mushymanrob

Ive just been back out, but Capella is obscured by cloud encroaching from the Northwest... So if there is anything, ill not be able to see it.. A quick drink and off to bed for me ps............ my cameras easy... it has night mode...lol

reports from europe including netherlands at 11.40..

Nothing on mine, last one taken at 1134

Dont think its worth stopping out, that high cloud will obscure any low or weak display

Just arrived at my vantage point to be greeted by a lot of thin cloud obscurring the horizon.. think theyll scupper any chances unless theres a high, bright display

me too, im off in a mo

NLCs at Irbit and Rewa Poland... but most of Europe is cloudy... ill be going out IF that cloud coming in from the West isnt here yet..

Clouds expected to arrive from the West overnight.. its a case of timing... Eastern areas should be ok..

nowt happening tonight.. cloud with no chance of it clearing..

not sure why the despondency is so high... this cooler unsettled spell has been well flagged by the anomalies for some days now. it just goes to show that despite the "hi res"ops detailing things not being so bad, the anoms look like triumphing yet again. im not likeing the size of that block to our northwest, itll hold the low in place for some time...

looking like saturday night might be the next night we get clearish skies?... if thursday isnt..

thanks, i was just trying to get some context..

A question.... On the 8th the CET was 13.3c, on the 25th it was 17.1c ........... so in 17 days we gained 4.2c ... My question is.... what would the CET have been (aprox) if we had had the warmth all month that we had between the 8th and 25th? Would we have beaten 1846's 18.2c?

This is not what we want to see for the first week in July.... cool, fresh, sunshine and showers....

Ive seen that, but if the solar cycle IS to blame, then we would see a dip where it peaked in the past... i make it going off graphs that the last solar sycle (24) peaked between 2014 and 2016... but instances of NLCs didnt drop in that period, nor the previous SC23 between 1999 and 2001...

IMHO the Anomaly charts perform best when we have a regular long wave pattern... they seem to pick up the next likely ridge or trough very well. They struggle though with a more (northern) blocked irregular pattern...

No... they are a blend of the GFS op and ensembles, the ECM and CFC ensembles in varying degrees.... thats why IMHO they perform the best over this timeframe. I also use the EPS and as posted the ECM anomaly charts... I emphisise that i agree theres no 2012 scenario here, but that theres low pressure in the driving seat. How unsettled remains to be seen and yes itll be worse in the North... the South may be pretty average.. we are more or less on the same page, its just theres potential here for some poor weather.

Disagree, the unsettled conditions on the anomalies was always early July, the EPS 14 days before july 1st had a low sat over our North predicting unsettled, ok its not july 1st yet - but will it REALLY not be unsettled with low pressure being the dominant driver? I do agree though that its not another 2012.... but when seasoned ex pros like John Holmes says - "Goodness if the 6-10 turns out to be even close it is suggesting not very summer like weather! Look at the contour line that crosses northern England, where it originates, and a pretty low height as well. I have no charts to prove so but it must be a near lowest ever height for early July over northern England IF it turns out to be true." and that gets support of another ex pro (Knocker) then we would be wise to take note. Heres the current anomalies, for beyond 7 days... the chances of these being far off the mark are (sadly) extremely slim

Well i missed them! and this mornings more impressive display. There was no sign on any webcam, and as my skies werent that clear, i couldnt be arsed... Interesting, i saw nothing obvious on the flensburg cam scrolling back...

Not a peep on any euro webcam, and 30 odd are clear.. Oswin has nothing.. Actually, theres more chance of seeing the aurora...

Yep, thats the one i saw on several cams, the one i posted wasnt the best. They seem to have vanished quickly.. dreadful season so far.. and we are nearly half way through..

Those at flensburg and husum have cleared, no sign here and theres too much trop cloud to see faint ones. Im packing up

Yeah its hard to tell if somethings going to develop

Too much cloud to me northwest

Faint ones at flensburg and husun.. husun is closer to the uk