mushymanrob

bloody hell guys... its EARLY MAY! what do you expect?... (to the two posts above)

yep...i fully agree, im no fan of the azores high being sat there , if its sun and warmth youre after. hence i refer to it as the azores enemy! but it is preferable to a 07/08 style washout summer.

indeed, and the noaa 8-14 day anomaly charts supports this solution but it currently isnt really close enough to bring any real warmth, at least it suggests the jet will track further north of the uk, so it wont be as wet as its likely to be this coming week at times. but with an upper flow north of west, temps possibly struggling to reach average especially if we get cloud (which is likely?)

.... yyyyesssss ... and with good cause as yet another lengthy dry spell has ended with alot of heavy rain, and the outlook is unsettled too. seems a pretty common occurance , long time dry breaking down into alot of heavy rain, like the scales have tipped in the complete opposite direction. i suppose that if we get the may monsoon now, it might break by summer...

well im not so optimistic for the outlook into mid may that looks like a low pressure dominated spell, with the upper flow switching from a southwesterly to a westerly, even slightly north of west with the upper trough sat over the uk (8-14dayer). a pretty unsettled spell, cool at times with plenty of rain but sunnier spells too.

as do the noaa anomaly charts.

yep... very consistent, the nw/se divide you mentioned earlier looks pretty likely, although the latest 8-10 dayer appears to be hinting at a more wsw upper flow so possibly flattening out?..

the anomaly charts are sticking to their expected outlook, high somewhere close to us/to our near east, mean trough in the north mid atlantic. upper airflow from the southwest. so id expect the ops that show a warm enough, unsettled flow (northwest being breeziest, coolest, wettest, whilst the southeast is sunniest and driest) southwesterly pattern to be the ones most likely to become reality. of course that doesnt rule out temporary incursions from the northwest or south from time to time. to me, the outlook is looking pretty normal which isnt bad for may

Dunno, dont view every run, i trust the noaa anomaly charts.

Eh? Its spring!

conflicting outlook from the main 3 this morning @ t144 ukmo anomaly charts say no ecm anomaly charts say no gfs anomaly charts say yes! so the gfs 00z has the support of the noaa anomaly 6-10 dayer, which has been cosnistent. (well id suggest the gfs is closer to the anoms @ t144) and the 8-14 day outlook, again is consistent the ecm @240 the gfs @ 240 so according to the anomaly charts, the gfs has the best chance of being closest to the mark, that cold high the ecm suggests doesnt look so likely.

noaa looking decent ... looking like a mean upper trough to our west will retrogress and pressure rises to our near continent when comparing both charts a warm enough, unsettled but not overly wet away from the northwest in a southwesterly upper flow. pretty decent weather

doesnt it?... it can do but of course isnt a hard fast rule... (the point being that writing off 'pattern matching' is as inaccurate as pattern matching itself... sometimes patterns do follow similar routes, but not always by far.) however... historically there does appear to be a correlation between dry/wet. long periods of mainly dry weather do seem to change by giving way to a lengthy wetter period. id suggest a lengthy wetter period is more likely to follow a lengthy dry one, then a period of 'less dry' weather. so im not so much saying spring 07/08 were warm and dry therefore summer 15 will be wet, as much as 'after a lengthy dry spell its likely to be followed by a lengthy wet one'. this would apply to any time of the year of course. the anomaly charts are now suggesting a southwesterly upper flow, so maybe the outlook isnt going to be as dry as the period we have just enjoyed. edit... by 'wetter weather' i mean reasonably wetter then the seasonal norm, not just an end to dry.

Personally i dont think its good news for summer IF we get another dry settled spell next week. It wont stop dry sunny settled and warm until september and many recent dry springs have resulted in washout summers. So id prefer unsettled weather now for a while.

hmmm .... thats one large greenland block, shunting the jet on a low trajectory. seems very familiar (summers 07, 08). could we be in for a similar cool unsettled / wet spell for may/early june?.. that high could sit there for several weeks. IF this transpires though it might be good news for the heart of summer?...

anomalies arent yet showing anything thatll alow much of a pressure build, until they do, ill not be getting any hopes up

yep, the anomalies have not supported a mid atlantic ridge off the azores high which is needed to give us the deep draw northerlies 'anyweather's post (above) refers to. whilst the ecm still suggests a shorter cold northerly, other models are backing away from that and the ukmo and gfs now look more like what the anomalies would allow. so it will get colder and more unsettled, but not looking so likely now that there will be much wintiness (away from high ground in the north).

Im not moaning about it getting cooler, it happens and the gloriousdays weve had are in the bank. But its the possible severity of the frosts that concerns me. Ive seen it before in 81 and 84 where just four days of cold and wet killed clutches of eggs/fledgelings. Its clear though that the models dont really have much of a clue other then itll get colder and wetter...

those charts are horrific.... i cant imagine the damage to wildlife frosts like that would bring. fledgling chicks will die, insects killed, plants damaged/killed. great.

the famous year when we had snow in the first few days of june, but by the weeks end the blocking high that had sat to our west since early march, shifted to sit to our east... hot summer from june into august followed. 76's drought came on the back of a dry 75, with little rain through the winter 75-6 too after a hot dry summer (75) and cold dry spring. 76 success had alot to owe to 75. spring 83 was cold and wet..... summer 83 was hot and dry spring 03 was warm and dry... summer 03 was ..... yep... hot and dry! spring 75 was cold and dry.... spring 76 was warm and dry... both had great summers... so no correlation between weather types in spring to summer.

You werent around in 1975 then... 3 months, all spring, of recurring northerlies or northerly sourced air.

ive noticed that the anomaly charts arent really supporting a mid atlantic ridge and a long draw of cold northerlies that some runs are suggesting. but a draw indirectly of cold air with unsettled conditions does look likely to see april out and may in.

looking like theres going to be a chilly/cold spell.... yep there will be good air quality and the sun will feel warm... oh well, it cant be sunny and warm all spring, on the plus side itll stop the molluscs chomping on my emerging lilies overnight!

..... but only if we dont get north sea stratus, which many eastern and central areas will. the north and west will fare best, some glorious sunshine and warmth for them. but the further east you are, the longer you/we/i will hold onto the overcast cold conditions. so its a lottery... will/where/when the sun burn off the cloud?

Hmmmm that ecm run isnt good for eastern areas. Very similae charts in april 1974 produced cold grey overcast mornings and into early afternoons. It was warm when the murk burnt back, if the murk burnt back. We could get sun from midday, or five pm.. The west of course fared very well, lots of warm sun. The east though.... Hell... But at least it was dry.