mushymanrob

well the noaa anomaly charts have been suggesting pressure rising over scandinavia for a couple of runs now, so there is growing evidence for this i guess.

sorry for my lazy post earlier, i should have cited the 8-14 day chart which doesnt bare much simularity to the previous one, nor does it appear to me to follow on from the 6-10 day chart youve posted smoothely. whilst i dont expect the 6-10 day chart to change much i am looking towards the 8-14 day chart for hints of a change, but a plausible one... hey just my tuppence worth, im not expert.

anomaly charts have changed, are inconsistent, so are of little use which can be seen as a good thing because it leaves the door open for something favourable to appear..... hmmph... thats a hopecast i guess.

easy to get hold of, £50 odd quid, mines in its 11th season now. just get level ground, old carpet to lay it on (rots grass off so pref not lawn), cover when not in use..... actuall i cover mine from the sun, it keeps the water cool as it soon warms up and goes cloudy. you can get chemical packs to keep it clear, and filters, but tbh its easier to refresh the water. it is wonderful to jump into when you get home all hot n sweaty.. its nice just to relax in the sun then cool off in the pool.... its also great at night, and youll sleep well after a long dip.

sorry, it doesnt look anything like '75, which was high pressure dominated with one thundery spell in early july (i think it was).

cheers! no fib.... its only a 10ft pool but it does its job!

ive done it AGAIN.... that should read WOULDNT ..... i really must pay more attention..

id sooner have it hot, last week i was cooling off in my pool, having an evening bbq, sitting outside in my garden listening to swifts screeching overhead and enjoying the scents of my jasmine and lilies whilst drinking red wine.... its got 3 other seasons to be cool!

well the current noaa anomaly charts would allow for anything other then transient, ill keep faith in them personally. but will continue to hope for something soon to emerge that will allow for a longer settled spell. mind you, they arent looking bad at all, theres no monsoon in the offing which for me is most welcome!

the last height anomaly build though came overnight, the 8-14 day chart failed to pick it up in that timeframe and this appears to happen quite frequently. it wouldnt surprise me at all if there was a switch in their predictive pattern as they re-align when a height rise becomes apparent. it would fit with the general long wave pattern of troughing and ridging too..... im optimistic, but would be happier with a weaker jet.

tell me about it... jeez... its awful... just as my lilies and jasmine are coming into full bloom... grr...

isnt it?.... well we will see. im not overly happy about the coming chilly weather but theres not a lot we can do about it.

indeed the strong jet stream will prevent any rise in pressure over the uk, as long as it holds its current position and strength. but i dont think it will, not that i can back that thought up with any data, it just doesnt seem likely and when it does weaken/buckle/shift, as long as its not southerly tracking we will then get more heat via rising pressure. of course rising pressure, which id have though was likely given the current longwave pattern, doesnt always mean heat..... summer 1979 was very dry but not hot.

erm..... rather embarrassing actually, my daily weather blog on facebook , meant for friends/family, has been picked up and has spread a little.... local rag ran a story quoting me, it was the most viewed story of the day..lol.. the reoprter responsible , and others are quite amazed that i, a third rate amateur, 'beats. the professionals' all because im brave enough to trust in the anomaly charts and predict ahead of where the telly people do...lol.

try " Firstly intense heat such as we have experienced over the last few days causes some real issues for people who suffer from a range of medical conditions, in particular those making breathing difficult, so spare a thought for them struggling to breathe in such intense heat" now you might not have meant to sound like you were guilt tripping heat lovers, but thats how it reads...

air temps yes, but in the sun - which is strong (obvs) itll feel pleasant.

on the plus side, fresh air, strong sun, itll not feel too bad unless theres much cloud.

does it?... maybe up your end but its looking pretty normal, in any sun itll be nice, low humidity too in the fresher air.. as long as its not too wet and overcast it wont be too bad.

maybe because youre very vocal about it? and it comes across as trying to spoil the party? a party we dont get very often at all.

does the discomfort of others due to the heat apply to those who like cold and snow too?... i just notice heat-haters are bringing this up time and time again, as if we are supposed to be guilty for wanting and liking heat? but it cuts both ways, extreme cold causes problems too.. i bet you heat haters arent so vocal then...

back to normal... but at least we have had a little early heat which we have failed to do so often in other years.... im just happy with the stunning weather ive enjoyed.

i agree not a 76, but i wouldnt be surprised if we get something akin to 95... do you or anybody else know of june heat followed by no more heat?.. widespread i mean because the southeast often gets more heat then the rest of us - and by 'heat' i mean a spell of 25c+ on consecutive days. i cannot remember it ever happening although 1970 and 1978 had hot spells in may then nothing else.

i cannot remember june having 2 hot spells, then nothing else. i dare say it has happened before, but i have no data. one of my bug bares about summers is that if theres been no hot spell by the end of week 1 in july, its highly unlikely that that summer will be a great hot one. i checked the data on this, taking the top 20 hot summers on record, and nearly all of them had a hot spell or two in june. 1983 was the exception as it was awful until late june. so heat in june usually leads on to further heat, often larger longer lasting spells too. but theres no guarantees, its all about probabilities based on historical data - so it is looking promising if you like heat.

ay john, but ive been keeping an eye on the height anomaly that over the past few days has drifted eastwards out the states seen now as the azores high. but the current noaa charts suggest an eastward progress of that height anomaly, just flick between the two. imho, and for what its worth, that is consistent with the longwave pattern we have had since early may at least. the current gfs in deep fi also builds this azores feature across us. whilst i know theres no reload in the next 10-14 days, im expecting one by mid july. and as ive kept saying - it would be highly unusual to get no more heat after 2 hot spells in june. i dont believe this is it, i do believe history would suggest its more likely to get more then get none..... but hey, theres no guarantee..

well its true, many times in previous years id have loved a dry, fresh but warm day. but i see it as being robbed of a hot day as theres heat around.