mushymanrob

but there is considerable support for troughing.... in fact, every anomaly suite has it over the mid month period ... it would be highly unusual (but not impossible) for them all to be too far out.

really?.... out of the top ten warmest junes in the last 100 years... 76, 22, 18, 03, 06, all were great hot summers... cet wise anyway...

fresh air is the best from that ... i prefer thunder from france.. lol

.......... and im completely knackered through lack of sleep... clear skies, some great displays across eastern europe..

dont shoot me..... this is about as bad as it can get for mid july....

Depends which anomalies you are on about. The ECM anomalies that go out a month havnt been accurate, the EPS has been bang on, and wrong. The NOAA charts have been accurate... Can we "write off" the next two weeks after this plume?... in terms of heat - yes. These charts suggest below average temperatures and unsettled. As has been said, theres no quick route to heat off these charts, assuming they are going to be accurate... i hope they arnt, lol..

there were some weak ones over flensburg briefly ..... i was actually awake at 3am, saw nothing from my house so there might have been a low horizon display, i cant se that.. but no big one at that time.

cloudy here... nothing showing yet on any eurocam... rewa is clear but not yet dark enough

Because youre posting June composites for phase 5..... The MJO hasnt been in phase 5 ! ............. in fact its been in the COD so there barely any forcing from that

Flensburgs clearing though, might be an indicator for a pre dawn show..

Looking like another blank.. :(

Got about 50% cloud cover here... have to chance it. 2 years ago my last sighting was july 14th.. times running out and im far too tired for a dawn vigil

Lead balloon time... But these charts arent what heat seekers want to see.... but theres inconsistency as this 8-14 day chart is a big shift from yesterdays...

Flying blind tonight.... clouds cover nearly every webcam... mixed skies here...

From what i can see its 22.6c the same as 1976...

.... but that chart i posted is for mid JULY.. not June.. the MJO is in the COD and breifly hits phase 2, which for July is neutral for the UK. I see no correlation between the MJO past phases and the charts we get now. The lag is 10 - 14 days... not whenever it suits.. We didnt get 44c

Rewa is starred... to its North are the NLCs seen there on the evening of the 29th? I saw them on the webcam about 10pm... Rewa ia 18 degrees East, NLCs were photographed from the uk at 3am on the 30th. 5 hours = 15 degrees westward... so at 3am the NLCs should be over the North sea so visible from the UK to our northeast. So its looking like Rewa is a good camera to predict morning displays... more observations needed,... Rewa - Zatoka Pucka widok z kamery REWA.WEBCAMERA.PL Widok na Zatokę Pucką i plażę ❤ . Dodaj do ulubionych kamer Rewa NOWOŚĆ - zobacz piękną plażę.

Not sure what was meant by the MJO bullseye... its in the COD most of the time and the phase 2 July composite is pretty neutral for us. And the EPS, which first flagged up this cool unsettled start to July TWO WEEKS ago (almost bang on), doesnt support the ECM 00z possible pattern change, instead has next weekend plume being short lived before returning us to average (or just below) unsettled.

i remember that too, it was so cold i put my donkey jacket on at work...

Just in case anyone is viewing tomorrows chart and was thinking of "writing off Summer".... heres something to ponder

But is that true? as most of the time we have had an Easterly feed, so the Atlantic wouldnt have had any impact?...

we cant calculate without the timestamp.. well.. not easily.. we could work backwards after a decent display here and see where the likely culprits were a day, two days even 3 beforehand.

theres no timezone on that satelite image, just a time and date...

Hold on..... if i reported NLCs on the Polish Rewa webcam at about 9.30pm our time... Rewa is 18 degrees East.. so those seen at Rewa are likely to be the same ones seen here around 3am.... If this is the case, then Rewa could be a predictive tool for Dawn sightings.... And Irbit is 62 degrees east, so whats over Irbit one night should be somewhere near us the next night...... which ties in with Arnies punt going off the new satelite that tonight should be a good night... Theories to check out. ... Rewa is the same latitude as Northern England, Irbit Scotland.

High cloud.. i watched in in daylight coming in from the West ahead of todays system... your vigilance paid off this morning