mushymanrob

IF the rest of summer is average, maybe so, but the outlook looks wetter then average to me - just when farmers need bone dry.

i worked in it..... i have to... i cut grass and that doesnt stop growing just because i dont want to get wet..

i dont like what youre forecasting, but i do like your forecast

a great harvest?.. in the rain?.... surely a good harvest needs dry warm weather. its too late now, the growing period is all but over, its about ripening now not growth.

it appears to me though that its the anticyclonic pattern that gets curved balls thrown in to disrupt more then trough dominated patterns. of course they can change, but recent history shows that we havnt had a decent august (widespread) for many years... in fact wasnt it 07 that after a washout june/july that things picked up? so no, its not an exact science, as i see it its the laws of probability, and going of recent trends augusts can start unsettled and do remain unsettled..... nobody would like it more then me of this forthcoming trough dominated pattern shifted quickly, but i cannot see it happening.

does the jet stream determine where the azores high is positioned , or does the azores high dictate where the jet stream flows?.... its true that you cannot write off the whole of august based on the first two weeks of prediced synoptic patterns. but historically, and you only have to go back to the last few summers, once these atlantic trough driven patterns have established and they have 'written off' the rest of august/summer. so whilst it certainly isnt a done deal - it is pretty likely, these troughing patterns are usually hard to shift once in place. ill not place any money on any sustained hot spell emerging, however its one bet id be happy to lose!

huh ..... my facebook feed for 'on this day' reads the same weatherwise... for the past 3 summers 'on this day' i was bemoaning the 'bad news' as deep upper troughs or the atlantic was kicking off, with no sign of any heatwave... its getting beyond a joke now..

well its its any consolation, the gfs 12z is probably over amplifying the low pressure domination so i wouldnt get too hung up on that.

well not so much poor per se as not being very good (overall). i have no idea whether theres an ice connection.

it can be warm and sunny, thats true, but if all you require is a bit of sunshine and warmth for it to be 'summer', i pity you! theres far more to summer then sunshine and warmth... summer like weather in september for me is like boxing day is for a kid..... the party is all but over.

the met office did get it wrong, along with many others. gp and tamara didnt expect this either, and niether did i who was pretty convinced that after 11 years this summer was heading to be at least dry and anticyclonic- based on previous historic patterns plus imho we are long overdue for a widespread dry summer. in my 44 years of cutting grass for a living, this 11 years is by far the longest stretch ive witnessed with no appreciable work loss due to grass browning off. with a deep mean upper trough taking up residence to our near northwest, the chances now of a long hot summer have evaporated. there wont be anything hot and sunny before mid august at the earliest unless the models do a complete 180' u turn. and PLEASE dont go on about september being nice... yes it can be, yes its welcome, but its not ' summer' (see below)

i agree with this, because usually once established, a pattern as described is hard to shift . its perfectly feasible that a trough dominated unsettled regime could last some time - i hope it doesnt, but the reality is the odds would favour a longer pattern rather then shorter.

yeah very tentetive signs, the noaa 6-10 dayer now suggests the mean upper trough centred west of north instead of the previous east of north, so the rain will be warmer. but it might allow for a transitory ridge to deliver a 24-36 hour hot blast between systems ?

2013 was good for the south and west.... not so for eastern and central areas. we had a cool overcast weekend, and several other days too, when most of the south and west were baking.

when i first joined here, the 'new norm' or 'large teapot' was a term used to describe the run on milder winters , snowless for many, that typified winters 97-07. then we had a run of winters with cold snowy spells including 2010 and spring 2013. imho its only a question of time before we get another run of clasic hot summers, and despite the early hints this year would be it, it wont be. the anomaly charts all seem to suggest a large deep upper trough driving our weather from later next week . that will be hard to shift, right at a time we were looking for high pressure domination. a strong southerly tracking jet and a mean upper flow north of west surely is something to frustrate heat seekers at this time of the year.

disappointing? downright dreadful! i dont think the noaa anomaly charts could get any worse.

if you are refering to my earlier post regarding the latest 8-14 day anomaly chart - i did say if this chart is to be believed . so i wasnt presenting it as a 'given'

theres NO quick way back to heat if this chart is to be believed, whilst next wednesday is looking ok, especially in the southeast, the general outlook is poor, below average, and with no sign on any route back to something that would produce aengthy hot spell, the writing must be on the wall for at least the first half of august.

yep, not only the enemy of summer when it just sits there, but winter too, as no heat nor real cold can establish as long as the azores enemy is at home

well this is my concern with this troublesome anticyclone, pattern changer. im not ready to give up heat just yet even though we have enjoyed quite a lot.

another crap august then on the cards?....

my concerns are for the longer term effect of this troublesome low. it cannot go anywhere fast as its locked in, and it might just get replenished by systems from the northwest thus prolonging its influence on the uk. some heat - haters might like this, but it could be a pattern change IF northern / central europe holds on to -ive pressure anomalies. we might have had a pretty good summer so far (away from the north lol) but theres nothing to say itll last into august - it certainly didnt in 2006 or 2013. on the other hand in '95 and '03 it saved the best until august. but the azores high has/is being no friend to heat lovers, if it wasnt for that retrogressing then this nasty little feature couldnt have formed (over us anyway) and current modeling doesnt suggest its in any hurry to return to a more favourable position , except in deep fi as ever... so i reckon the behaviour of this forthcoming feature will be the pivotal point of the summer? and will likely determine the pattern for the second half of summer.

i always feel the first frosts more then the later ones..... i always feel the first hot days more then the later ones, but of course if the first frosts were -1c and theres a -12c later i would feel that more obviously.

exactly!...... well said!

with extremely high temps up the med including iberia, why not?..... ok, i know its unlikely to verify but if such a chart ever becomes reality then its surely only a question of time before the 2003 record is threatened.