"... nor would i call 97 as good as 96! and what about 89, 90, 91?.. however, this long hot dry summer is long overdue, it wouldnt surprise me if over the next few summers - we get decent ones.

pretty straight foreward really knocks... those charts suggest the mean upper flow... as you know full well. that allows for surface flows from either 'side' of the isobars. the current noaa 6-10 dayer has the mean upper flow south of southwest across most of the uk with a slack gradient over the southeast. from that, a plume is certainly possible. not a 'given' by any means, but is certainly within the limitations the noaa's allow for. of course its transitory, a 48 odd hour affair, so wouldnt support yesterdays 12z gfs that had days of a southerly. me? im very content with the outputs, the noaa anomaly charts have been consistent now for 4 days, and imho totally support the current ops, which differ only in the detail.

for me its about potential more then what the models show, and they were always going to have a degree of inconsistency in them. there is a lot of heat in southern france/spain, it wouldnt take much of a synoptic move to head it northwards which is what some runs show,. so potentially there is a good chance of some real heat in about a weeks time.. isnt it nice NOT to be discussing 'will it get hot', but 'how hot will it get'?... lol

spot on the only damage to trees in 76 was to shallow rooted trees... beech suffered badly. this spring was very wet upto mid april, totally unlike 76. ive seen these dry spells many times in the past, they have been rare since 2003 (although the southeast gets more then the rest of us). but grass/vegetation always recovers. brown grass = no problem.

the gfs 12z might well be extreme but other gfs runs, the ecm, and the anomalies all point in unioson to a southerly draw later next week. my favoured noaa charts are for 4 days now consistent and if anything have inched towards a more southerly mean upper flow. next week will get hot... that is pretty much certain, the only question is.... how hot?

a wonderful gfs run... sadly unlikely to verify in that state..

nice to see the ops catching up with what the noaa anomaly charts have been suggesting for several days now , lol. they have consistently suggested the atlantic trough entering from the northwest then stalling to our west, giving the uk a mean southwesterly upper flow . this does allow for a plume, albeit transitory, it also allows for a southerly sourced surface flow i believe, so the heat the ops now show has some traction.. the troughing sat over the uk like previous gfs runs had suggested, was unlikely, as was the more progressive ridging some ecm runs suggested. the anoms also show the building, intensifying, scandinavian high, with hints of it extending westwards to meet an eastern building ridge off the displaced azores high. personally, im pretty happy now that the gfs, ecm and noaa's are in broad agreement, that the pattern they suggest for 7 - 10 days time will become manifest. however the detail might change as a battle between the hot air in the east, and cooler fresher air in the west , takes place over the uk... there is potential for some very big thunderstorms and heavy rain. but whether we get heat or cooler fresher conditions will depend, as ever, on the relative strengths of the incoming trough to our west, and the intensifying scandinavian high to our northeast. noaa charts from a few days ago (and are still consistent) with the 00z gfs and 00z ecm @ 240.

eh? the ukmo is better then the gfs?... last time i looked the gfs was just behind the ecm with the ukmo trailing. ...and the gfs picked up the end of the cold snap in 2010, that too was told to 'ignore' as it was a 'mild outlier'... it wasnt, it was correct long before the ecm or ukmo.

not so here m8y.. this splendid sunny warm / hot spell has only been here 3 weeks (and 2 days ) , before then whilst it was mainly dry, it was cloudy. it last rained here on june 16th when we had a tropical monsoon late in the afternoon.

im liking this progression, (two days ) ok its far from a given, but its heading for a cut off low to our southwest, which adds weight to the 'plume' option, although currently itll be transient. worth watching, a strong scandi high and troughing to our southwest could see us roast

it makes no difference what some people might want, the weather isnt run on democratic principals... itll do whatever it wants to do and this summer is heading to be a true classic, one that will be remembered with affection by those us us who love the warmth... even if we sweat a bit... that doesnt bother me. we have waited a very long time for a summer like this... it might well be another very long time before we get another... just enjoy it whilst you can.

exactly.... IF we get temps into the mid 30s, chances are it wouldnt last.. a lengthy run of hot south/southeasterlies are rare as they usually pre-empt a breakdown . it really would be unusual to get locked in a south/southeasterly for longer then 48-72 hours .

completely agree its such a refreshing change to be able to enjoy the outdoors without getting wet! the warmth, the air filled with scents of lilies, jasmine and now buddlia... wonderful summer weather.

