mushymanrob

what stikes me about the noaa's, is the way theyve killed off any chance of a scandi high, one large enough to threaten us with cold, anyway. looks pretty average to me, unsettled, mobile, westerly, cooler in the north, average/milder in the south.

well thats wrong to start with.... it says 79-80 "1st Feb., 4in. 17th Mar., 6in" ... where?... certainly not here in derby! but that chart does support the idea that cold snowy februaries usually follow cold snowy spells earlier in the winter with only 5 winters out of 140 recorded snow (somewhere but not everywhere) recorded snow in feb or march after a generally mild winter. taking these stats into account it is unlikely that we will get a cold snowy spell (as in widespread and 3 + days).

we had a chilly week mid feb 78, no snow, no ice days.

yeah my lad text me yesterday evening... not strong enough for down here though and too late to travel..

not sure what the point is old chap.... 3 out of 23, possibly 2 more when there was a brief cold spell, thats 17 when there wasnt.... surely that qualifies as 'unlikely' does it not?... i didnt say there WONT be a cold snap... just that its unlikely IF theres no synoptic building blocks to allow one by mid feb (4 weeks time). i cant really see what the issue is

yes... but i said UNLIKELY... as we often dont have a brief cold snap in late feb when there was no building blocks in place prior....

yep history... cherry picking 3 years out of? how long do records go back? those events were hardly widespread, lasting, episodes , and i did say UNLIKELY , which historically remains the case.

YES...... IF in 2 weeks time theres no sign of a synoptic / anomaly shift towards a pattern that would allow a decent cold spell. the noaa anomaly charts are thought to be 70% accurate, and in two weeks time they go out to two weeks from then, (4 weeks from now). id suggest that it would be a fairly safe bet that there will be no decent cold spell IF and i do stress IF theres no 'building blocks' to allow one.

absolutely agree that we could get wintry weather into march. but i think most cold fans here are looking for a decent dumping of snow, and thats unlikely into march. the direction the models are going suggests a shift away from a possible cold evolution - and cold evolutions (or any) dont usually pop out of nowhere but can be seen evolving as the synoptic pattern gets into a favourable position. tbh, unless something pops up in the next 2 weeks (and it could do) then its unlikely that we will be getting any more snow this season.

the noaa's look, to me, like they support high pressure close to our south/southeast... the mean upper flow remains broadly southwestherly . an early taste of spring is in the offing... with chances of a cold evolution receding . is winter over? not with any certainty but the chances of a decent cold snowy spell must be taking a dive now .

ha! i detested feb 86.... we had no snow, just a biting cold wind that we had to work out in. the frost permeated down to 6" , and took ages to thaw out

gp cannot post here regularly due to work/time commitments. ... it has been mentioned on this thread by several of us that if we get a large upper trough in the north mid atlantic itll be hard to shift and would mean a cold/snowy spell (ie winter) would be unlikely.

my, theres some over generalisation going on this morning.... IF we get a mild february, and thats by no means certain, it does not mean we will get a bad summer! if the weather followed such basic patterns then the met mens job would be far easier! look at summers of 75 and 76, both were long and hot, (76 remembered more because it was drier on the back of 75). but both had totally differing springs. 75 was cold right through to the famous june snowfall before becoming hot and dry. spring 76 was a warm one, followed by a hot summer. too many are getting hung up on the odd op run, whilst the anomaly charts suggest that there COULD be a cold evolution, the fat lady isnt singing just yet!

yep, i must confess that viewing the noaa's on my screen and not my tablet that i might have overstated last nights comments, although a run of straight southwesterlies like we saw in december dont look as likely as they did previously - they are still there with high close by. trouble is with high pressure at this time of the year is that its exact position can make a huge difference as to what we get - from springlike mildness to bitterly cold. there are imho still chances of a cold evolution - but it all depends upon whether we do get high and it does migrate to the right area..

Well these charts need further runs to consolidate their consistency, but these latest charts do block the mild southwesrtetlies establishing, and have swung towards a cold block. Just how cold and snowy is of course uncertain but something cold is looking likely IF these charts are on the ball. Iim not overly bothered either, Its been too mild in december. Cant edit typos on this.. Cheers shotski

Forget the vagaries of the op runs, the big news for cold lovers is that todays noaa anomaly charts now keep the high very close to the uk, they dont allow the mild southwesterlies to take hold and stick. Theres a great opportunity on these for a scandinavian high and a very cold evolution. Of course further runs are needed to consolidate this shift but imho those of you seeking cold would be justified in raising hopes.! Sorry, cant post them, im on my tablet.

Ok.... Glad i said IF.... Because its not now looking like any mid north atlantic trough will develop in the way it was previously predicted according to todays noaa anomaly charts. Cant post them, im on tablet, but they now suggest this cold high will not be going anywhere fast, and the chances of a scandinavia block..... Goodnews if your wanting cold weather as thechances have taken a significant shift towards something cold.

yep a single run, but johns research suggests the noaa are around 70% accurate for their time period, so unless the noaa 500mb charts suggest it, ill not be expecting it .. think its all about probabilities, if theres a large trough in the mid north atlantic taking up residence as expected, id have thought its unlikely to be a brief affair and the noaa 500 mb charts support this. these synoptic patterns usually last for some time - so writing off february isnt such an outlandish thought.

hints of pressure rise across europe and into scandinavia? yep, but the mean upper flow doesnt suggest a strong scandi high delivering a cold easterly for the uk - yet at least. and cold to our east looks to be locked up whilst the uk is bathed under mild southwesterlies - for now.

hmm..... its hard to see where GP's nw ridge/ne trough is coming from, this chart stretches well into the timeframe that he suggested .

oh the irony the snow spotters were so busy talking about mondays potential, no one spotted the overnight dumping* (before it was mentioned in the forecasts) . ironic that some spend all winter looking for a snowy evolution and miss the one that delivers! lol. meanwhile those of us who were skeptical over mondays potential appear to have our thoughts justified as the tv forecast do suggest milder air ahead of mondays front. of course it is knife edge, an undercut of cold continental air would make snow potential greater, but thats unlikely to happen as its looking like milder atlantic air will be bulldozed in ahead of the front. * the caveat being that i didnt read EVERY post, so MIGHT have missed one that did mention it.

hey john, arent you breaking your own rule here?... "when consistent over several runs" ? the latest charts have shifted markedly from a mean nw flow over the uk to a mean sw flow, surely a few more runs are needed to firm up on this re-alignment before any certainty can be drawn? meanwhile a large vortex pumping mild southwesterlies at this time of the year must be a bad sign for cold weather, once in place i wouldnt have thought it would be going anywhere fast.

feature moving se wards from western scotland later today is expected to deliver some snow for..... me! ... and i dont want it! bbc has pretty mild temps ahead of mondays frontal system, up to 9c in the southwest.. meanwhile the ever reliable noaa 500mb charts dont support pressure building to our east or northeast (other then as a transitory feature) , but do suggest a bartlett type high to our near south/southwest .

me too , if they have any cold weather reference in their username i ignore them!

yep i take your point about dew points and im possibly being guilty here of 'imby - ism' as locally we dont get much snow , if any, off a westerly incursion. (assuming these charts verify - which is not a cert) id expect some light, wet, slushy stuff that half covers some surfaces before melting - at the very worst. anyway - we will see what subsequent models suggest.