mushymanrob

looking promising for tonight, especially between 9 - 12. ?..

oh i get it, thanks

am i being thick here, i dont understand this... ?....

posts popping up on the md thread suggesting the 'snow event' is back 'on' for wednesday. if it shows this on tuesday, i might start to believe it, to me its looking unlikely away from higher ground - peak district northwards. even if it did snow i reckon it wouldnt settle, for long at best. ok if this will give you your 'snow fix' then fair play.

alert from 00 hours tonight for 48 hours, dont know how far south itll be visible though.

you might be disappointed. theres an aurora alert from 00 hours tonight for 48 hours. you might have more luck driving to northern scotland tonight/tomorrow night.

i dont want rain (or snow) id prefer it dry and mild with sunshine! we cant control it, we get what we are given and when we are given it.

absolutely nick, but as i replied earlier, the stalling/slow moving midweek frontal system bringing the snow was relying on a more amplified ridge, some runs even evolved this ridge into something more potent for cold. the noaa always suggested a trough over the uk for next midweek which would allow for a short lived ridge, but not one the strength the gfs was suggesting - the one needed to stall the frontal system and deliver the snow.

ONE bad run from the gfs and everyones downhearted... it wouldnt surprise me if the next run or two brought back the colder option and everyone will be buzzing again.... until it drops that too! lol.

i beg to differ sir... the stalling front comes about by an amplified ridge, imho (and i might be wrong here) i dont believe that anomaly charts allowed for a ridge as strong as the one needed to stall the front, and they still dont.

no different in summer.. the trick is not to believe the extreme runs, or check with the noaa anomaly charts to see if they support an fi chart.

..... more like steves spectre, because when we get closer to it, itll vanish!

i dont think its the models that are leading people up the garden path, but the emphisis on some models by some that are showing a desired chart.

yep, but its only a 'normal' cold spell, if you get what i mean. the 48 (or so) hour was referring to cold enough for snow/v cold. sorry i should have worded it better. yep, a 'broad brush' which is quite good at ruling out some of the ops more outlying runs, it saves getting too hopeful (or despondent) when some op runs 'go off on one'.

i mean 'big freeze', yes itll be a cold week, but not a week of deep cold, ice days, much snow and i dont think the noaa charts suggest a spell like that is likely to evolve, despite some 'building blocks' (awful phrase) being almost in place.

not really, i understand you would like the gfs to verify, i agree that something in between will be the most likely solution.

yep , thats how i read them too john (im learning! lol) ok, theres some 'tastey' runs being produced, which those of you seeking cold must be hopeful about. but the 'best' charts for something cold (deep/lasting) are being produced by the suits that have got a lower verification rate. i note no ones championing the ecm, but statistically it performs the best. as some of you know, im a convert to the noaa anomaly charts as i found that what john was saying about them - and their high accuracy rate was pretty much spot on. the current charts dont really allow for much cold, other then a brief 48 hour or so shot (maybe a little longer) but the upper flow remains in the western quadrant, and backs more westerly as john mentions. so they IMHO dont support some of the more amplified cold outputs, theres no strong lasting scandi ridge on these charts (please feel free to correct me if im wrong) . so i wouldnt have thought the chances for anything other then a transitory cold few days are very great, and theres no widespread 'big freeze' (3 + ice days/ lying snow) that some runs appear to hint at. the lower ecm chart is the sort of synoptic chart id expect the noaa's (esp the 8-14 day) to produce.

i wouldnt start to believe the gfs just yet, i dont think the noaa anomaly charts allow for such a run the gfs is currently suggesting for mid next week, although something like it might occur for upto 48 hours, nothing like the evolution the gfs suggests for longer is likely. of course tonights noaa charts might change,,,

sorry guys.... i dont rate snow chances in the middle of next week at all. pressures too high for anything appreciable and the gfs upper just are not cold enough imho. id have thought the best chance for snow is on monday when we get that very cold blast east of north coming across the uk. however its only really for eastern counties areas exposed to the north sea.

cheers no point, it would just get swallowed up in the snow searchers mania! lol

the noaa charts dont support much of a high pressure dominated spell, they keep the mean upper flow backing from northwest (6-10 day) to more westerly (8-14 day) , whilst theres scope on the 6-10 day chart for some high pressure influence and ridging to our northeast, theres no sign on those charts of a large anticyclonic block to our eastern half. they do however keep a strong azores high in place. so currently im not thinking the runs suggesting something of a major block to our east (other then short lived) , of course the noaa charts are not correct all the time, but have a better track record then the ops at this time frame.

i agree and disagree with you on this. because its not black and white, some people 'like' a post because they think its a well constructed informative post (which is why it should be liked) but others 'like' a post because it contains things they want to hear. classic case was the other year, gibby posted one of his daily , in depth, unbiased, great posts and only got 2 likes, when another post that was basically was a cold ramp (which didnt verify) got 35. that goes on all the time. its clear some post to have their ego massaged, one member even had a name change which was either taking the p out of his followers , or the act of an egomaniac. frosty/karl who is popular all year round says he doesnt post for 'likes', and i dont think any serious poster like fergie, john, gibby, and many more could care less about the rating system. so i ask.... whats the point? edit.... no need to go back years - just view this mornings posts. gibby 1 'like' , a post saying 'its cold' (basically) gets 14. now many might say 'so what, does it matter'?.. and thats a valid point, but surely it highlights the uselessness of the rating system.

love the limestone dales up there... i recognise the distant hills in the second photo, my daughter lives over that way!.

yep they are out all over the place. but without bees to pollinate them its looking like a poor year for sloe's.

..... beautiful day today, out of the breeze, in the sun, feels positively warm . chilly though in the shade though.