mushymanrob

surely though, its only shallow troughing, and no real return to serious troughing with gales and heavy rain, id have thought the pressure is still on the +ive side of neutral , so some unsettled weather but a lot of fine mainly dry conditions? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

i wouldnt worry, even 76 wasnt wall to wall heat from june to sept. there were cloudier cooler spells, as the was in 95 and 90, and most other long hot summers. theres no major pattern chang in the offing, just a relaxation of the current hot spell which i make SO FAR (assuming upto thurs which appears to be nailed) the 4th best this century, behind 03,06,13, but with july and august to go, its place is very likely to rise....and if not, its still the best summer spell for 5 years and the 4th best in the last 18....no make that since 1995, so 23 years. cannot complain at this, although it would be frustrating if it turned extremely wet!

exactly, which fits perfectly imho with what you previously posted

i too remember 76, and we will get nothing like 76 this year, thats my point, because '76' wasnt just '76' it was 75 too, a culmination of long term drought and its that that caused the problems more then the heat .

oh per-leez... will you stop with this attempt at guilt tripping those of us who like heat by pointing out the negative effects it will have on wildlife?.. which surprisingly has survived all the great extremes of the past. do you think the same about the damage cold does?

what hot spell in june 2014? a couple of days?... its true, we might not get anything else, but i strongly suspect that because you dont want any heat, your clutching at straws trying to play down the reality that atm theres no sign of a major pattern change and that high pressure is likely to be the main player this summer.

chances of a repeat of 76 was never on. we would need a year of well below average rainfall and a previous hot summer to repeat 76. a 95 style summer though is very much alive. its highly unlikely that this will be the only hot spell.

i was employed by the council in 76, so my wages were safe, lol. if the grass browns off now - i dont care, im drawing a pension, so its not a disastrous or hard hitting financially as 1995 was - but even then half of my income was contract, so again, weatherproof. 2012 wasnt disastrous, it was just unpleasant as long wet growth = harder work in unpleasant conditions. yep, im getting a 1995 vibe about this summer too bring it on!

may and early june 70 was scorching, there was one bit when the sky turned red, you could look at the sun , my first memery of saharan dust. fair play, i stand corrected although in my defence i wasnt around for most of those summers lol.

tbh i dont know... maybe ive forgotten them, i cannot remember a week long hot spell though in those years. i think (like last year) there were possibly 1-2 day hot bits.

you missed out 76, 90, too..lol. they had early hot spells before a hot dry summer. i cannot think of a time when we had a hot end to june, then nothing else. of course this isnt a 'thing', an undeniable rule, and this could be the only hot spell we get, but imho its unlikely.

the good news is that imho this is only the first course, lol, i fully expect, based on past hot summers and no hint of a pattern change, that the main course will emerge by mid july when a lengthy hot spell will surpass this on. it must be remembered that even in 76, 83, 95 etc it wasnt 'hot' every day for 2 months! (or longer), there were periods of less sunny, less hot, spells

noaa charts suggest a slackening of the high pressure into july. a gentle westerly upper flow with pressure still on the +ive side of neutral. looks to me like the hot spell will fizzle out (as opposed to a thundery breakdown) as a westerly draft takes over, lowering temps, (but still warm) with some more unsettled conditions. the usual caveat - wetter windier cooler in the northwest with the southeast hanging on to the hottest, driest conditions. the warm dry theme is set to continue, with another lengthier high pressure hot spell starting in about early/mid july, if the long wave pattern repeats. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

FANTASTIC WEEK AHEAD! and if this is all we get, its still makes it a better summer then 11/12 previous.

where were these observed?

if people dont like heat, why do so many of us chose to holiday in the heat?... ive never heard of people holidaying in a frozen place simply to 'enjoy' the cold! (they go for winter sports, not for the cold per-se)

hi, have you got a link to that spaceweather site please? if theres a way of predicting when we can see these it would help. ps...ive seen pics on facebook from north york moors of them from last night, frustratingly!

fair play sir we are long overdue for a dry summer, (dry doesnt always mean hot , thinking 1979 for eg) , although the southeast has 'browned off' quite regularly in recent years , the rest of us hasnt. so tbh i believe the models suggesting some sort of continued high pressure domination.

if you had been following them, youd see that despite a mean upper westerly flow, they had consistently suggested rising pressure. they might not be the first to pick up on a new pattern, but they are the most accurate. who cares about being 'first'?... give me accuracy anyday and what matters if an accurate pattern is shown at 7 days or 14?

NOTHING. im already hearing reports of them last night, some stunning pics. i stayed out from 11pm until midnight when it was all but dark. sat on a high vantage point with a clear view of the northern horizon. all i can conclude is that derby is too far south.

indeed, only that came 6 weeks later then this one, and the north sea is still cold. the current modelling including todays noaa suggest a slack easterly . personally im not happy about that, we had similar in 2013 and we 'enjoyed' a cloudy cool weekend in the middle of that heatwave. just a few runs ago the runs were suggesting a thundery breakdown over next weekend, that option is off the table this evening. cant see anything near 30c off an easterly, except perhaps in the far west. and north sea cloud is likely to spoil thing imho. the latest 6-10 dayer

think ill try staying up tonight, if i can stay sober (need to travel for best views), cool clear skies, should produce?...

but we have had those... mixed winters with periods of mild/cold, settled/stormy wet/dry.. ok not much snow recently unless you count march (which is technically spring).. last winter wasnt overly mild, in fact wasnt it below average?.

i dont know m8, i dont live there... maybe those countries met offices might have?.

you work 24/7?.... nope thought not, so how can you acclimatise whe you work 8 hours shifts (presumably) 5 days a week (presumably). the point is that people who DO live in extreme heat/cold, DO acclimatise to it. in previous heatwaves where ive worked in 30c+ temps in the sun (with dirt and insects) you do get used to it. thats not the same as your conditions where after work youre back into normal conditions.