mushymanrob

if that doesnt work just searcxh on facebook aurora watch uk.

dont know if this has been mentioned, but for those with facebook, this seems an interesting site. https://www.facebook.com/aurorawatchuk/

you werent around in the early 70's then when we had a run of 6 winters that produced just about no snow. i recall a feature on 'nationwide' (topical, daily affairs programme) highlighting the mild/early spring. that was in 74 i think. the climate has always fluctuated, its not uncommon to have a run of mild winters .

too bloody right i would... i lost 20% of my income in 2013...

looks pretty normal to me mate, if all there is to be seen cold wise is a few hours for the north it may as well be mild... you know me, its all or nothing, a decent blizzard or a bartlett.

ok.... its feb 1 and theres no sign of any possible cold evolution, id have thought that it is now rather unlikely that we will get a decent cold spell this winter outside the odd couple of days here and there. however, the jet cannot blow forever, its not jupiter! and there will be a settlement at some point in the future. i must admit, and i dont like it, that march might well turn out to be the coldest month of the season...

theres no support from the noaa 500mb charts for an early spring nor a decent cold spell, although frostys highlighted charts are possible, likely even, they are only brief affairs (some might say 'better then nothing'). to me it looks like remaining unsettled and mobile but average - cool with milder days becoming fewer. not quite an early feb 83 style northwesterly, but not far off. signs that the upper pattern shifts eastwards? so maybe more colder pm incursions? but nothing settled and not really mild.

maybe because the only colder weather on offer are transitory blasts from the northwest whilst most are looking for a proper cold spell with widespread snow. that simply isnt on offer and if the noaa anomaly charts are correct (and they have around a 70% accuracy rate) then theres no such spell for the first half of february .

indeed, i think johns post is being misinterpreted. theres NO cold spell on these charts, just a continuation of an upper mean westerly flow. we can, and will, get cold northwesterlies and there will be wintriness even further south at times - but no cold snowy spell what most are looking for this winter. john did say that (on the previous run - noaas) pressure appeared to by trying to build or theres a slight pressure build to our west. but this subsequent run has not built on this, and until there is a bulge northwards in those green lines to our west - any cold northerly will be brief.

i wouldnt take too much notice of it. unless the anomaly charts support some kind of pattern change , its highly unlikely to happen.

not in my neck of the woods mate... theres never been a guarantee of snow in february, the early 70's for eg, and theres the old saying february filldyke, black or white ie itll rain or snow, the emphisis being on "or".

indeed, no real sign of anything changing there. i see they are getting excited on the md thread because of a transitory cold snap next week. but these charts are dead against it being anything other then a brief 48 hour (ish) snap - it is not the begining of a change leading to a proper cold spell, if these charts are correct.

in the words of the late great oliver hardy "i have nothing to say"

where would that thread be then?

tbh, i have no idea! are you suggesting that sunspot activity was very strong for 70 years and caused the mini ice age? i just think that IF there was an obvious correlation between sunspots (alone, and not something else the sun could be doing) and a weather event, it would be discovered by now

sorry, i dont believe in sunspots nor patterns like 3 mild winters . if it was that simple the scientists would have discovered it a long time ago.

well im not writing off winter just yet, although a cold spell appears unlikely atm, theres still time for something to evolve and with low pressure over scandinavia a northerly blast isnt synoptically that far away... however if theres still no sign by the end of the first week in feb (c 2 weeks time) then ill agree..

quite interesting i think... large upper trough over scandinavia (well done those who predicted that), large high to our south... the east/west battleground is common in winter (between cold continental air from the east, mild atlantic air from the west) , well here we will get a north/south battle. the anticyclone trying to pump very mild air northwards and over the uk, the trough trying to flood the uk with polar notherlies. wet and windy if the status quo remains, but which pressure will give way first? if the southern high gives way, we will get much more colder northerly sourced air. if the scandinavian trough gives way, the southern high will 'win' and flood the uk with more mild air. its not game over for cold weather fans by any means, but that jet has to alter and high decline which is possible.

some on the md thread too.... noticable by their absence... meanwhile the charts ARE suggesting a large trough over scandinavia in a few days time onwards. gp looks like calling that correctly in part at least (without the western ridge).

frost doesnt 'break the ground'... it erodes lumps of ploughsoil, but so does rain, wind and drought. farmers break the ground by cultivating it prior to drilling. mild weather DOES favour some wildlife, there is no rule that says all wildlife needs cold or all wildlife needs mild. butterflies were mentioned, the vanessids prefer dry conditions to hibernate, other species like the speckled wood or ringlet thrive more in a milder wetter winter. never seen buddlieas flowering in march/april either - most overwintering butterflies emerge and only live for a short time before dying, they dont rely on feeding, but try to breed. of course it depends what species youre talking about, milder weather brings out more insects which will feed any insectivores, but will do nothing for seed eaters. the point is of course that nature adapts, it always has, things increase and decrease as suitable weather comes and goes. it isnt fixed.

nature doesnt need this that or the other. things hibernate because its cold and theres no food - if its warm enough for food , they are in no danger. frosts breaking up the soil?... i have no idea what you mean.... most arable farms scuff last years crops after harvest then direct drill, very little is ploughed in autumn to 'break down' (which wind wind, rain, sun, frost does anyway) and prior to drilling field are cultivated to break up the soil to a tilth regardless of how many frosts were had..... plus most farms dont let fields lie empty over winter, they cultuvate and drill them straight after ploughing. i have detecting permission on over 2000 acres scattered around mostly eastern england. nature IS complicated, some things like a cold spell to thrive, others species thrive better in milder weather, theres no one rule that says nature likes or dislikes mild/cold, everything in nature is not governed by the same criteria.

..... but the caveat to that being "after a generally mild winter its unlikely" , as statistics prove . before anyone jumps down my throat here, please READ what i replied to what was quoted! well the noaa's appear to suggest lowering of pressure north of scandinavia, and although theres no strong ridging to our west (anything will be transitory) just yet, it wouldnt be much of a synoptic shift to produce one - the jet cant blow straight across us for too long can it? those who predicted a lowering of pressure over scandinavia with a ridge to our west could well be proven right, all it would take is for the jet to buckle or break meanwhile the noaa 500mb chart (8 - 14 day) supports the gfs @ day 10

looking windy.... noaa's have tightly squeezed isobars..

yep i do seem to recall it, but here in derby we had a few cold days, no snow, likewise feb 86, many further south had snow but we didnt.

hi richard *waves* those easterlies werenever a realistic proposition though, the noaa 500 mb charts never quite supported such a strong scand hig/easterly, they kept the upper flow in the westerly quadrant. they now suggest quite a flat pattern, and have lessened the pressure over the continent. this could well lead to further pm incursions tamara mentioned. what coldies are looking for is the mean upper trough shifting eastwards, to our north or northeast. this could well happen in early feb imho.