mushymanrob

......... and there you go, the noaa anomaly charts 'win' yet again, they have had non of the eastward progression (east of our south) of the displaced azores ridge, suggesting with consistency that it sits to our near southwest. this is yet another example of the predicted mean trumping the volatile ops, in this case (unfortunately) saying 'no' to the warmest solution recently progged by the ops. the noaa 500mb charts are having non of the fi deep trough over scandinavia either, so that northerly blast that heralds another cold spell is unlikely to happen too. in saying that though, pressure is expected to be high to our southwest/west ridging northward (as knocker says) , with the upper flow from the west, theres no deep cold spell , but short lived surface colder spells are possible. of course the noaa's could change, but until they do those charts suggesting a deep scandinavian trough are unlikely to verify.

i hope so too ira252 !!! but i cannot reasonably pick which noaa charts to believe and which to ignore. i either trust them no matter what they say, or i drop them altogether. sorry, but todays noaa 500 mb charts still keep the displaced azores ridge just to our west and the mean upper flow across the uk still north of west. i hope they change, i hope this is one occasion when the ops 'beat' the anoms. but they have been proven to be on the ball far far more often then the ops. so as things stand, the best of the op runs warmth is unlikely to verify imho, not that itll be too bad though but not quite as amplified (warmth). ?

nice of you to say that, but im afraid we are seen by the rabid snowlovers as wind up merchants. and we are outnumbered, so we must be guilty!

i read it as examples of unusual events that only occur once in a blue moon, used to suggest/ramp up the expectations for unusual snow events.

i still think (unfortunately) the ecm and gfs current ops are too progressive with the eastward progress of the displaced azores ridge, (and consequently the warmest of the weather) as the noaa 500 mb charts currently suggest the displaced azores ridge is centered to the west of south.

cheers for that

whos done that?... ive not read 1 post moaning at not getting 20c this month. in fact ive not read 1 post moaning at anything near not getting 20c. i have seen posts moaning about the awful winter though, plenty of them, and ive read posts looking forward to warmer weather - but thats not the same as whinging its not 20c. perhaps im reading frustration in your post, going off your username and given its looking strongly like its going to get mild or even very mild lol

i didnt say it wont snow! i said "i doubt it" which 3 weeks out with no model data to go on is fair enough isnt it?

ok broken record time.... but ill say it anyway! lol dont expect a change, the noaa's have been consistent, that ridge to our near southwest WILL happen by next weekend, thats pretty certain now. how long it lasts, how mild/pleasant itll get is unknown at this date but theres plenty of room for optimism IF its springlike warmth you desire.

to be fair, it seems that when we reach november everyones looking for a freeze... 15c in march is absolutely beautiful, so i understand the desire for that, does everyone expect it? i dunno, die hard coldies are still out in force on the md thread ramping up the vague chances of something cold enough for snow. but you know theres little chance of that when the 'big guns' are all but absent, with only nick s hanging on.

a once a blue moon event proves nothing... its now spring, the only thing that isnt springlike are the temperatures. everything else is here, from spring flowers to lengthening days and hight/strength of the sun.

guys, this is the model discussion thread, as the models dont go out to easter yet, arent predictions of what easter might hold be speculative? even ramping? i have no idea what weather we will get in 3 weeks time, (my bad, not the 4 i mentioned earlier) im not expecting it to become mild and stay mild, spring is a season of mixed fortunes so after the likely warming up abit next weekend, im sure itll go colder again at some point. it might get cold enough for snow, but those events arent as likely as cold dry overcast easterlies - and thats assuming we even get an easterly. by next weekend the anomaly charts will start to bring easter into their view, if, between now and then they start to suggest a large pressure rise over scandinavia - ill believe it. if they dont, i wont.

based on what? easter is 4 weeks away, no modeling suite goes out that far with any degree of accuracy.

well im not going to bother speculating about what might evolve, its not usual for milder weather to come in early/mid march and for us not to get a colder spell. so a cold easter?... possible, its not unusual, but snow? i doubt that.

ive just posted on the md thread that there are tentative signs of a small pressure rise to our northeast, (i might be wrong here) as the green lines open out a bit. however the dominant feature , on these charts, is the azores high to our near southwest.

indeed.... the noaa charts out to day 14 suggest, consistently, the azores ridge building to our near southwest. this keeps the uk in an upper flow from a north of west direction, but, originating from a more southerly mid atlantic source. its looking like it might be a cloudy affair, but drier and milder by next weekend after a messy rather wet at times, unsettled week with temps gradually recovering. whilst the noaa's never supported such a large ridging over scandinavia yesterdays 12z ecm suggested, and subsequently dropped, there are tentative signs of slight +ive rises over scandinavia on the 8-14 day chart coupled with -ive drops over central southern europe. so maybe the beginings of an easterly evolution IF these tentative signs build pressure further over scandinavia. interesting to note too, the noaa's do not support the azores high building across our south/southeast bringing the very warm weather some runs are suggesting. for what its worth, the gfs 00z looks likely to verify upto t240.

yep, but not better then the anomaly charts from noaa. see, the ecm 00z has dropped the scandi high the 12z had, and is far more in line with the noaa 500 mb charts - azores high building to our near southwest.

spot on knocks... no scandi high on these charts, the ecm is highly unlikely to have spotted a trend the anoms have missed. the azores high looks very likely to be close to us, and the outlook must be good for those of us wanting an end to this awful 'no win' coldish spell. agreeing fully with captain shortwaves post in 'ramps/moans'.

dont worry about the ecm.... it will not become reality!

when the anomaly charts show a large scandinavian high - ill start to believe it, until then, this suggested option isnt likely to become reality.

the accuracy of the noaa 500 mb anomaly charts is the most accurate source for the 6-14 day period, they are highly unlikely to lead you up the garden path which is what the ecm and gfs has done.

only this time the noaa 500mb charts support the azores high shifting eastwards towards biscay/western france, so the ops showing this are imho likely to be something like correct. the noaa 500mb charts never supported any deep cold spell this winter, despite some op runs suggesting as much . (there were some very wintry charts from both the gfs and ecm). so id have thought its highly likely that the azores high build in closer to our southwest/south , detail to be determined at a later date. looking promising (for springlike warmth) - despite predictions of below average/cold (which might yet happen).

Kp5 expected sunday 00 for24 hours

bring it on! and yes, the noaa anomaly charts arent a million miles from allowing this

not necessarily , similar charts from march 69 brought a biting cold easterly under stratus laden skies. meanwhile the ops seem to be rather progressive bringing back the atlantic systems then the noaa charts suggest - although they do bring the azores ridge closer. either way its looking less cold by midweek next.