mushymanrob

its going to be very wet. thats my prediction based on current model outputs.... lol. seriously though, its looking very wet over the next two weeks at least. the anomaly charts give no hope of a pattern change.

i wouldnt hold your breath on that one mate! lol yeah, because you cannot support your thoughts (which may well be proven correct) with any science, fergie does, and he hasnt written off the rest of winter, thats what others have read into it. tbh, i agree with you, i think its highly unlikely (but not certain) that we will get a lengthy cold spell. i wouldnt write off (just yet) chances of a colder quiet spell, maybe 7 - 10 days. IF theres no sign of a cold evolution in another month, then id expect no cold at all.. but atm its just guessing. thats what people take exception to. "the king has got no clothes on" as one poster once said. i understand that people like cold and steve is a cold ramper extraordinaire - hence his popularity. but no matter how detailed and seemingly good case anyone makes , if its from a biased perspective then its more likely to be inaccurate as many previous such ramps have been (and it cuts both ways). the lesson being - realism over desire, that avoids mass disappointment.

cheers for the updates, , like noctilucent clouds in summer im keen to see the aurora in winter .

i went out, 11-1130 but saw nothing, not even a hint....so i went home!

shouldnt steves post from yesterday be in here? it was after all a classic cold ramp!

looking to me like theres a shift from a mean southwesterly flow, to more westerly, so atlantic systems and their attendant fronst will track across the uk instead of tracking across the northwest. looking wet and windy for the southern half of the uk now, flooding likely too. at least temps will be back to 'normal', .

well even i am looking for at least one cold spell, not that ill like it but i believe its necessary . i think the best that could come isnt the full blown easterly as described by steve, but maybe a few extra hours of cold , maybe a day , but not the pattern change suggested. we will see.

i dont like sychophants, and theres a lot on here who hang on their chosen ones (no deliberate dig there) every word and take it as gospel. im trying not to be sychophantic here, nor overstate his worth. he is i believe possibly the most skilled poster here when it comes to interpreting all the available data.

well steves post is a popular one even if it flies in the face of the current available data... in 40 years of model watching, the evolution of something that has been missed by all the main model suits (or met charts in the old days) is a very rare event. however in weather nothing can be ruled out, and steves cold punt is a possibility. ill tell you something though, if he turns out to be right itll earn a lot of respect from fellow sceptics like me!

well hes been offered a top (met) job in america i believe, which is why he doesnt post much here. so he must be one of the most accurate LRF s there is. ive seen him be spot on over a 3 month period, ive seen him get it wrong too, so those of us who know much less is in good company! NO ONE is a perfect weather predictor, no one can accurately interpret the available data and make accurate predictions all the time for several months in advance - but id imagine gp is one of the best, certainly out of those who has graced this forum .

well even that isnt a 'given', i dont expect a 47 or 63, but theres plenty of time for a briefer cold spell even if the winter as a whole is mild. interestingly, Glacier Point has just posted a very detailed analysis over what might lie ahead next month, and whilst theres no 'big freeze' , a trend to colder conditions does look likely - IF his thoughts are proven to be correct (and assuming predicted patterns dont change). listen to the neutrals if you really want to know whats happening

of course its not over, regardless of what the weather does we are still getting short days - long nights, nature is still in hibernation mode (with a very few brief exceptions) , theres nothing really springlike, nor autumn like, the only difference to a 'normal' winter is the fact that we are a few degrees above 'normal'. winter isnt just cold weather, winters can be mild. so no, winter isnt over.

indeed there was an extremely good discussion the other evening between fergie, chiono, gp and knocker, nice, balanced, unbiased intelligent and informative discussion. imho there is a need to separate coldies from realists, theres clearly two differing groups of people interested in the weather. exactly.... no one should be chided for posting what the models are showing, especially by the seasonal loonies! .... meanwhile the chances of a cold spell evolving have downgraded as all the latest runs dont suggest the northern/eastern block will grow to threaten us. its looking like the rest of the uk will get even wetter, joining the northwest, as systems cross us. at least we have lost the extremely mild temps, and the outlook looks 'normal' with temps around average or just above. but its wet and windy or bright with sunshine and showers, we might even get a touch of frost! (think ive only had 2 this season .... incredible really).

