mushymanrob

Its looking quite clear after the showers have gone.... might be out tonight...

It is.... but that an FI prediction that currently doesnt exist...

Im not going to argue about the detail in 10 - 14 days time as that chart you posted is close enough to the one i posted to make it pointless.. they are both on the same page. Only there is no tropical cyclone, nor one expected... so this is a moot point really..

EPS going for a very gradual improvement back to average, but we still cant lose those heights to our Northwest and as long as they are there - im not sure theres a sustainable route out of this pattern

Im still learning these charts as im sure many of you are. But from what i can get from this is that theres no strong Azores high, but heights are waxing and waning to our Northwest.

Yes, ive been viewing these daily, i like them.. but i dont like what you have highlighted and thats the shift from higher pressure back to more neutral. However they arent particularly bad either. I guess the way to read these daily outputs is to look for the mean pattern.. Yep, a return to "average" looks likely. The EPS though supports the NOAA making them fairly safe imho.

heres what i can see of flenny vs uk Flensburg since May 20th, 20 cloudy nights 2300 hours 2.30am 4/6, 5/6, 25/6, 8/7 5/6, 15/6, 16/6, 28/6, 3/7, 5/7, 8/7 UK evening morning 21/6, 25/6, 3/7 16/6, 20/6, 21/6, 26/6, 30/6, 4/7, 5/7, 6/7, 7/7, 8/7 Make of this what you will, but for some reason morning displays seem twice as likely as evening.

This is pretty dreadful And its gets no better right out past the 20th when things were hoping to improve and this chart offers no sign of a real change

Hmm.. just found this on these cams after all these years. We can view the whole season by going onto these setting, we can see, on these cams of which Flensburg is one, exactly when NLCs were seen... now if we have a date/pm/am sightings in the UK then we might be able to see which is the best predictive cam?

Mixed fortunes then... My excitement over the NOAA 21 was wrong Predicting morning displays because they are seen over Poland/Germany the evening before looks sound...

How annoying... europe is alight with them and we get sod all... I cant stop up though

Flensburg looks like a mega display honing into view

Flensberg, lindenberg, Kborn all have them.. 22.23 pm

they are now over poland...

hmm nothing over eastern europe and there should according to the latest pic...

Well this is interesting... the latest NOAA 21 is out and the clouds at 2 days away (purple circle) are now 1 day away.. ie tonight! (huge display over russia now)

@Kirkcaldy Weather Firstly... im fully aware that patterns dont switch instantaneously Secondly... EVERY source ive read regarding the lag between an MJO phase and its effects here says 10 - 12, 10 - 14 days, including the pros on here. You are the only one ive seen saying theres no definite timespan. Now if im wrong, fair enough, but why would these figures. Be banded about if they had no significance? Thirdly... you posted june phase 5 composit charts to support your "bullseye" MJO predictions.... but, as i proved, the MJO hadnt orbited through phase 5, at all, so the MJO couldnt have been responsible for that synoptic pattern. Now if anybody can correct me on this then im happy to be corrected! I just want the facts.

So the anomalies are right then... lol

i will be out tonight, the skies crystal clear and is unlikely to get cloudy... it might be my last chance of the season - as clouds are likely to be an issue... i think the lastest ive seen them is july 14th....

Rewa has them.... but i cant see any anywhere further West ..... possible morning display?... Edit.. Kborn has too...

Well i couldnt resist going out, despite zero evidence of anything on any euro cam.. my view

I dont agree about the ecm being amplified, not by much anyway. All anomalies point to troughing over the UK, which is not what i want to see.. but there we are

id have thought that any morning display would be seen earlier over europe.... rewa in particular, and lindenburg, 1034 and theres nothing ...

top 2 cant play...file corrupt.

NLCs over Russia, ive seen nothing from any Euro cam just yet. Plenty are clear. Still quite a bit of cloud here... I make that poor for tonight, but promising tomorrow...