mushymanrob

its looking like there will be no 'bad' winter, no repeat of say 78-9 , id have thought the best coldies can hope for is a 2 week freeze late jan/early feb. many would welcome that, but tbh i doubt we will even get half of that.

WINTER IS OVER! ...... ive just seen a DAFFODIL out in bloom! seriously.... in risley (between derby and nottingham) tbh though it is an early flowering variety... *snigger*

i wouldnt write off winter yet.... statistically i believe that early cold snaps are more likely to preceed a cold winter then a mild one. of course its not a hard fact, nor rule, just the law of averages .

absolutely...... i dont understand the teleconnections and frankly i have no real desire to try. its all too complicated for my ageing head. ill stick to what i can understand better - the basic ops/anomalies. i think that i, and others, can make a decent enough guess based on past patterns as to what is most likely following pattern 'x'. thatll do for me, and good luck to those who are trying to interpret a very intricate web of data, respect for that.

you could say that for many... but im not so sure that her (or anyones) posts would be 'revered' if she made a strong case for a bartlet driven mild winter with no chance of cold. personally, i have respect for those attempting to interpret a very complex dynamic whether they are right or wrong, as long as they are unbiased lol.

@Tamara tbh i have trouble understanding all the teleconnections and how to try to interpret them in relationship to one another and what it eventually signals for us. im possibly not alone in this. im happy to use the anomaly charts, i understand them better in relationship to the ops, and produce a popular daily blog for my locale based on them. so getting an idea of what lies ahead in the 7-14 day period is in my comfort and knowledge zone. ill leave the more in depth analysis to you and gp, thats not disrespectful, but you are talking about things outside my comfort zone, and if you are suggesting the likelyhood of a scandinavian block further down the line, thats fine, ill only take any notice of it though when it becomes apparent on the data uses im comfortable with.

couldnt agree more, but its the noaa anomaly charts that i use more then the ops because the ops vary so much. they can pick up on a signal, but they also pick up on an outlier.

cant we praise them?...

whats not to like about a good snowfall?.... days of slush or ice, the cold, the cold, THE COLD... high heating bills, dangerous roads and footpaths, being stuck inside unable to work or metal detect. the fall itself is fun, and for a couple of hours after its finished. then though its just a vile frozen/wet mess.

fortunately my comment was light hearted. i dont care about the snow although prefer to have none.

covered with the damn stuff....

anybody want my snow?.... looks like im in line for a dumping tomorrow and i do not want it!

with respect to them, it wouldnt be the first time they, or others, have been wrong. lets face it, havnt we all?

at this time of the year anyway (still, slate grey skies) . its not stupidly mild but not cold enough to be unpleasant when working outside, and its dry! no rain, no fog, no dew. yeah i agree about a truely memorable event, im not a fan of the cold, but i do like a proper decent blizzard. so for me its all or nothing. chasing the snow (mod thread) is pretty pointless until a blizzards iminant, a farty bit of snow simply isnt worth it imho.

wonderful winters day today ... dry, calm, cool, overcast. stay like this until mid feb please! yeah i know it wont

who? lol thats fine, i might well be wrong, im basing my pov on what the noaa's are predicting for the next 2 weeks. of course it depends on them being right.

anomaly charts keep the mean upper flow from the northwest. suggests to me a continuation of cold/less cold spells as systems traverse the northern flank of the western high bringing a milder or less cold spell before northerlies tuck in behind it as ridging to our west builds. not sure why theres so much excitement over there (points to model thread) , i dont think theres much snow likely for most of us and that that we do get is likely to be wet and not settle too long. certainly no 'big freeze' on the cards.... not yet anyway.

yep.... but the trend is positive for coldies. flip flops yes but a good chance of the colder option 'winning' and establishing a proper cold spell. but hey - ive been wrong before lol.

i darent look in the mod thread, there is a real threat of a severe cold evolution imho, every northerly seems to be getting more and more potent. cold weather fans do have something to be excited about.

stick to your guns... some of us like to know what really going to happen

............ that is something some of us cannot do. its horrible.

i was going to come here to moan about the light sprinkling of snow i woke up to... ... but actually it prevented frosted windscreens, so old mushy is quite satisfied with that!

the noaa charts suggest cold is likely next week with a slack mean upper northwesterly and height anomalies to our northwest. the ops dont really agree with this, itll be interesting to see if the ops fall into line with the noaa anoms. im no cold fan but imho its looking likely that we will get a cold spell, 4-5 days at least. no big freeze but just cold.

if more people had your attitude the mod thread would be a much better place in winter.

self censorship then... filtering out opinions that dont suit what you would like to hear , whats the point of a discussion forum if your only going to take notice of opinions you agree with?..