83?.... id rate 83 along with 75, 76, 95... currently this heatwave is only 3 weeks old, so has yet to 'beat' 2013, 2006, etc... but indications are that we will get more heat with no significant breakdown. so this summer is likely to feature as one of the greatest, and certainly the greatest since 1995. to be fair, theres been no 'breakdown' as such, just a slackening of pressure and temps for some time. 8-14 day chart suggests more unsettled with plumes possible thunderstorms, and adds weight to the clusters posted earlier..

absolutely... but surely the average gives those of us who dont view every run and spot the nuances the information to hand. the main problem with the ops is that they can be totally wrong in such a short timeframe. just look at the number of times the ecm doesnt agree with the gfs, and / or the 00z doesnt agree with the 12z.. people naturally let personal preferences creep in, and thats where it tends to go pear shaped. so i view the anomaly charts first, get the idea of what the mean upper pattern is most likely to be, then view the ops for the detail, believing the run closest to the anoms. by using this method its quite amazing just how accurate you can be. no its not fool proof, but % wise and with confidence its imho far better then the ups and downs of the ops alone. it was said " its nowhere near certain there will be troughing for the next two weeks" ..... but broadly that is what not only the anoms are suggesting, but the ops too, with only transitory ridging. on the plus side, this weeks troughing looks like being more shallow then what the noaa anomaly charts had suggested initially, and indeed imho they have struggled with accuracy over this summer to nail troughing, they seem to be over estimate what we actually get. we are in line for plenty of decent summery warmth this week, with a few heavy showers, so despite lower pressure its still looking ok.... but theres no quick return to ridging (other then transitory) so no widespread heat, which will suit many who dont like it too warm. personally, i expect another lengthy high pressure dominated spell , 'the big one' where temps will soar and we will bake for 2-3 weeks - but on that ill probably be disappointed. lol.

They arent. I have never said they are. But a detailed study of them from an experienced met man has shown them to be the most accurate model suite for that timeframe. Ive checked this claim out and found it to be true. Id suggest you do the same thing because itll save false hope the ops do repeatedly. Of course its not certain that we will be trough dominated for the next two weeks, thats what 'prediction' is all about. But you need realism, not hope casting. All to often on here a certain model becomes 'the' model because its showing what someone wants to see. I want heat.... but the most accurate suite doesnt give much hope of that, other then transitory 48 hour spells. So ill be very happy for the current output to be wrong.

not sure what youre getting at here... troughing has been expected by early next week since at least last saturday (when i got back from dubai and started viewing the models again). so imho its not at 'ten days like a mirage' . the only question really is 'how deep the troughing will be' , and thats still to be resolved but its not looking like itll be very deep. but the current heatwave pattern of ridging extending across the uk and heading eastwards off the azores high, IS ending, for now at least. the noaa anomaly charts have progged this consistently, and troughing remains the mean expected upper pattern for the next 2 weeks, or should i say 'shallow troughing'. so maybe not a 'big' pattern change, and indeed its not looking bad with decent temps/sunny periods/showers but theres certainly a relaxation of the higher pressure and higher temps.

fair play

fair play paul, but i saw nothing that i thought was a 'snipe' really... but hey ho...

im a bit confused here.... not sure why knockers question was deleted, i too would like to know what the 'sibling model thread' is ? knocker in the short term thread does not post hyperbolic, knee jerk, or sensationalist material.... only cold hard facts based upon the models which he supports with charts... not sure what the issue is here?

yeah thought so... but the flaws i highlighted apply to the cet area - high overnight minima then gives month 'a' as being a warmer then average month when in fact it was overcast. so the cet stats to me dont really mean much. mean daytime temps though... well thats different..

what are you basing that on?... stats can be unreliable... like... if we got a cloudburst we could have over a months worth of rain in 1 day, whilst the rest of the month was dry... on record it would be average or above rain wise... high overnight minima in august in recent years makes it look like we have had warm augusts... but they were cloudy so the stats give the wrong impression. for me, i dont care about overnight lows/mean temps, its getting sunshine and dry weather by day with daily max's that matter.

to be fair, azazel does make a point here... so many recent summers have been 'front loaded'. not only did the hot julys of 06, 13 give way to a wet or lacklustre august, other promising summers like last year and 2010 both of which had really good signs in june with warm/hot sunny spells - gave way to really rubbish second halfs ... so whilst it may be a bit ott to suggest aumtumn starts next week or whenever, suggesting summer heat might be over does have grounds in recent facts.

but thats what the noaa's have been predicting for that timeframe.. and continue to show troughing dominating for the 6-14 days timeframe. as i see it, after sunday, the great heatwave/summery spell of 2018 is over, with an unsettled spell ensueing for the heart of summer and possibly the month. not that conditions will be bad, but after sunday theres no more 'heat' (as in 25c + ) widespread (favoured southeastern areas might well breach that benchmark) . whether high pressure re-asserts itself into late july/august remains to be resolved, id like to imagine it would, but previous 'hot spells' of 2006 and 2013 failed to prolong after the three odd weeks. so this summer is now not looking like a 1976, 1983, 1995, etc whos cooler spells were short lived.

noaa anomaly charts had shown troughing dominant next week for some time now, not sure why when the ops have caught up - its a surprise..