mushymanrob

im not so sure the high is going anywhere fast, despite what the ops are suggesting. the noaa anomaly chart is pretty consistent in keeping the high to our near west, so the uk looks like being calm and cold with sharp overnight frosts and fog issues for much longer then the current ops predict.

a poster that quotes a model run as "showing the way" is usually one that likes what that model is showing. the verification stats dont lie - the gfs does perform the weakest, just look at what its predicted in the past week or so - there was a huge bartlett high on at least 1 run, then when the cold appeared it became the model of choice as it flipped from mild to cold - but not ordinary cold - severe big freeze cold. now its back to suggesting mild southwesterlies. the gfs has been very unstable, amplifying any hints to an extreme. i dont think the gfs will be proven correct UNTIL it has support from the noaa 500mb anomaly charts, and currently it doesnt. in fact it never did when it showed the deep cold that fooled so many. i was asked about getting excited about the cold spell - i didnt believe itll be anything as severe as the gfs suggested because i didnt think these charts supported such a pattern. the current 8-14 day mean shows ridging (somewhere) to our west, we remain on the cold side of the ridge with a northwesterly upper flow. IF these chart verify (and have a greater success % wise then the gfs at this timeframe) then theres no chance of the gfs suggestion of a blowtorch southwesterly. so i dont believe the gfs will be proven right, the odds are against it - BUT as with everything weather wise - its uncertain and the gfs HAS 'won out' over other models in the past (the demise of the cold in december 2010 being case in point).

the gfs 00z was/is wrong. it has no support so is highly unlikely to verify . the ever reliable noaa 500mb charts keep the general northwesterly upper flow for the next 2 weeks, with ridging to our west. this might suggest a lengthening of the cold spell - but its looking cold not freezing.

the mail and in particular the express though post hysterical headlines every time theres a hint of cold, or heat, in this day and age i reckon theyd check what the knowledgeable (or apparent knowledgeable) say in forums. more serious papers reporting on climate change are reporting what their info tells them - theres the difference. and very few people read the gurniad anyway! lol

because a southwesterly mild pattern is our default setting

well my theory is that the hacks from the rags/ comics, read the ramped biased hysterical posts in the md thread. in which case their 'snowbomb' headlines are justified in their eyes. oh come on! dont you understand what the models actually do? they are PREDICTIONS based on current data, ever changing data at that. they are NOT accurate for a week ahead (which is when they started suggesting a big freeze) , and you should never ever let personal desire taint you view. the noaa charts NEVER allowed for the 'big freeze' the gfs (in particular) was suggesting, yet again its looking like the noaa anomaly charts are going to call it right over the ops (for that time range). too many people were lead up the garden path by people who should know better, and yet again premature excitement and hyperbole has lead to mass disappointment. yet these pied pipers still remain popular whilst us realists who doubted the amplified charts the gfs produced are ignored... lol... watch the noaa anomaly charts, coupled with realism over desire, and youll avoid disappointment.

The noaa anomaly charts never (yet) have supported the amplified gfs runs, so deep cold that those runs suggested were always on dodgy ground given that the noaa 8-14 day mean are more accurate then the gfs for that period. The deep cold was always in fi. What lies ahead though is anyones guess as theres so much uncertainty excep the fact that it will get colder.

ill take what the met o say over the hysteria presented in the md thread any day. i think the met o are right to be cautious, a 'big freeze' that some gfs runs suggest isnt a dead cert, although it will get much colder next week. im far from convinced that itll be as severe as some runs are suggesting. the ever reliable noaa charts keep the upper flow from the northwest, so i wouldnt have thought anything other then a brief northeasterly/easterly will be possible - feel free to correct this anyone if im wrong. theres the exit of this controling upper low, which is still uncertain (but necessary for the cold to arrive) . plus a possible azores low, and the azores / greenland high link hasnt even begun to start. imho people are placing too much faith in desired charts, desiring them doesnt make them happen! the outlook is complicated and uncertain, and the desired charts are still fi.

indeed, carole kirkwood said on bbc breakfast this morning that "cold was on the way, especially for northern areas whilst the south is nearer normal" and on queue yesterdays 'epic' model runs are now history with nothing special being predicted. it will get cold, but theres no big freeze nothing to rival "47, 63" (as some over excited people commented yesterday). this is why i dont see the point at all in getting all wound up over charts that boarder fi... if they are too good to be true - they probably are. the noaa charts suggest a mean northwesterly flow for days 8 - 14. these are around 70% accurate (according to john holmes study ) whilst the gfs is around 30% accurate at this timescale. so yesterdays gfs runs were out of kilter, a mean upper flow from the northwest will not allow an easterly (for more then a few hours as a surface low passes to the south). we could get anything from a westerly to a northerly, so i read that as unsettled, mildest in the southwest, coldest in the northeast, but with colder weather prevailing over milder.

