mushymanrob

yes it is! BRILLIANT! could get very hot later next week if we get to import that hot air over spain, the +15 upper isotherm could send temps and humidity soaring later next wek.

OOOPSIE...... CORRECTED MY ERROR ..... my bad..... (doesnt in bold)

im sorry to hear you dont like heat, i do think though the general outlook for this summer isnt going to suit you. me? im the opposite, i hate cold, i feel it more and i can tollerate heat.

comparing the current ops at day 10 with the noaa chart at day (11) actually (mid point 8-14). we are expected to lose the high over us/just to our south, the azores mean upper trough is still there though, with possibly some ridging to our west. to me, its looking like the ecm will be closer to reality, but is possibly holding on the the high pressure a bit longer. so heat, humidity, and a thundery breakdown looks likely c day 9, 22nd. what the anomaly chart does allow for is the current gfs at day 10, with a strong atlantic ridge and deep low just west of our north. so overall, a pretty promising outlook it you want heat.. and i must say its looking like being the best june for (widespread) heat for many years for june. good!

ill use the charts the current gfs and ecm predict at day 8, roughly midway between what the noaa anomaly chart 6-10 day suggest, for comparison. both the gfs and ecm suggest high pressure sitting over us or just to our north. the anomaly chart to my eyes looks to me like this high will be a little further south, so perhaps not the chillier gfs version?. the upper flow is steadily westerly, so any easterly on the surface will be brief. both models though havnt got the azores low the anomaly chart predicts, and id read into that that we are more likely to get southerly sourced air pumping up off biscay/western france. so warmer/hot, humid and thundery.

its the same this morning and previously, its been consistent in showing that, consistence = higher degree of certainty, much higher then the ops... whilst it does show lower pressure over scandinavia, its nothing like some of the ops have been showing. tbh after john holmes finding after extensive research into this has proven accurate for the timeframe over and over again, im not sure why more heed isnt apparently being taken to this source.

well we will get something, but not the long lasting real heat some previous models were predicting.

i wouldnt take too much notice of the gfs tbh, the consistent anomaly charts refuse to allow the deep trough to our near northeast/east. id be shocked if the gfs has a better handle on this then the anomaly charts.

the noaa anomaly charts dont currently suggest the retrogressing high. maybe they will shift tonight, maybe not. but we have been here before with a much vaunted anticyclonic spell being picked up, then dropped or modified by the ops, before being re-instated . so ill not worry too much about a retrogressing ridge until the anomaly charts go for it.

looking like that hot spell next weekend is going t*ts up....

well, things arent looking as poor as they previously did... might not get such a bad bank holiday after all.

well its looking pretty poor now... models hinting at northern blocking, southerly tracking jet, azores low, scandinavian low, just the sort of synoptic pattern that robbed us in '85, 07, 08, 12 . im not 'writing off summer' as such, ..... but .... have we ever had a decent hot dry summer after a spell of northern blocking in late may?... possibly 83, which was cold and wet through spring until late june. i dunno, i just reckon that the signs arent good for high summer and as many of you know, im no fan of summer in september.

see, i disagree about 13,14... 13 was patchy, right in the middle of the heatwave we had an overcast weekend which was very cool. 14 was an ordinary summer... these summers were localised, and for me they meant nothing much in relation to other summers including 90/91. cutting grass for a living is my gauge, in a dry (which usually means warm/sunny/hot ) i lose work because the grass has browned off. thats why i said we are overdue for a dry summer as ive not lost much work since 2006, before that it was 2003, two hot dry summers that didnt come in '2's.

any noctilucent clouds yet?

hello... is anyone else getting a bit concerned about the suggestion of building heights over greenland? after a rather dry winter and spring, i was kinda hoping we are on course for a warm/hot dry summer . its been 11 years now since i lost much (grass cutting) work here in derby due to drought. this 11 years is the longest period in my 44 years of work without a dry warm/hot summer so imho we are long overdue (ok the southeast has had quite a few drier warmer summers - but im talking more nationwide). i was hoping this year will be the one... but now we are having a very familiar synoptic pattern emerging with high pressure building to our north/greenland, low pressure over the azores (as per noaa anomaly charts) suggesting a 07, 08, 12 type start to summer might be emerging. and, as we know, once a greenland high is established by early june, its hard to shift and would likely lead to a poor, cool, wet summer.

are we too far south for views like that?.... its fantastic! or was this taken with a zoom lens?... i have no idea how much sky they take up tbh,

no sightings?.... looks like its over...

yeah, thats only 12 days time, the last 6 weeks have flown by . as it happens i went out last night (have a short journey to make as my house isnt situated well for viewing the northern horizon) , and there was only 1 bit of cloud in the sky, about 99% clear. guess where that 1 patch of cloud was?.. yep... right on the horizon covering where the ncl's would appear ..... you couldnt make this up.

ive all but given up now, the season (locally) must be nearing its end and ive not had clear nights nor am i likely too have, not on a convenient night anyway.

my lad took a ride up turnditch , he saw some last night - faint but they were there.

thanks for that, maybe they are more visible in the mornings then the evenings?.. i have a galaxy s4 too... i looked out at 3.50 but i saw nothing but by then its probably too late.

what time was that?... any pics?...

another blank sky, where are they? has anybody seen any? am i too far south?

nothing last evening.... not totally clear, i could see the tops of cumulonimbus that had given manchester and halifax heavy showers, but there wasnt even a hint of any NCL s

dire isnt it.... looks like another washout summer, this is reminding me of 1998, a flat jet aimed straight at the uk (as opposed to a southerly tracking jet and northern blocking of 07, 08, 12) either way its wet, and cloudy... we only have a few weeks left to view any this year.