mushymanrob

we i was referring to the runs as a whole, but will monday be a 'deluge'?... or just a grey damp persistent rain for some. anyway, today its looking abit different, with lower hights to our southern latitude, so more mobility and larger rainfall totalls are likely? (but no washout flood thing).

i must be looking at different charts to some, whilst wednesday and thursday look mild, theres not much 'mild' aside from then. its looking average, with normal late february weather on offer in a changeable, mobile, conditions. suits me! just because theres no cold spell on offer doesnt make it 'mild'.

i like the outlook this morning... plenty of mild enough days on offer, i likes my early mild and the best thing is that pressure will be high enough across southern regions to keep the worst of the rain well north...

knockers interested in weather , not ramping and playing the 'chase to cold' game... which tbh deserves abit of light hearted mockery as its daft!

they know nothing though..... they did that in april 68 only to lose the clutch to snow and frost! as for winter being over... the main lesson to be learned to avoid disappointment is to put your desires aside, and dont believe the hype! only get excited when somethings certain, within a reliable timeframe. but you wont.... next year will be the same.... and youll moan yet again.

thing is karl... theres nowt to say. those of you who have posted have covered the topic very well , its looking very 'normal' to me, abit of cold, abit of mild, unsettled-ish but not extremely so.

Completely agree with knocker... Talk about straw clutching. I cant see anything other then pretty normal late winter weather in the offing. Theres a right average mix on offer. Could something cold evolve? Yes, of course it could although chances of something greater then a two or three day wonder are pretty remote and id strongly assert that theres at least as much chance of something mild evolving. Ps.... Has anyone seen the current gfs at t384? Today its almost totally opposite the that outlying cold easterly that got some excited! (on tablet, cant post charts)

been pretty normal here... but ive had snow and a couple of ice days. the only thing ive missed out on is fog. its certainly not been mild.

Should have come here yesterday then, it was great lol Yep its looking cloudy n chilly here, but dry n calm so good outdoors.

isnt a mild winters day 'springlike' (early spring)? in december it would still feel like autumn... because as i keep insisting, theres more to a season then one single weather type... and more to a season then weather! my snowdrops are out, some early daffs are out (there is an early variety) , the scent in the air was that glorious fresh spring type and the native birds were singing their springtime courtship songs.... in 9c and bright/strong sun that could have passed off for mid-late march. anyway, its dull and chilly today, as expected (lol) but at least its calm and dry.... great weather for outdoor winter work!

a pretty daft reply if i might say so. yes the sun is pretty constant in its radiant heat/light etc... but what isnt constant is our atmosphere. yesterday in particular it was unusually (but pleasantly) clear. there was hardly any noticable pollutants or moisture so the sun felt warmer then usual. the stars were very bright last night too, you could see loads. as for 'springlike'.... good greif... how many times? ... spring isnt A particular weather type...there are loads of weather types that youd expect in spring. for a few hours yesterday in my area (and i dare say quite a sizable chuck of the east) it was very much 'springlike' ( as in weather youd expect in early spring) even philip averay descibed it as such! not only that but there was a butterfly flitting past! (daft thing, it obviously hasnt read your post! lol)

youre right, there is potential for a scandi high /easterly. the fax @ 120 suggests the expected trough undercutting and joining the other in the med. omly low potential though but with gathering uncertainty it must be plausible.

why do you castagorise 'spring' as t shirt weather?... theres FAR more to spring like weather then just abit of warmth and sun. went out yesterday afternoon without a coat on as i could feel the sun... that to me can be described as 'warm' for early feb! didnt you go out yesterday? i did. the air was unusually clear, the skies were crystal clear and the stars last night were many and bright. with the low angle of the sun, and no breeze, the sun yesterday could be felt diirectly on the body, all of the body, not just the 'upper facing' areas like in summer. so yesterday the sun did feel strong, and it was warm, tinglingly so.... plus i took the dogs a walk with no coat on, just in my shirt quite comfortably as long as i was in the sun (it was chilly of course in shaded areas).

clear, sunny and now warm in the strong sun... very springlike.