true, but imho the signals are not good for something cold, not now the current potential with northern blocking appears to be failing. of course anything can happen, but a wild swing from something very mild to something very cold is pretty rare - most cold winters ive seen dont happen after an extremely mild start. yeah, this is a weather forum, not a cold weather watchers forum. i too have championed having a thread for cold weather watching, id like that because we could get all the seasonal nonsense out the way and us real weather enthusiasts could have an unbiased, discussion about what is really happening. i see no point at all in trying to talk up any prefered weather type if its not on offer. as for "wheres the skill in predicting mild for the uk"? has to be one of the most offensive (to the knowlegable and pro forecasters) let alone stupid comments ive ever read on here.

thats odd..... here in derby it snowed and settled on boxing day last year, this mini freeze lasted 5 days. .......... and this morning the noaa 8-14 day chart has refused to continue a cold evolution, but is downgrading it. so whilst they were trending in the right direction for a cold spell, this looks like failing now . this morning the azores high appears to shift eastwards, rising pressure over southern europe thus cutting off the atlantic systems southerly tracking exit and chances of an easterly on its northern flank. so cooler, but unsettled with the rest of the country joining the northwest in getting wetter then recently as atlantic systems cross the uk (as opposed to taking a more northerly track) . temps average - mild but not as mild as recently.

going off the noaa charts, i do believe there is good potential for something cold. northern blocking, southerly jet, its not a 'given' its not certain, however after 40 + years of weather watching certain patterns spell danger with regards to cold spells, and this is one of them. remember, im no lover of the cold, so ill not be ramping up the chances. if we are to get a cold spell, we need pretty much what the noaa charts show, at least from there we are only one step away. northern european/scandinavian highs are notoriously stubborn to shift, often lasting far longer then originally expected, even now, this evolving one was at first only expected to be a short lived affair - now its sticking around and intensifying.

its in line with what id expect viewing the noaa charts...

as i see it, the main point is that theres expected to be northern latitude blocking with a southerly tracking jet. as long as these features are in place NO ONE can rule out a cold spell, easterly or otherwise.. all the ingredients will be in place and it might take several weeks to produce a bitterly cold spell, so just because its not likely to happen fast doesnt mean it wont happen at all. of course, like november 14 theres no guarantee that we will get the final step to give us cold, we may well just carry on receiving atlantic systems and the wet unsettled (but cooler average) weather continues. i think it depends upon the relative strengths and exact positions of the azores and scandinavian highs. a weaker azores/stronger scandi will push atlantic systems further south and increase the risk of the bitterly cold air over northern europe being drawn westward. a stronger azores/weaker scandi will see the atlantic systems keeping the uk unsettled milder and wet. the only thing thats certain, is nothing is ceertain!

no! they need to be intended to be funny, because not everyone has the same sense of humour and no matter how funny some find a joke, others wont find it funny - so it isnt a joke? i like knockers little quips, it adds humour and balance to the forum that often gets fraught and over serious , especially when charts 'go wrong'.

yep... knocker is well known for his dry sense of humour, hence that post you quoted was clearly a joke, the joke being it was @ 372. it was no a serious post.

it was a joke....

i try to be realistic, if theres cold potential, ill not ignore it!

well i dont hang my thoughts on any one or two op runs, this is why these anomaly charts are so good, they are immune from the vagaries of the ops as they are the mean. im not sure what you disagree with btw, i said the chances of something cold have increased citing the changes on the noaa charts. of course these charts might be proven wrong, but theres no much mild to be had off these IF they become reality (which is my point) :) no idea why this last lines are underlined...

eh?.... dropped? these charts have rather strongly upgraded the chances of a significant cold spell, suggesting that a large northern block could evolve, pressure low over southern europe, atlantic energy exiting to our south leaving us on the cold northern side. im not lover of cold weather, but there is a gradual shift towards something potentially quite prolonged and cold.

oh lord.... mayhem will ensue... the charts are taking a significant step towards something very much colder. the favoured (by me at least) noaa 500mb chart for days 8-14 support a lot of significant northern blocking and with pressure predicted to drop over southern europe. all the atlantic energy has only one exit - over our southern regions or south of the uk, which (after saying yesterday there will be no easterly) does look likely now to increase the chances of a more easterly flow. of course all this might fail to deliver anything overly cold, but at least the new year should herald 'average' weather and could evolve into something much wintrier.