mushymanrob

ecm falling in line with the noaa 500mb charts, this is the same more or less as yesterdays.

Trouble is, a lot can happen in 5 days... Ive tried to work out from that chart , where last nights, tonights, tommows and the day afters are likely to be. I guess last nights were those on the edge of the red 5 circle, in which case tonight circle 6, should indicate something. Not so sure about the next 2 nights though.

What are the chances tonight then?.. i havnt actually been viewing the new NOAA-21 , is the 5 day rotation looking good for tonight/tomorrow?

The EPS has been showing slacker pressure now for some time, only for it to develop further as it becomes closer. This is just about the coldest chart you could get.. the flow at 500mb originating over the Arctic Circle and Greenland. Will this be cool, fresh, sunshine and showers or will we get a blanket of cloud? (cold air, warm SSTs) absolutely.... i saw no LRF for Summer that predicted a record breaking warm June followed by a very cool July... assuming the current predictive charts will be accurate of course.

Noaa anomalies have troughing domination throughout their 6 - 14 timeframe, with a mean upper flow originating in the northwest, so these dreaful charts shouldnt be a surprise.

Polly has clouded up Europe, probably not many useful cams tonight, and its still cloudy here.. dont think ill be making the effort..

A lesson from history... Junes 1940 and 1970, both very warm (second behind 1976 in the last 100 years - and until 2023 beat them all) July 1940 and 1970 became very cool, August 1940 became hot, August 1970 did not. You cant write off Summer just yet! (despite the fact that up to yesterday the CET is 14.9c, only 1980 and 1965 were colder in the last 100 years)

True, but when it follows the 6-10 day chart with a confidence of 4/5, plus the EPS (different suite) agrees, then with consistency (which there is) the accuracy rating is much higher

that isnt really fi for the anomalies though, as their accuracy rate for further ahead is significantly higher then with the ops. of course these charts are only predictions, not fact, and are liable to change - but when you get 2 different anomaly suites being consistent... they are going to be close to the mark.

latest eps has low pressure after the weekend all the way until the 20th.. the noaa has low pressure until the 18th..... mean upper flow at 500mb is northwesterly sourced... cool and unsettled, sunshine and showers or longer spells of rain. not 2012 though. EPS Model – 500mb Height Anomaly for Northern Hemisphere | Tropical Tidbits WWW.TROPICALTIDBITS.COM EPS model forecast of 500mb Height Anomaly for Northern Hemisphere

i woke up at 3.30...lol.. mind you, i cant see that low from home..

No it doesnt, veiw the ecm average.. bang in line with the NOAA anomalies.

Not for me... good luck!

if you can find the data for that... however, whatever, wherever that might be then please go ahead and research that yourself! lol. the subject was warm/good junes leading to bad/poor julys... ive proven that there no link and that actually warm junes usually lead to decent julys.

But statistically its simply not true! Yes the atmosphere was different, we were coming out of the little ice age so i dont think that prior to 1923 (a nice round 100 years) should be considered as things have changed. Heres my findings, based on "the warmest" and not by setting a benchmark temperature The top 20 (3) warmest Junes are - 1976, 1970, 1940, 1950, 1960, 2003, 2018, 2017, 2006, 1992, 1933, 2021, 2005, 1982, 1947, 1966, 2020, 2004, 1949, and 2016, 2010, 1957, 1959 all tie Straight away we can see some "big" years in there, 1976, 2003, 2006, 1947, 1949, 1933, 2018, all had "good" Summers... but how did Julys stack up? - 4/23 had cold Julys (1940, 1960, 1966, 1970) (as in coolest 25%, CET wise) - 13/23 had warm Julys (1976, 2003, 2018, 2017, 2006, 1933, 2021, 2005, 1947, 1949, 2016, 2010, 1959 , 8/13 were part of a hottest Summer) - 6/23 had dry Julys (1976, 2018, 2006, 1982, 1949, 2016) (driest 25%) - 3/23 had wet Julys (1950, 1960, 2017) Theres NO statistical evidence that warm junes = cold/poor julys.... warm junes are far more likely to bring a warm and dry July.

So what?..... The temperature is the temperature and needs a level playingfield. Anyway, @summer blizzard ive found that the top 20 hottest Julys CET wise over the last 100 years (the christmas pudding being more relative to today rather then a couple of hundred years coming out the little ice age) strongly suggests that warm Junes are twice as likely to lead to a warm and dry July then a cool wet one. Thats using the Met Offices CET and EWP data and using the top 25% and bottom 25% in each catagory to define warm/cool, wet/dry.

Then i think where we differ is the "huge difference to the surface conditions"..... id suggest that the anomalies narrow this down, at least most of the time.. but by carefully matching the nearest Op runs to the anomalies does mean we can...and i DO... produce a pretty accurate forecast. For me the game changer has been the EPS, because IF the EPS matches the NOAA at days 8 and 11 (centre point of the 6-10, 8-14 day charts) then being on a slider this focuses the pattern much better than by using the NOAA alone. So pattern matching to the closest hi res op has increased forecast accuracy.. even for an ordinary bloke like me! I predicted a cool unsettled start to July 14 days in advance, i could cite many other occassions as well... this is all because of what the anomalies were forecasting (and nothing to do with any superpower...lol).

Actually i will address this now im not on NLC watch! The NOAA charts are the 5 day mean 500mb/hpa charts, so not the same as surface. You cannot define a daily detail off a 5 day mean. That chart you posted does allow a 24/36 hour plume, but it also tells us that its transitory and low pressure to our Northwest will dominate the 5 day timeframe. When used in conjunction with the 8-14 day chart you can determine the most likely evolution at 500mb. And i now use the EPS which usually supports/confirms the NOAA version. These dont give you surface definition, but do give you the range of what surface conditions are likely to be. They can "flip flop" but thats very rare. They are most likely for the timeframe they cover to be far wrong. They did predict this current cool unsettled spell, in fact werent you putting a "not so bad" spin on it only last week? I find that their biggest area of inaccuracy, is the timing of the pattern they predict... the chart you use is centred on the 7th, when a more exact match might be a day or two later. But these charts, and the EPS, the latest ECM daily anomalies AND the time longitude charts all predict troughing, albeit shallowish, to dominate through the mid Month period at least.

ahh.. twisting facts here... if you are going to use 16.4c as the benchmark for warm junes then you must apply the same benchmark for warm julys and augusts and not a much higher one.

evening poland displays = uk morning displays... looks like we have a prediction system for early mornings...

BINGO!

Well lets see what this weekends chart verifies at first before any decisions are made!

Im talking about the anomalies. In particular the NOAA.. i use them daily and not very often do they embarrass me. People often dismiss them, but offer no actual proof, ie one of their predictive charts in comparison with reality. They often spot emerging trends well before others, usually between 8 and 12 days. Im sorry to have this repetitive, cyclical argument but will always respond to charges that are inaccurate.

How often?... extremely rare when these are consistent, and they are... plus support from the EPS and ECM Anomalies.

Displays coming into view across poland and chechia or whatever its called now..lol reckon a pre dawn display is on tomorrow morning... edit.. lindenburg too coming into view