mushymanrob

great post from tamara , worth checking out! i see a case being made for snow on monday, but tbh i think its ramping. the uppers for monday as a system comes in are imho too high. we rarely get much snow from incoming westerly buffeting up against cold, nothing that lasts anyway (a few hours of wet snow before it turns to rain is common enough i guess) . of course if we get an inversion we might get some - but that usually occurrs when a more rapid attack from the west comes in (doesnt it?) . the cold starts going on sunday in the west, so with the arrival of the system on monday id have thought we would also import less cold surface air too.. but if the piper has called this right and we do get a dumping - ill doff my hat to him!

not being funny or owt, but imho theres no snow out of this chart , those uppers are far too high away from the highest ground. predicted temps for sunday (bbc) dont suggest an inversion either...

lol... indeed, it makes it hard to get or be part of a level headed discussion.. agreed re gibby, if you want an informed, unbiased, realistic view on what is likely to occur, view gibbys post, he nails it every day. (obviously there are others too) anyway - if todays cold is anything to go by, it doesnt bode well for the rest of winter. the sun was warm! (out of the breeze obvs). if this is the worst cold this winter can muster - its a poor do. (for real cold).

hi i believe gp cannot always post here as his commitments to his work and time constraints dont allow it . gp isnt god, he gets it wrong, he will be the first to admit that as hes not out to court popularity or have his ego massaged. he is genuinely interested in studying meteorology , and has a (unbiased - lol) track record second to none when it comes to trying to interpret the many factors the longer range weather probability. disagreeing with someones analysis is all well and good, but the sneering undertone stinks.

i see someone is continuing to point score against gp ... huh.... theres a reason gp has a job in meteorology and the other guy... doesnt.

indeed, the noaa doesnt waver from a mean upper ridge, but look at the 8-14 dayer, that to me suggests a bartlett type high, in which case would be bad news for those wanting cold this winter. daffs get frosted every spring mate, they droop then pick up.

tbh i dont think thats an unreasonable suggestion. if we are going to get a proper cold spell with deep cold, ice days, widespread snow, the incoming high will be the one to provide it - or not. there is scope for it to hang about for a while - as the noaa charts appear to suggest (making any atlantic inroad brief). if it collapses as per the ops and we get another large trough in the mid/north atlantic then imho itll be very hard in the time left for something really cold to evolve. however, the high might end up over scandinavia, and IF this happens then theres a good chance of a cold spell. with the exception of 2013, if theres no hint of cold by the end of january (proper cold not ordinary high pressure like we are going to get) , then its highly unlikely (but not impossible as 2013 proves) for a deep cold spell to occur. nearly always, the winters of deep snowfall, have had a shorter spell by the end of jan. so if the current ops are right - yep, id suggest a snowy cold spell will be highly unlikely this winter.

think milder atlantic air would eventually filter round it and over us.... maybe?

we had no snow on the ground 2011-12 2012-13. brief transitory snow on 2008-9, 1989-90, 1988-9.

yep i know..... but i remember several snowless ones, not even seeing a flake let alone settling. cecking local stats...

exactly.... when i joined this site (05) people were bemoaning the 'even larger teapot' because in the winters of 96-04 there was very little snow, and several snowless winters.

eh?... theres been plenty of mild winters with no snow in that timeframe. the late 90's and most of the early 00's for eg.

......... but the noaa 500mb charts predicted that for over a week now, so im not sure why the ukmo are getting the praise! see the attached charts for jan 6th, and 12th, they have consistently suggested this pattern which is why some of us refused to believe the gfs mild solution. (ok the latest suggests a weakening of the ridge and the atlantic systems returning later next week? ).

note the noaa 500mb charts never supported the gfs mild southwesterlies, for a week now they suggested a ridge just to our west slowly drifting in towards us, with the uk being under a northwesterly upper flow. yet again they trump the ops...

anomaly charts yet again look almost certain to have called this spell right.... no surprises there then!

not really, the noaa 500 mb charts have been suggesting this option for days now..

the 500mb charts still refuse to go with the gfs and now ecm regarding a quick return to mild southwesterlies. those of you seeking colder solutions should be happy with this.

well i wouldnt write things off so quickly. of course a lot depends upon whether the ops (mild southwesterlies) or the anomalies (remain under cold high pressure) are correct. IF the less reliable ops are right - then yes it doesnt look too good for the rest of winter (as as we have seen, a southwesterly flow/long wave pattern usually lasts some time) . BUT if the anomaly charts are correct, then theres every chance of a proper cold evolution - the high could easily end up over scandinavia. but yep, i expect more frosts in march then we had in december. changed mind

well theres still a huge disagreement between the ops and anoms. only the ukmo is close to what the anoms are suggesting. the gfs (00z) and ecm insist the atlantic systems will blow back pretty soon with mild southwesterlies. the anomaly charts though are sticking with high pressure close by and no southwesterly. which will blink first?

That looks like tonights noaa... Still says no to the gfs

indeed, interesting times ahead, which model suite will prove most accurate?.. tbh im abit surprised by the noaa charts steadfast refusal to moderate , and move towards a middle ground. i doubt the current gfs will be right, but maybe the noaa's will also shift a bit so we will end up with a middle ground solution those charts suggest.

i cannot see the gfs being correct nick, it is at great odds with the noaa 500mb charts - it would be most unusual (but not impossible) for the gfs to 'win' .

well as i keep banging on... the noaa charts say NO to a quick return to the atlantic systems. they refuse to agree with the gfs. now john says they are about 70% accurate for this period, as opposed to 40% odd at best for the gfs. so my money is firmly against the gfs - id be surprised if the current gfs is right. but models change - especially at that range , nothing is certain.

yep, me too, im a huge 'fan' of the noaa's as all year round they are very accurate for the timeframe given. they are the first charts i view every morning, then i view the ops and doubt op runs that dont fit with what the noaa anomaly charts are saying (when consistent). thats why i dont believe the current gfs runs that insist on getting rid of the ridge... but i guess everyone has their fav data source, i would suggest though, following the noaa's... (and thats on the back of what john has been saying - i take no credit...)

id have thought the best chance of getting deep cold is for the ridge to our west, (which is unlikely to collapse as fast as the gfs insists) is for it to drift slowly towards scandinavia. this is not unfeasible given the current projected pattern . but i admit ignores the gfs in favour of the noaa 500mb charts which suggests the ridge holds on much longer (to our west currently but theres plenty of time for an eastward progress).