mushymanrob

Sorry old chap...i still dont "get" it... its July 12th and you are posting composite charts for JUNE ..... And the MJO HASNT phased through 5-8.... I just dot get it at all.. explain please... somebody?

Dunno how, it was dark, lol.. i tried manual focus but that didnt work, it wouldnt sharpen (on a zoom over about 8x) I cant get on with pro...tried many setting, night mode is a lot easier and gives better results.. thanks, ill try...

Finished now.. very low, but a welcome sight. Must say im disappointed in my samsung galaxy s2 ability to focus.. great camera, fantastic zoom, but not the best for nlcs

On the verge.. i actually woke up and took a look at the cams at 2245.. that got my attention.

Got em

Coming into view... low , right of capella

Nothing here.... lol..

morning display almost certain, but now?...

June 22 ..... i was going to bed, and looked out my window, there they were, i knew straight away what they were. Because of being on a southerly slope and with houses and trees to my North, i cant even see Capella, and most displays are below Capella. There was one band right over to my West too, didnt think they could be NLCs but they were..

I was away last year the first week in July, i didnt see any after i got back on the 8th. But i did get 1 decent display (evening) in June and several weak ones. Not had a very "high" display since 2020...

no real joy from the latest EPS, just the same old pattern thats developing now. This is in line with the NOAA charts i posted earlier... but in saying that, the South might not fare too badly

They are the *predicted* mean charts for the timeframe they cover, they suggest that throughout this timerange 16th - 24th low pressure will be the mean driver. Yes we could get an odd day of high pressure here or there.. but the general overall pattern these predict is a cool flow and low pressure domination. Theres no point discussing how accurate they might be, lets just wait and see IF or HOW accurate they turn out to be.. bearing in mind that they are subject to change.

........... im not, its been the worst year for 4 seasons, (since i started seriously) . Just 1 weak sighting for me in the evenings (cant do mornings), and only 3 evening reports, none of which have been even middlin.... Im fed up, disheartened, tired, and the latest ive seen them was July 14th, despite going out until the end of July. With cloud expected to be an issue this week... for me, im giving up..

WOAH! ... i thought you was a newbie, but you cant be if you know about Glacier Point! ... c,mon .. fess up! These charts arent always the first to pick up on a new trend, but they are the ones least likely to be far wrong. IMHO they dont support much of an Azores high for the timeframe they cover. In fact they suggest cool and unsettled, well until the 22nd at least (the last couple of days in their range are most vulnerable to change). IF these charts are accurate, then theres no return to average in this timeframe. As @johnholmes pointed out yesterday, the 500mb airflow is coming from a cool source, the Northwest, over Greenland. Given the Ops track record vs these charts in this timeframe, id back these charts everyday and be right 8/10 times. Of course they are only the latest predictive charts and could change - and i sincerely hope they do!

ok

getting there, but the point is that its delayed yet again.. it was supposed to be average by this weekend.. but this chart has a low prssure anomaly to our northeast when earlier runs didnt

Latest EPS delays the return to more average conditions - again....

Not a sign, nights are drawing in fast, i can see nothing that could indicate anything this evening and without displays visible over poland/germany its a gamble whether a dawn display is likely

Oh.... heres a sobering thought, this time last year was the last time i saw them, theybyear before was the 14th...

The main problem is thst most of northern europe is clouded out, do apart ftom some faint ones over riga and some possible from a few other eastern european places we cannot confirm. Anyway, im out... and its not looking good

youre saying this isnt nlcs?

really?

huge displays from russia, baltics, atm...

we still have that stubborn high to our northwest locking in low over/near the uk below average, unsettled/showery... any recovery will be very slow

Ok, so heres the NOAA from the 7th.... the question is..... which clouds gave the morning display? and the evening displays over Northern Europe?