id have thought the odds really are stacked against any deep cold now.... and i do have some sympathy for those of you who have had no snow. you could have had mine! but it isnt nice waiting all year for your prefered weather type only to have it miss you out. i hate summers with no dry warm/hot sunny spells, so a snowless winter for snowlovers isnt nice!

im more confused then ever now...... the poster i quoted agrees with your summary that agrees with my question, so how can it be both a 'debacle' and 'open to changes'?.... anyway.. interesting that the current outputs suggest the 'end of week trough' might be a greater feature then they did yesterday, and open up a slightly more mobile picture next week, (as opposed to a quick return to high pressure dominance previously suggested). the anomaly charts though dont really support much in the way of mobility for the southern half of the uk http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php with high pressure close to our southwest. so a return to a more high pressure dominated outlook then mobile one will resurface in future runs?

Debacle? What do you mean? Im assuming youre referring to the trough later this week? Doesnt that just prove that it works? By reviewing and updating data constantly? Outputs change especially five days away . Or have i totally missed the point? Lol

hi ba i was going to reply but john has done that far better then i could (after all it was johns lead i was following, ) i guess we all have our favoured data sources, well.... after bleating on about a dirty high for so long, then other members picked up on it, and even the tv graphics started predicting cloud.... i wake up to a frost! well we will see how this pans out over the next 5 days or so, cloudy or clear (or somewhere in between) was always going to be a close call and reliant on atlantic moisture circulating the high as was previously predicted.

when was the last time we had a mild feb?.... like the great one of 1980? febs recently have delivered more snow/frost spells then mild ones. theyve been pretty average suiting no one. like 1975?.... dunno i could. i loves my springs, but what do i like/dislike more? cold spring/great sumer as 1975 or great spring crap summer like 2007? spot on..... both northerlies and easterlis can produce the goods or fail...

in terms of deep cold/snow its probably accurate though.... theres no sign of anything cold or snowy, we are starting a long period of high pressure domination that shows no signes of producing cold, its feb 7th, 3 weeks of winter left... does anyone REALLY believe something will emerge?... ok it MIGHT, but is highly unlikely. amen to that! but not a summer like 07 please! its fantastic this morning.... calm, dry, overcast, boring?...well its fantastic to hear the birds singing their spring songs this morning, robins, song thrushes, great tits, blackbirds, mistle thrushes.... THATS what i love about feb...early signes of spring (my fav season).

but that chart has 0 chance of verifying as the anomaly charts dont suggest/allow a large scandi high and a strong easterly. i really would urge people to view the anomaly charts first, then view the ops to see which solution is most likely. thats why john holmes has been so accurate as you yourself dave, acknowleged. the anoms this morning suggest much as they did before.... high pressure sinking to our south, then building in again from the west? (or southwest), which to my untrained eye suggests pretty much what the ops are generally saying... this high drifts off but will be replaced by another over the next 10-14 day period. compare yesterdays 8-14 dayer and todays (ok im a day out , todays isnt issued until this evening but go with the gist) and that appears to build in high ridging in off the azores ? this morning that does suggest (as has been mentioned) the uk under a nw upper flow, but where the surface air originates will make the difference between tm and pm air, with the high looking close to us, maybe a similar situation to what we have today?... a northern flow but sourced off the atlantic.

frosts will be patchy imho... that will depend upon whether the cloud or where the cloud breaks. its looking mainly cloudy until fi . looks like dismissing yesterdays ecm @240 was justified this morning as that cold northerly seems reserved for europe. the anomaly charts shifted slightly, the 6-10 dayer supports southern latitude high pressure, bartlett teritory? with a second high (as suggested by the gfs) building in afterwards... so a chillier spell perhaps as the high moves in. the gfs in deep fi suggests this high too sinks to a southern latitude, maintaining the dry theme. temps are varied, it might turn mild, but over the 2 week perion probably averaging out at... average? or slightly below.

spring like conditions at this time of the year arent temps of 15c.... 10c - 12c would produce early springlike conditions, as the birdsong will testify!

To a degree, but on the other hand theres not really much to discuss.

Thats not what the local tv people are predicting. It clouds over on saturday as we import less cold moist airoff the atlantic circulating around its northern flank with temps not far off normal. We lose overnight frosts too IF it remains cloudy.