mushymanrob

id have though snow showers further north was pretty much standard fayre for the uk in january. its not going to be that cold this weekend, just chilly... as i type carol kirkwood has temps of 12c for saturday north of the cold front straggling southeast uk... yep, the noaa charts prove likely to be correct over gfs fi again... no surprises there really.

i cant understand how people cannot see the intrinsic beauty in all the types of weather we get... thank god (not literally) for the variety we get !

good point sir! a valied one too.... however theres no real sign in the anomaly charts of major ridging being a player near the uk in the next 2 weeks. currently.

not sure what there is to discuss this morning... just detail on the overall pattern which screams 'average'.

Id have thought the gfs 12z is practically in line with what the noaa anomaly charts would allow... Ie not much of a ridge at all, and a feature youd pretty much expect in a mobile westerly flow. Theres no pattern change there... Sorry.

cheers for that, however some people have indicated they think otherwise... ho hum.. interesting to see whether this fi ridge actually becomes reality and if so what the nature of it will be. so far the gfs is alone going out far enough to suggest its existence, but every gfs run poses a different solution to what might become apparent. but i do think there will be a shortish cold spell, something like a week or so, before this winters done, and one that will be more widespread then the one i got just after crimbo.

so, a stand off emerging between the anomaly charts which dont appear to support an atlantic ridge ... yet ... (as john and knocker has already mentioned), and some gfs runs which in fi suggest there might be. (even the 00z doesnt make much of it). itll be interesting to see what happens then, has the gfs picked up on something? will the anomaly charts catch up, or will they yet again prove they are the best indicator of the general pattern upto 2 weeks ahead?...

what gets me is being accused of being a 'mildie' (and therefore posts from a mild basis) just for not joining in the 'spot the cold' game. ill post pro-cold when there is cold in the reliable, and i make no claims to be able to predict longer range. but i am a convert to the noaa charts john champions, they ARE a good, best? indication of the general pattern we are likely to get. yes i like mild weather...but i like all types of weather, that includes some cold in winter. i like mild in feb because it has a special type of feel about it...

Try red... Lol

Oh.... And IF we get a cold hearted winter, just watch who gets the backslapping accolade, ... And it wont be the pros or senior forecasters who have made long term intelligent, reasoned cases.

You have got me (us? I cant speak for ido) all wrong. I make absolutely no claims to be a fantastic forecaster, im not, and youll find that some popular rampers have a terrible predictionsuccess rate. I say what i see from an unbiased a view as i can, and if that means dispelling cold evolution myths then so be it. I dont court popularity, that means diddly squat to me, but i do court what i believe to be realism. When theres a real, tangible case for cold then ill post that. But ill not play the 'spot the cold evolution' game. Those who do are welcome to do it, its a seasonal bit of fun, but fantasy island hoping is pointless unless its understood that its unlikely to happen

Lol.... Maybe, but mild southwesterlies are more likely to verify, no probs dave..

Google it... Its an index of tropical convection in the west pacific which drives our weather somehow. Trouble is, its not accurate. Each phase for each month supposed to lead to a certain synoptic pattern here in the uk. The fervent are pinning hopes of it because a phase 7 usually leads to something cold for the uk. It is however like other weather predictive tools, inaccurate. Madden julian oscillation...

Its not currently looking good for this change then! Ill believe it when the anoms show it or/and when it reaches a semi reliable timeframe. The first lesson i learned when joining here ten years ago is dont believe fi... Watch it, but dont have high expectations as it more often then not leads to disappoint

Id be very surprised if these current fi charts verify, fi charts have a pretty low verification rate whilst the noaa anomaly charts have we are told, a 70% odd verification rate when in consistent agreement, which currently they do. So ignoring them because they currently dont support a favoured synoptic pattern is id suggest foolish

But dave, the current expected fi cold snap is just outside the 10-15 day mean... So currently theres no discrepancy between the (pretty reliable) anomaly charts and the other data. If theres going to be this mid atlantic ridge, it will show on the noaa 500mb charts before long.

its quite clear now that we probably arent going to have a 'winter to remember', as cold evolutions have successivly failed to materialise. thats not ruling out though shorter snaps like the one some of us have just had, and im still thinking that there will be another. time will tell, but if nothing becomes apparent in the next few weeks, then its unlikely to occur later in feb.

no probs.... maybe i shouldnt have sounded so catagoric, you are right of course the weather is chaotic, it isnt set in stone that the next two weeks wont produce a deep cold evolution, but it is unlikely.

guys... there is no quick fix here, statistically we might have 2/3 of winter left, but to get a decent deep cold spell the general synoptic pattern has to evolve. the current one is a million miles from a cold evolution, in fact it could hardly be much further away. cold (or hot in summer) spells dont just pop up out of nowhere, there has to be a pattern in place that would allow it... now there was in november, and december, but now its drifted further away. we can get a good idea of what lies ahead by looking at the prediction charts for the upper atmosphere, the most reliable are the noaa anomaly charts, and they have consistently projected a flat, stable, westerly flow for the next two weeks at least. so whilst the synoptic pattern through most of november and december might have given us a quicker route to a cold spell, we are currently further away from that , theres no quick fix likely.

no no no karl.... youre supposed to ramp up the colder pm incursions so i can give an alternative view, youre not supposed to be reasonable! spot on .... theres no getting around it, its all looking very average overall which is pretty dull for this forum because theres nothing much to get hopes for except staw clutching. and if the EC anomalys that knocker mentions prove correct (no major change this month) then it does look rather bleak for deep cold this winter. no, im not writing off a deep cold spell, but as time passes its becoming gradually more unlikely. in saying that, i do think a shorter widespread cold spell is likely, maybe a week - 10 days, but thats just a hunch based on recent events. nothing science based so its probably nonsense

Well just three days ago we were expected to get cold zonality after this weekend with very few milder incursions. Over the past few days all that promis is now ten plus days away, so hanging hopes on much pm, cold zonal, is in my view strawclutching. As things stand there will be some, but for it to dominate is surely chasing fi dreams until something more substantial enters the semi reliable time frame. Looking average to me for the next two weeks at least.

return of the great double act time... lol.. see i disagree with this.... why?... because the building blocks that first raised their heads in early november are gone, northern blocking - gone, eastern blocking - gone, western blocking (that was expected to produce a pre crimbo freeze, then a post crimbo freeze) - gone . (yes some of us got a cold snap) as i see it theres no sign of any building blocks, the noaa charts have a strong westerly upper flow for the next two weeks, the signals for blocking from any quarter have decreased and are now practically zero. so surely the trend is away from any cold, not towards increasingly wintry?... of course if you take the deepest fi charts as evidence, then ok... but until charts like the current gfs 00z predicts reach the reliable/ semi reliable timeframe then they cannot be taken seriously. sorry, pc awaiting re-formatting unable to download and post charts.

wont it?... this morning theres nothing but average on the cards for the next 10-14 days in any model run. the noaa 500bm are consistent in their expectation of a strong westerly upper flow. any ridges will be transitory. looking pretty wet and windy for the first half of jan.. with alternating mild/cold blasts between systems. no sign of settled, no sign of fog (other then low cloud/hill fog), no sign of deep cold in fact after the various 'building blocks' over the last two months have failed to bring a decent widespread cold spell (note widespread - not everyone had the mini freeze i did!) the synoptic pattern this morning looks a million miles away from any cold evolution. yeah i know, this wont be popular, but as things stand its accurate?

Ihate new year Because ive seen far more then ive got left to see....

Heres hoping to an interesting and varied new year weather watching, peace and happiness to all