mushymanrob

Not sure its worth making this point, as these charts dont handle northern blocking very well.. but that chart suggests more ridging (to our north) Eastward from the centre of the high which is to our Northwest. Under slack contours the height anomaly dashed lines tend to be more accurate for wind direction, and on that chart youll see that they are slightly south of east... So IF this chart is 100% or near, then i wouldnt expect a surface Northeasterly but more Easterly or Southeasterly ... not as cloudy.

April 1974.... i had moved on my apprenticship to a new park on April 1st, we have northeasterlies/north sea cloud for a month..will it or wont it break... being April it was really cold under the cloud, but temperatures shot up when/if it broke. This was my introduction to Northeasterlies in Derby.

russia has them now

night off for me, clouds rolled in..

im mighty confused now ted, oswin shows nothing ? for last nights display centred on the baltic states, where the radar is (?)

Nothing here, north sea cloud rolling in too, so dawn sightings may be frustrated. Fantastic displays over the polish baltic cams.. as well as scandi.. Oswin has nothing though.. not for us.

dont care, i just want to see them!

deffo lindenburg on the horizon

lindenburg.. possibly the same as latvia?

...... and poland on webcam i believe

well youre the one that pioneered the clock face and 5 day transit, transferring that to degrees is a practical way foreward. i have no idea whether it works or how accurate it is... what we are trying to do here is discover a most reliable way to try to predict them. it could save going out.. some of us cannot see the northern horizon from our homes and need to travel. plus im trying to promote awareness and interest in nlcs on taw.. so i need to be able ... if possible ... to be able to predict them so we can tell people they are likely. my earlier post regarding flensburg was tongue in cheek, hence the "lol"... on the daisys we could see just how large the area of nlcs was... sometimes they are small, in which case viewing webcams wont be accurate and i remember last season, someone, and i think it was you, forgive me if not..posted "flensburgs on fire" ... but here we got nothing, nada, zilch, zero... so in that case the areas was small. other times flensburg has had a display that we have seen... a large area .. all im trying to do is examine the possibilies of prediction... as things stand, there are no conclusions! ill test out theories until we can find one that works or discover we cannot predict.

Exactly... the number of times flensburg has had a great display and we have had nothing....

lol.. of course!... cooler air is wrapped around the low... its common.. and in heat often is the trigger for thunderstorms.

Forget Flensberg.... if thats 9.4 degrees East, which it is, and 3 degrees = 1 hour, then by the time Flensbergs display has got here, itll be light! lol

click the "context" button, theres another shot of them from tartarstan... kaluga is 36 degrees east , tartarstan is 50.... sadly that means, according to my calculations, that those nlcs will be north of the uk between about 2pm and 6 pm.... today.

and ive read an article saying the mesosphere is cooling down! lol... co2 having the opposite effect up there to down here..

Ive given up..

2 years ago tomorrow i got a great display, there was nothing just before ten to eleven, but summut appeared by five too and by five past they were becoming clear. Peaked about 11.30

Yet... lol.

great echoes on maarsy ..... not a saugsage on the euro webcams, and ive looked at loads..

So is the EPS in this timeframe, whilst its true, neither predicted next weekend high over us (which hasnt happened yet... so...) they do still go for regression albeit delayed... whether that happens or not is anybodies guess, but at that timeframe accuracy isnt always there.

Yes, you correctly called that... despite what all indications were suggesting

NLCs orbit every 5 days 5 days x 24 hours = 120 120 into 360 degrees = 3 degrees per hour.

some info Flensburg 9.4 degrees E - so nlcs 3.+ hours ahead Husum 9 degrees - nlcs 3 hours ahead Norderney 7.2 degrees- 2.5 hours Oudeschild 4.8 degrees East - 90 mins Husum / Dockkoog - Blick nach Westen - Foto-Webcam.eu WWW.FOTO-WEBCAM.EU Webcam Husum / Dockkoog - Blick nach Westen Kaiserhof - Norderney / Ostfriesland - Blick Richtung Nordwesten - Foto-Webcam.eu WWW.FOTO-WEBCAM.EU Webcam Kaiserhof - Norderney / Ostfriesland - Blick Richtung Nordwesten

that makes sense as poland is in front of kuhlungsborn...