mushymanrob

im not saying the current spell is a phantom. id regard 'phantom' as ramping up what realistically the charts show and overstating the cold prospects. for some bizarre reason that style of posting is popular, even when time after time the poster/s is proven to be wrong. nowt wrong with being wrong, we all have been and all will be. but to court popularity by deliberately feeding the less discerning with 'brave' posts that have little chance of verifying is nonsensical and makes some here question the motives. can we move on now? reckon paul or pm will be hitting the delete button soon!

oh i agree it probably wouldnt work, theres an 'in depth' one now and its rarely used. think we have reached agreement now

anyway - this rubbish should be put aside or deleted, . the noaa charts which predicted this cooler northwesterly flow has been proven accurate yet again, despite some previous op runs suggesting bartletts. the bad news for all is that they are stuck, suggesting no major pattern change in the next 2 weeks. so although we should get a 48 hour cold snap, the overall picture remains largely unsettled , breezy and cool/cold.

but so what? they arent here clogging up reasoned discussion with nonsense! (note theres a difference between reasoned discussion at any level, and full blown cold chasing).

fair play, if im narrow minded because i regard phantom cold chasing as childish - so be it. i do not care! but as my love of our climate encompasses all weather types, in that respect im broad minded and a damn sight more broad minded then most on here!

yep..... but 80% of the population arent here chasing phantom cold, and the % in summer who do is very low.

im far from convinced itll be cold rain, monday to me looks like snow showers will effect areas prone to north/northeasterlies off the north sea. theres expected to be some very cold uppers and a stiff breeze. id have thought eastern counties might see some white stuff and a covering in places too... but i dont care if we dont get it.

my narrow minded remit?.... what would that be then? a liking for all* weather types all year around ( *to a greater or lesser degree) ? or to be informed/discuss of what realistically we are going to get?. id suggest that if anyones got a narrow mind, its those who focus on only 1 weather type.

nooooo.... i love newts! frog spawn = newt food!

eh? are you seriously suggesting theres NO 'i know better then you' attitude in winter? fantasy chasing is pointless, i see no merit at all in getting all wound up about some fantasy chart because it nearly always leads to disappointment. its childish imho. numbers on here in winter make it more intollerable, its ten times worse then in summer.

its not boring, its not a playground. its great to have realism and not fantasy chasing.

i cleaned mine last week, its getting very overgrown. all my frogs disappeared about a decade ago, maybe longer, ive tried frog spawn but that disappears and my newts eat the taddies..

im more extending my lawn into what was a wildlife meadow, but the trees n bushes have grown in the last 30 years so im putting a lawn down the middle (narrowish garden but long) instead of a paved path , moved wildflowers to where the path was and am tackling the bushes/trees.

ive seen nothing yet...although ive not really looked!

tell me about it.... im currently trying to re-landscape my garden to make it easier to maintain in my old age, my soils like gloop... and our little doggies are tracking it in the house... mind you its a much nicer day today, well its dry (here) and much less windy.

yes the hawthorn has been breaking here since december (odd spots only) its like it never stopped much. privet is greening up too, ive buds breaking now (i guess theyll be stopped by cold soon) . mid march is the earliest here for blackthorn, but its usually later. yep, i love spring most, the fresh vivid colours on hawthorn, the fresh growth that seems to scent the air. springtime air always seems fresher then musty old autumn air.

interestingly, i went on a road trip to suffolk on saturday (family history stuff) the blackthorn (sloe) are out in bloom from derby to suffolk. normally its early april. very early this year.

Forget the vagaries of the ops, the bigger news for coldies tonight is the more reliable noaa 8-14 day chart which keeps the messy low pressure area over the uk. This says no to the ecms rapid return to milder westerlies, and no to the gfs suggested high over us. So a longer period of cold and unsettled must increase the snow risk much longer then the few days over this weekend / early next week. Cant post the charts, on tablet.

i agree but lets face it, thats as unlikely atm as a decent prolonged snowfall... and thats the problem, we all lose out with this rather horrid weather (which is ok in small doses but not for a prolonged spell).

meanwhile - the outlook is pretty dire tbh, predominantly cool/cold wet and windy, suits no one really.

..... but there was some heavy snow in some of those winters near the top - 1990, 1995..

oh i fully accept that, dont get me wrong, im not saying there will be a decent cold spell, its just that imho the models have shifted towards the possible emergence of one, when before there was no sign. i think that small anticyclone to our north is a problem maker for forecasters.

ok.... i think some might (or should?) be regretting 'throwing in the towel' this morning as there is now a chance of a cold evolution this morning. a small area of high pressure is expected to form to our north , the noaa 6-10 dayer agrees with this too. the effect of this will be to push the colder air to our north, more southward, increasing our chances of snow. of course IF it links with the russian high like the 00z ecm suggests then it MIGHT evolve into a full blown easterly sourced cold spell. ive not been on the md thread yet, but i predict the emergence of ego massaging posts lol. so it looks like we are entering a cooler unsettled regime, at least for a while (and the noaa charts have consistently predicted a cooler northwesterly upper flow for this period) . and from this the building blocks (lol.. that awful phrase) ARE in place for something much colder to emerge. so imho we MIGHT get a cold spell, a proper one, it is possible now when before it wasnt.

ive always considered derby to be the boundary between north n south.. why? because north of derby you have hills, the peak district, northern style accents. south of derby you have a landscape more reminiscent of southern lowland britain. and its commutable to londinium.

im not so sure about that , it wouldnt suprise me if we do get a poor march/april. think youre the one whos been on the pop dude... lol... spring starts on march 1st (meteorologically), march 21st astronomically, and theres no sign at all of anything very wintry in the outlook for the next 2 weeks (going off the anomaly chats) . but it wouldnt suprise me at all if march or april turns out to be the coldest month since last october, an anticyclone favourably positioned (for cold) could do that easily....