mushymanrob

Yep a fair summery, but what it doesnt support is a strong greenland high like the ecm doesnt. Therefore id have thought the chances of any chart suggesting a strong greenland high is likely to be wrong.

love march warmth, cant rate it highly enough but its all the more sweeter after a decent winter.

tell me about it.... ive lost 10 detecting days (saturdays) due to rain since harvest... i reckon theres great uncertainty in the charts, and many will fall into the old trap of believing the current synoptic charts will become reality in ten days time. the current gfs and ecm predictions are not very usual, so have a higher chance of failing to materialise? but theres no sign of spring, thats for sure

close, but these charts have been rather stuck like this for several days now. a strong azores high is about all thats certain? its looking rather messy to me, with great uncertainty, no easterly on this (other then brief). unsettled and cold id have thought?

i wouldnt mind so much if my work didnt depend on normal weather (at least). ive earned £0 for 9 weeks and needs to be getting out soon (gardening/grass cutting). i must admit though, that cold spell 3 years ago was rather nice, i like the snow in longer days, light levels etc make it seem more alpine then arctic.

cheers for that kp5 ?... on this site its only expected to be kp4, http://www.aurora-service.eu/aurora-forecast/ however realistically it needs to be over 6 for me.

i missed a kp6 on a clear night?... damn! id have travelled north for that.

well who would have thunk it?, who could have predicted? who could have guessed that the most wintry weather of the season would become manifest as winter ends and spring begins. why couldnt we get these below average/cold synoptic charts in december and decembers mildness now? sometimes i hate the bloody weather.

i think some members suggested there might be a snow event on the back edge of the front as cold pm air tucks in behind it. and they were right, in as much that the models they were referring to would have allowed the possibility of it. but these things are only a forecast, a prediction, and are subject to change which is what some folks might not quite get?

erm.... he didnt say theres going to be cold, he said "extended period of below normal temperatures", which is not really the same thing. it is of course as anything is looking 4 weeks into the future - a prediction based on current data which could change at any given point. true, this might mean that there might be a 'cold' spell, but it might also allow for a mild spell. the current anomaly charts, whilst not 100 % confident, do paint a broad picture of an unsettled spell with (as john holmes said earlier) the mean upper flow north of west. this would support fergies tweet (or vice versa). thats a pretty much no win situation either for those hoping for late cold, or those now looking for spring warmth.

well theres no sign of anything springlike in the offing, in fact its looking pretty poor with a chilly outlook.

yeah sometimes its hard to convey/understand abit of humour if you have youre serious head on! however ive read posts suggesting cold unsettled and blocked cold...

noaa anomaly charts dont really support much of a cold spell early march (ok they dont quite go out to march) but the theme is still a westerly or north of westerly flow. looking 'below average' at worst.

the models have got it pretty much spot on, predicting tomorrows frontal system many days ago. the overall pattern is going as expected . tomorrows event was always going to be a marginal affair for snow. imho the models have got it pretty much spot on since this evolution was first predicted mid last week.

yep, i got the buggers locked up in knockers woodshed! but seriously, the prospect of lying snow isnt very high, id assume snow lovers would like to see a dumping that settles and makes everything wintry... the models dont really support that, (well away from high ground) and the prospect of wet slush doesnt really float anyones boat?

indeed there doesnt appear to be much hope for those looking for early milder spells, other then transitory warm sectors crossing the country. these charts IMHO suggest that the start to march is more likely to remain unsettled and perhaps slightly below average - in line with the latest EC update ? as opposed to anything blocked. IF march is likely to be blocked (and it might not be a cold block) then theres no sign of it just yet , at least for early march.

always? i dont agree with your perception. here the 'late feb' charts (26th) 95-99 . they look all pretty much 'normal' and not different (broadly) from what predicted this year. no weak atlantic, high pressure, and not always cold. a normal mix imho.

ok... im a bit confused. the noaa aurora prediction site suggested there was a kp6 last night whilst the european site i linked above showed a kp 2-3 for the same time frame. so which one is most accurate?...

kp 5 predicted tonight 1800-00 before dropping back to 4... northern scotland again..

well if today is the worst this winter can throw at us......

not sure why theres fuss over possible back edge snow on wednesday - falling onto wet ground? surely itll just be a slushy mess.

kp4 atm, but predicted to drop...

but a dry 1c isnt on the cards for wednesday... ID prefer a dry 1c to the cold raw wet 4c odd we are likely to get... and any snow will be wet slush, which is neither use nor orniment. its looking just bloody awful for everyone.

nope.... warmth over cold anyday, unless its a driving blizzard forget it, and wednesday as nick says looks utterly foul. at least warm rain wont cost us money heating, and pollute the planet by heating.

yep... ive found this site http://www.aurora-service.eu/aurora-forecast/ dont know if its been mentioned, only dip,in and out until now when im taking it more seriously. i need kp over 6 which isnt predicted for tonight, might be same for you too, but i dont know how accurate the kp measurement is. ~ PAAAAUUL why is the whole text becoming the link instead of just the acutal link?..