mushymanrob

good agreement this morning, with a pretty consistent pattern predicted for the next two weeks or so. giving pretty solid support to the week aheads northerly backing northeasterly some bitterly cold weather for a while, snow chances too, before the ridge topples supporting for the third day of course its not a done deal, however this evolution is pretty solid for three days now, and whilst the timing might be pushed back (or brought foreward) i wouldnt bet against the noaa upper flow prediction being wrong. i dont buy the jma's easterly, nor the ensemble members who suggest an easterly, as the anomaly charts are more accurate when in consistent agreement (john holmes has been spot on imho regarding the accuracy of these). however IF the noaa charts show either of these possible patterns (ive drawn on in gold how the upper flow contours should look) then an easterly would be most likely. but until/if they do, theres no deep lasting easterly imho.

fair play but as i mentioned its not strictly an outlier as it has support on its evolution upto t240. both the gfs 00z, 06z and 12z plus the ecm 00z and 12z agree as to the evolution upto t240, the mild chart i posted . ok theres loads of time for this to change, its far from nailed, but its what the current outputs suggest.

based on what?... the gfs 12z might be mild in deep fi, but upto t240 it has support from the noaa 8-14 day anomaly charts, it has support from the previous gfs runs AND it has support from the ecm 00z AND 12z... so the gfs around t240 is not an outlier.

dont know why this happened but my reply should be here A wild outlier? When the ecm 00z and 12z plus the previous gfs supported it And the noaa 8-14 anomaly chart supports it? It might well not become reality, i am aware of that, but a wild outlier it is not.

So whats the answer? Just talk about whats coming in the next 120 hours or so and ignore everything else? No body is making any clear statements about what WILL happen, people are suggesting what might be the most likely outcome based on current data. Surely thats what forecasting and this forum is all about?

Successive runs agreeing, noaa anomaly charts (most accurate when in consistent agreement, which they are) , think its reasonable to describe it as starting to firm up.. And fi on the 12z is pure heaven for me! Mild and pretty dry. Of course i know its likely to go pear shaped, but if coldies can salavate at fi prospects then so can i!

starting to firm up

no it certainly wasnt a snipe aimed at you, i missed your comment . last night afew people cherry picked charts showing an easterly, i dont know who they were and i certainly didnt want to single anybody out...hence the broad statement . i think it was the jma that showed them, i dont know i dont view it. imho there can be too much information at hand and its easy to cherry pick which data anyone can use in order to promote an agenda. i viewed my usual charts this morning, and posted them, showing no easterly, and my last line made it perfectly clear that my post referred to fi charts that could change...so no, of course its not a done deal.

not really, theres pretty good agreement , its shown currently on the models, so whilst might not happen its fair game for comment.

bib.... well no one can actually say that. but IF the current gfs projections for mid feb verify, then tbh i wouldnt have thought another cold spell with snow potential (for longer then 3 days) would be very unlikely .

easterly? what easterly?... placing too much hope on one unsupported run is a mugs game imho... so yes, its cold, yes theres some snow around, but its going to be far from a decent dumping or big freeze for most of us. and after tuesday whilst it remains cold with hard overnight frosts (and fog i suspect where the breeze dies down) its a pretty normal cold spell. for those of us (me! lol) who dont like february cold, the outlook this morning is good with strengthening agreement that the cold will fizzle out slowly over days 7 - 10 . yep its currently fi.... and could of course change though i suspect its the timing thatll change more then the outcome. no easterly here.

Im confused. You say its a model thread that should discuss the models without any bias.... Have you not read the model thread? Its totally biased in favour in winter of cold options. Thats why this threads question was posed. And it has been cold biased strongly in winter in the ten years ive been here. Less so in summer because theres less interested

i dont get it.... im uncertain why the tv people are downplaying snow chances for most of the uk when we have charts like this surely theres huge potential there for alot of people to get snow, but the tv bbc forecasters are only talking about coastal areas exposed to the northerlies as getting any?...

hmmm.... my concerns are that this cold spell was supposed to be a 2-3 day affair, ended by wednesday... but run after run has gradually pushed back the end of the cold. we have building pressure to contend with, that could deliver 'early spring' by mid month (unsettled mild temps 8 - 12 c), or a beasterly IF the ridge does build scandinavia bound. high pressure over scandinavia in feb = strong cold potential . i havnt the knowlege to give 'coherent analysis' , but have the experience to realise that high pressure to our notheast COULD prolong the general cold theme for some time, and even produce a 'big freeze' (as in ice days). so whilst its currently looking just 'rather cold' it could still yet develop into something colder. its not looking very snowy though after monday..

"can you judge a man by the way he speaks or spells is it more important then the stories that he tells" mr you're a better man then i - the yardbirds 1966

im a very poor speller, (guess some have noticed lol) but even i can spot those!

a joke?

fi doesnt change much, only in the detail, its been pretty consistent is suggesting high pressure building in from midweek next, then sinking. the noaa charts are 70% accurate according to john who studied them and found that they are pretty accurate when consistent. i totally disagree... that chart i posted IF it , (or when it?) verifies would bring exactly the conditions i love about early spring... mobile mildness, birds start singing their spring, courting, songs. heck we even got that yesterday, mistle thrushes, great tits, hedgesparrows and wrens . for me, early/mid feb at its very best.

at first, but follow the evolution, that charts clearly builds in the pressure favourably over the last few runs (sorry deleted the charts so i cant post to compare) and supports eventually the gfs fi vision. so a mild, unsettled period by mid feb must be a low confidence, but plausible outlook. especially given the noaa success rate when in agreement.

lol... im told that IM the only one who thinks like this... the poll shows clearly 33% (a significant number) of members agree. theres clearly a difference between those who hunt cold and those who want realism. of course when theres no cold the md thread is pretty much functioning as usual. when theres potential, its ridiculous. anyway, the decision has been made,

and this morning.... im not so certain, the models have shifted significantly towards a snowier, colder spell that lasts longer. however... SPRING is on the way! after a cold spell the anomaly chart is moving in the right direction suggesting that by about day 11 pressure should be shifting to our east/south with a mid atlantic trough sweeping mild southwesterlies across us .... if only

Theres some overramping hype posted tonight thatll only feed the disappointment when it wont happen. People never learn.

But its a particular type of low pressure, given that the term 'long wave pattern' is used. I think its apt, and describes a smaller low as opposed to the controling parent low. Seems fair enough to me Loving the gfs 12z, abit chilly for a few days before early spring kicks in with mobile mild southwesterlies in fi...

winters not over, but its looking like one thats been dominated by the azores high... big and strong, sitting where it has, over the azores, looks like itll prevent and lasting deep cold as it allows the jet over the top of it. it also has prevented and lasting mildness, by sitting where it has.... so this winters looking like itl turn out pretty average, as i doubt there will be a major shift in the last 5 short weeks but.... if there was, it might be that the azores high shifts eastward and we get an average/mild last third, especially IF this verifies obviously this would suit me but is deep fi. at least it would consign this wretched emoticon to hibernation until next november!