mushymanrob

i dunno... tbh i still think we have a good chance of a superb hot august. ive been looking at some charts from july prior to a august heatwave... just look at this from 1995, who would have thought what would follow?..

indeed the gfs is another run supporting yesterdays ecm that had the nasty little low exit northwards quite quickly and not getting trapped in. ok this gfs run like yesterdays ecm is still unlikely to happen... but.... yes please mr god!

they were wrong about the ridging off the azores to the scandi highs though john... as were all model runs. reliability cannot be great in this very volotile situation.

well the ecm would suggest its not a foregone conclusion, and its still 4 days away in a volotile synoptic pattern.... fingers crossed.

................. so was the gfs when it first predicted this troublesome spoiling low...

is there any chance this so far non existent low will not happen?.... lol..

anomalies arent consistent surely, and the latest suggest troughing over the uk drifting east since you posted this. troughing over the near continent changes dramatically what we might get, and the azores enemy (whos retrogressing is going to allow the evolution of that nasty little midweek low - remember it was expected to be closer to the uk and ridge between it and the scandinavia high). this change could, imho, be a pattern changer and if it becomes reality theres no quick way back to anything hot after wednesday as the uk will be under a northwesterly upper flow with the azores enemy allowing a cooler unsettled flow across the uk.

we are still going to get a hot blast, and beyond that the signs are promising that we will get a lengthy settled spell that should at least be very warm if not hot. this delay doesnt phase me... seen it all before, will see it again.

sorry, i dont think thats true, most posts often have supporting charts. whether they become reality or not is a different matter. anyway, id have thought the gfs is still overplaying the severity of the proposed trough that might yet not happen, or more likely happen in a less amplified manner.

the 06z gfs looks like it was compiled under the heavy use of alcohol. its one of the biggest messes ive ever seen, and whilst it might be picking up on the gist of things, its bonkers in its current form.

surely such an abrupt change means that reliability is low , theres no consecutive agreement yet.

dont feel sorry for me..... its only weather, ive already had more 'hot' days this year then the past 4 summers combined. what was looking like the start of a lengthy hot spell might have gone pete tong.... so?... thats weather, its what it does, makes fools of everyone from GP to me..

this is the point, currently we are not expected to have a strong high sat right on top of us, or even just to our east. the anomalies dont suggest heights over us - yet- so it depends on what constitutes a 'heatwave'. personally i use the old bbc weather chart 25c (which was coloured a red/orange colour) as opposed to yellow (and blue for 0c and below) as the benchmark for what is 'hot'. some gfs runs have the 10c isotherm 'upper' right over the country for at least a week,, that would be a heatwave, other runs suggest the high uppers coming and going, so max temps in the mid 20's perhaps. and as i mentioned earlier, we have cloud to factor in, as we could easily have dry overcast conditions. but overall, the outlook is dry (apart from any thundery breaks) , probably with a lot of sunshine, temps warm, very warm or hot, and that looks very much the likely pattern through the height of summer and into early august which i think will probably make this summer 'the best' since 1995.. (for the bulk of the country - i understand favoured areas have had some decent summers). at flippin last!

..... and there you go, another step in the right direction that supports the general developing 'heatwave' synoptic pattern that at its worst still looks pretty decent with a lot of decent warm dry summery weather, at its best we would be in for a decent lengthy spells of hot weather .

noaa 8-14 day chart has now shifted to support the ridge between the azores and scandinavia across the uk.... ITS ON!

stunning gfs 12z.... absolutely stunning, and its not totally impossible either , ok its probably over estimating but its consistency is there, all we need now is a slight shift in the anomaly charts to support this and itll be game on!

i believe so, but its not up to me to say (and i might be wrong).

fair comment, but im still encouraged by these current charts , and the ops are heading that way too . ok, things arent black and white and height pressure domination (we look like being stuck between the azh and euro h) doesnt automatically equate to heatwave. we could end up dry but overcast, most of august 79, 91, and 94 was like that here - even in 76 we had overcast but dry days. as i see it, we are heading for at least average but likely above average and the dry theme continues - for england and wales at least. and theres always a chance of some hotter spells - id be extremely surprised if we didnt get any, especially with the way the charts are going.

it depends what constitutes a heatwave.... i use the old bbc weather definition - 25c+ as 'hot'. whilst currently theres no 'august 95' style heatwave predicted on the charts, we are very close to one evolving and there probably will be 'mini heatwaves' especially in the south. yes, ill be happy to bank whats on offer, but i certainly wont rule out any heat in the next 4 weeks in fact im certain there will be some, and possibly a lengthier more widespread one is surely a distinct possibility?

tbh id have thought its generally above average, but i guess that depends upon cloud cover, it could be like august 06 , dry anticyclonic but cloudy. so its down to sunshine, because in clear calm air we can grow our own heat in the strong sun. probably a large diurnal temp range, but hey, lets just see, as long as theres no monsoon then all is good.

the trend is becoming clearer, both the gfs and ecm 12z runs suggest after a warm muggy weekend, a brief cooler spell before high pressure builds in from the west. the gfs for several runs now is hinting at high pressure domination beyond next weekend. the outlooks looking dry, and although not overly hot , yet, theres always the chance of some hot air from the continent finding it way here. imho its looking average at worse, at best a lengthy hot spell must be a reality. i expect the anomaly charts will shift towards a more anticyclonic regime soon.

i sometimes wonder if others are viewing the same charts as i am. the gfs 12z is a great run, plenty of warm sunny weather which i calm air with a high sitting on top of us, will feel very pleasant in the strong sun with temps hitting the mid 20s. it wont feel a humid/muggy though as it will this weekend. another thing to note about the gfs outputs - its very keen to make high pressure the dominant feature, which at this time of the year would be toying with a real hot spell. oh, and that colder northerly blast in deep fi will not happen, its clearly an outlier. sorry heatophobes, i reckon youll have to wait a couple of months yet before it really does cool down.

well i did post the 8-14 chart too, which indeed isnt as positive for height rises as the 6-10, and i am guilty of some hopecasting because i do believe, and have done for some time, that we will get a decent hot spell this summer. (based on historic patterns) ive already had 9 days of 25c+ which in most recent summers has not been reached. in fact only 2013 had as many for me - and as ive said, historically early hot spells is more likely to lead to a decent lengthy hot spell in the second half of summer. of course this isnt a hard fast rule - but just a case of % . it woldnt surprise me if we end up with the 'best' summer since 1995.... in england and wales anyway, i know the north is seeing very little of our summery regime.

thats true, i did jump the gun last time breaking the cardinal rule... but isnt speculating allowed? i hope youre as keen to pull up those hopecasting fi cold in winter as you are for us heat lovers adding a little hope in the summer! great respect to knocker, top member, top poster. but what ive done today is commented on what the anoms are saying, which is exactly what knocks is doing.

the 8-14 day charts arent as accurate as the 6-10 and often fail to pick up on changes whilst the 6-10 has much higher success rate , the current 6-10 has a slacker and more westerly upper flow, compared to a previous chart (first chart). the current 6-10 day indicates to me higher pressure/ ridging over the southern uk? no heatwave - yet, but the evolution is heading in the right direction and this should produce a lot of very pleasant mainly dry summery weather .