mushymanrob

nothing last night..... i was really tired after being up watching history unfold the night before..

looking clearer at last...

longest day? half way through the season?... its been bloody awful so far with a lengthy cloudy spell spoiling our chances. might get an opportunity over the nest few nights though.

.... now the clouds have arrived! grrr... might be clearer later next week when we get that ridge and this low departs.

nothing yesterday morning 3.11 am nothing yesterday evening 11.15 pm

supposed to be kp6 now.... but its kp1.3,... so no aurora me thinks... skies cleared but hazy..

supposed to be a kp6 storm tonight 2100 - 0300 , if it clears we might see noctilucent clouds AND aurora!

so does this act as an early warning? there are early warnings for the aurora, a warning of likely activity would be useful. i dont want to wait up all evening if theres no chance. (im early to bed/early to rise)

need some clearer skies, they are too hazy/cloudy atm.. heres hoping!

couldnt agree more!.... especially if a real dumping of lying snow isnt likely out of any cold spell. its just a season ruiner.... and yes just like the ridiculous mild was in december.

bib - yep i said that... ok its rather a basic no nonsense post that i accept might be read a bit too black and white. but on the occasions they are wrong, they do correct themselves so to be fair its hard to think of a scenario when they wont show a mean chart thatll 'allow' for a surface synoptic? ill try to moderate that tone then...

good point! given their accuracy, perhaps not? as they seldom seem to be that far out, unlike the more amplified ops?

well said sir! bib - i think that only happens when they dont support a current op run showing a desired synoptic chart...

id agree there are signs of pressure building northward, and indeed a high cell centered over/just to our north, wouldnt suprise me. that though is just 1 option that can be gleaned from these charts, on the other hand of course it might just end up as a weak ridge northward off the main cell centered further south. one thing they dont currently allow for though is that large anticyclone over scandinavia the current ecm predicts. and i suspect that why posts championing the noaa's are unpopular - because they dont currently allow for that easterly so many seem to desire. of course the ops might be proven right, the noaa's inaccurate on this occasion - time will tell. never really got my head around those analogue charts, they (like other data sources) require extra time getting to understand fully. i like the 500mb charts because they are easier to understand, and are proving to be pretty accurate that suits my level of understanding.

i find the anomaly charts are pretty stable, for a period of 'x' days then they have a re-alignment .... abit like correcting yourself whilst driving through fog at night. the charts you posted shows just that. what i dont think ive ever seen with them, is a total switch - replacing high with low/positive with negative. ive found that when the anomalies stand alone, they are still proven accurate more times then not. that has happened several times over the winter period - remember those stunning easterlies? noaa's said no... they were correct and just yesterday the gfs and ecm op runs backed off from their over progressive eastward track . the noaa's said 'no' and they again were proven accurate. as i see it, its about % 's... which suite is most accurate for the timespan in question, NO one model is infalible, the noaa's are not always right. but they do appear to be more accurate , no, they ARE more accurate then the ops for the timeframe they pertain to.

....... and still people are putting their faith in fi charts

sorry old chap, i dont agree with that satatement, these charts have been most consistent now for several days, of course there has been tweeks but youd expect that in an ever changing atmosphere, but no more that id expect. they are a very long way from supporting these fi cold charts, which have a habit of modifying greatly - they have done so every time such cold charts are shown in fi this whole past 5 months. i have no idea what day 16 might bring, or the second half of this month , ill stick with the noaa's, when they show something - ill believe it

they do on facebook... https://www.facebook.com/aurorawatchuk/?fref=nf you can get text alerts to your mobile too

can it?... 1 day out of 91? surely the 29th would have to be majorly different to even tweek the winters figures.

i wish the prediction of its strength was more accurate, it was much stronger then the predicted strength, obviously not easy to judge. so i wasnt prepared, and had been drinking so couldnt drive to a suitable location, derby is to my north so the lights would obscure the show.

Beautiful! Thanks for shar Ing

PoSsibly

indeed, a high sited to our near southwest would probably be a dirty high, but a calm, dry, 10c for mid march isnt bad and as an outdoor worker most welcome ! (although id prefer sunny).

actually, just checking, and the noaa's dont actually cover the area other models suggest a deep trough might form. so i might be acting in haste there as the 8-14 day chart does show some pressure decrease.

sorry to bang on about this... the difference is that the expected mild weather next weekend has support from the noaa anomaly charts, the 'snow mania' charts didnt.