Exactly, reason and objectivifTy over desire always wins. Dunno why this crap tablet wont let me edit mistakes...

Only when its certain. People never learn, the expected cold snap is still a week away and all this hyperbole this early usually ends in tears. Get excited when its 24 - 48 hours away and its certain. This hyperbole will likely end in tears - seen it all before. Yep, just as foolish in expecting charts a week away to verify. Im sure itll get cold, but these gfs charts are unlikeltY to verify to the intencity they suggest now.

.... if its too good to be true, it probably is. (gfs).

couldnt disagree more... unless you have the time to sit there and catch all the latest posts , and enjoy the hyperbole, its hard to view, to find the sensible posts thatll inform you whats really likely likely to lie ahead. there will be a lot of moaning and disappointment once the downgrades come - which is likely. (ill be pretty shocked IF the current gfs runs become reality).

of course they have enthusiasm for weather, ive no doubt some might like cold. but to refer to one as a 'mildie' (stupid term) just because he wasnt dancing about with hyperbolic fervor at the prospect of next weeks possible cold was a daft statement to make.

thats a bit premature, the possible linking with the greenland high is a week away, and it could well be gone on the next run. CrewCold might yet be proven to be correct. sorry sir thats daft. hes a professional tv presenter, its not really his job to get excited about a bit of cold, and maybe the data he has access to still doesnt expect this cold snap to be as harsh as one amplified gfs run suggests it might be!

yesterday the models suggested the cold snap would be a brief affair , lasting at best 3-4 days. today the models have flipped and suggest something much longer and deeper... we are a week away from 'the event' . believe todays charts at your peril.... dont dismiss them, just dont take them (especially the gfs) as a cert.

impossible to get any sense on the md thread unless you have a lot of time on your hands ...

well.... a huge shift towards a much lengthier cold spell has emerged overnight, the current gfs is a cold lovers dream! but of course it showed a bartlett the other day so its not worth getting carried away. interestingly the noaa anomaly charts support a lengthier spell IF the azores high plays ball, its exact position shape and orientation will determine whether it keeps us in the cold or allows atlantic systems over its northern flank to keep us unsettled.

erm, i wouldnt call a 48 hour cold snap a 'pattern change' anyway, youll not see this often, but BLOODY MILD WEATHER HAS ALREADY RUINED SPRING GRRRRR yep, i might not like the cold, but i can tolerate it because it makes a nice (early) mild spring even more enjoyable. but seeing the amount of spring flowers out now - which will only get ruined by the frosts, the way sallow catkins wont 'set', (and hence will be a poor show this spring) all will lead to a very dull spring. the daffs out now cannot re-send more flowers, ive seen magnolia and flowering current buds about to break.. spring 16 will be a poor one for flowers as a lot are being lost right now

im surprised that some more seasoned chart watchers are getting despondent about that individual runs show. the mean upper trough is expected to shift eastward, the uk is likely to get flooded with cold pm air. but this scenario is often not one that lasts. so expecting a lengthy cold spell out of the emerging possible synoptical pattern is pretty unrealistic imho. especially when you throw in to the mix a re-emerging azores high , which is only of use (for cold) if it links with the greenland high. if it doesnt, then the jet will steer systems over its northern flank and over the uk. personally id be surprised if this expected cold snap lasted longer then around 3-4 days.

you appear to have misunderstood what i was saying.

bib... disagree with that. id sooner have 1 page of reasoned, informed, unbiased and more accurate posts then pages of ramping nonsense. but then again, im here for weather, not cold only.

well if gp has got it right then there is hope ahead for those of you wanting something cold. this atlantic onslaught has gone on far longer then i expected tbh, and has to change at some point.

well its not making for very good discussion - sensible discussion anyway. there no end it sight to the mobile wet unsettled westerly flow and unless you like talking about when the next rain band will arrive, the next storm, the next strong wind, or how wet itll be - then model watching will be pretty drab over the next two weeks at least.

possibly because people are now more aware of getting too excited over one or two fi charts that dont have support?... the anomaly charts would suggest that any such synoptic chart would only be brief (although i suppose welcome) affair.