mushymanrob

ironically thats what i was thinking he might have been saying! of course everyone is entitled to an opinion, and i know there are many who hate this weather, fair play, but IF theres guilt tripping involved then thats not on really...

so? are you suggesting that longing for more sun/heat shouldnt be allowed because you want rain?.. great to see the mod thread alive in summer... there was a time not so very long ago when it was dead.

completely agree .... it would be a rare thing IF the consistent noaa charts are far wrong. both the current ecm (00z) and gfs (06z) have little or no support for their more progressive suggested evolutions.

ok, overnight they have updated their charts after lagging them with the date. the continue to suggest a stronger upper trough then the ops do.. and are consistent. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

well the noaa charts are useless today, the date has updated but not the chart... says 'updated 9/7 but the charts are yesterdays 8/7.

yes, certainly a holly blue... they appear to have spread their range northwards over the last 30 years. i recall the first i had in my derby garden, it was noteworthy, but now they are quite common, and ive seen more today then the once abundant small tortoishell.

i wouldnt count your chickens regarding the non breakdown just yet... much though i hope it doesnt happen. ill not be happy with it until/unless it gets anomaly support ... then ill get more optimistic

76? 95?... yep, so dont let next weeks cooling off be of a worry.. july 15th 76, 95, 18.

thought the saying was "wimbledon starts wet but ends dry" .... so im not sure i agree with that assesment old chap anyway, theres no southerly possibility now on the latest ecm, the tease it had on the 12z has gone on the 00z. mind you i believe the 6-10 day mean could allow for a transitory southerly blast? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

had a humingbird hawk moth yesterday in my garden, first one (seen) since 2006.

bib , which is why i view the noaa anomaly charts first as they are the most accurate suite for predicting the mean position of any feature. dont get me wrong, id love the heat to continue and it might well do. but i cannot ignore the gathering signals .

i dont share your optimism. there is pretty good agreement that after next weekend it will turn cooler, fresher, and unsettled as a mean upper trough takes up residence in the north atlantic. the noaa anomaly charts predict the evolution clearly and the ops are now putting on the detail. of course it might not happen, its not set in stone, and even if it does happen it might not be a total pattern change but a brief blip before more high pressure domination resumes. for me, it is the best spell since 1995...

yep, even hot summers had a break from the heat... so the suggested cooling off/trough dominated spell after next weekend means nothing atm. it might herald a pattern change, but if its like 95 itll come back with avengance. locally we had 11 unbroken days of 25c+ , which i think is possibly the longest unbroken stretch in living memory.

very nice! sorry been away...

inconsistent though... they had been showing troughing. they, like all model suits have been struggling to define whats likely to happen from this weekend and beyond.

a first for my garden... this afternoon a visit from a white letter hairstreak butterfly

superb hot spell, crystal clear blue skies (ok after early cloud) , strong sun in dry fresh air... beautiful!

nowt here this morning at 2,55 am

that though depends on where you live, thats my point. this current hot dry sunny spell for the whole country IS the best since 2013 as its expected to last at least 7 days (in total).

not at all.... it wasnt warm enough, sunny enough nor dry enough to be compared to this june.

true, june last year was promising, but the warm/hot days came in 1s and 2s, no one really remembers them. its high pressure dominance over several consecutive days like we are enjoying now that will get remembered. lets face it, this end to june is making this the best june spell since.....?...... i cannot remember!

exactly, what matters imho is temps, sunshine, and dry days... i say dry days because in a storm you can get a months worth in a few hours, which would suggest an average month yet 29 days were dry!

no i mean in one locality, not nationally. but if you mean one locality, fair enough !

yes they did, as long ago as 75, and 76. it was never 3 months of continuous heat, in fact i believe the longest continuous run of heat (25c+ ) here was in 1995 at 11 days, although there might have been more in '76 i dont know.

"down this way at least" ... see the error here?... 76 wasnt "down here at least" nor was 90, 89, 83, 95, 06 etc etc etc, they were nationwide hot spells that lasted more then 24-48 hours which is all we have had since 2013.