mushymanrob

i saw similar to this although not quite as distinct image lifed off google to illustrate.

... but in the sun itll feel warm! ..... thatll make today the 250th of october!

GOT EM! last night c 22.30 but were not as clear as previous pics posted on here . layers of misty clouds, rather indistinct, perhaps not a good night or im still too far south for anything spectacular. took pics, and the pics are ok on my camera screen....but when i uploaded them to my pc they were almost totally black

it appears that some locations are getting poorer weather then others. 17c here yesterday, beautiful! in the strong sun... spoilt by the strong wind... nowt to moan about (except the wind) . i like it hot and humid too, i have no trouble sleeping in the heat.

nothings changed in what i posted. we will get 5 days of pleasant mainly sunny and dry weather... something hot might emerge as long as we are dallying with high pressure, and this morning it seems we might well lose the high pressure influence after this week. so 'something hot' is looking less likely. its looking like we will stay on the cool side of average, and might become more unsettled after this week. so no early heatwave, but no monsoon either and until a southerly tracking jet establishes (which its not expected to do) with a strong greenland high, im happy enough to get a 'normal' summer.

true, the dreaded north sea stratus which im prone to in my location. but currently theres not much northeasterlies predicted viewing the runs as a whole, so that aside.......

yes its certainly warm, in or out of the wind, and the wind doesnt prevent tanning. frostbite? lol...

why are people so hung up on temperatures?... they arent expected to be seriously below average, and theres far more to a pleasant summers day then mere temps alone. temps are no indication of air quality or sun strength, both of which feature commonly in moans about summer (humidity - cant breathe, overcast/bright skies = poorer weather then clear blue even though overcast can be warmer).

not a sustainable pattern id have thought, so whilst it might well happen, imho it wouldnt last long. not that what might replace it will be better... thats open for debate. lol.. indeed... im not worried about temps on the lower side of average, as ive mentioned several times before, itll feel very nice in the sun. hmm.... not liking the 06z so much, the threat of an unsettled northwesterly isnt as 'good' as previous runs, so lets hope its just wrong and not picking up on a new pattern. but 4c below average in strong sun feels better then average under cloud....

too far off as theres great uncertainty. itll be clearer by thursday?...

hmmm... is it just me or are some posters trying to put an overly negetive spin on the outputs, even to some degree of glee? overall, there a lot of high pressure dominance/influence, its never far away, with anything unsettled or/and cool being transitory. yes we are likely to get a cool northerly next weekend, so what? its not expected to last more then a day or two before more high pressure re-builds. frosty illustrates this by posting the mean charts. we currently have a very promising 5 days odd (away from the north today) of dry, fresh, sunny, weather with temps average or there abouts (according the the bbc weathermen). whats not to like? and theres a strong promis of more to come after a blip or two. i reckon theres a damn good chance of something hot emerging sooner or later, as long as we are dallying with high pressure at this time of the year, its only a question of time imho.

exactly! plus id add all junes over the last ten years with the exceptions of 06 and 10 , assuming of course that this june continues in the current vein .

some ridiculous posts recently regarding the gfs 06z,,, its mainly dry HORRAH! there would be alot of sun HORRAH! apart from a blip here and there itll be reasonably warm, feeling warmer still in the strong sun HORRAH! and there not much in the way of a strong breeze HORRAH! so what if theres no real heat just yet... that will come, it will turn hotter, (i say so! ) and if it turns wet we would be yearning for sunny dry weather!

indeed... but its not looking like one of extremes, either heat or wet...

'cool' is all reletive though, 1-4c below average for june is still very pleasant, especially in the strong sun. plus its looking mainly dry under high pressure, so all in all its alot better then many previous early junes. as for the second half of june.... who knows! theres educated guesses from the knowlegable but even they wouldnt like to call that with any degree of certainty. personally, this coolish pattern weve had on and off since march will break... i think theres a good chance that itll turn much warmer, as opposed to a washout... but thats an uneducated guess.

Dry and average... Thats pretty good. A lot of useable weather on the gfs 12z with a hint of some heat later next weekNot bad, not bad at all.

I dont really understand this... Surely the point of the model DISCUSSION thread is to do just that. Discuss the various possibilities that the model data throws up at us, and that will incur some hopecasting. It would be pointless let alone bloody well boring if we only mentioned what was certain.

A stunning 12z, just goes to show the retrogressing high isnt a cert. Mind you, this is unfortunately likely to be an outlier.

just spent a few hours outside with my o/h and the dogs in my garden.... was splendid! the sun is very warm, the air fresh, the sky clear blue (in between the faur weather clouds). ok, not warm enough for the pool or sitting out in an evening, but its a decent start to summer IF this 'cool' weather continues!

oo ek.... worms - can - opened... lol a fair reply cc although i dont fully agree with it myself. the point is really that if many years of expereince can trump computer models.... we wouldnt need computer models! however saying that you didnt think the time was right for a pattern change (away from a westerly based high which has been there or thereabouts since march) is a fair call. the pattern will change.... its a question of when. (and of course what too... id prefer this mostly dry, fresh, cool sunny weather to raging zonal wet stuff). in all honesty, the models did suggest that we might have had a pattern change, but it looks unlikely now. anyway, its june 3rd.... thats about ten weeks left of 'mushy summer' (i dont count mid august onwards as summer ) left!

yes matey i did pull you up on saying " For my money there's just too much pressure knocking around at the high latitudes for June as a whole to be anything of note in terms of sustained heat." , because thats not what the models were showing with any consistency, and wheres the data for "june as a whole"?... you didnt post any supportive data, so it just read as a 'spoiler' imho.

the voice of sobriety! i cant see what people are moaning at tbh, i expect tose moaning at the lack of real heat will be the same ones moaning at the humidity when it comes! you are right, as is frosty, as long as we manage to avoid cloud issues (north sea muck) itll be very pleasant in the very srtong sun. interestingly, only a few hours ago next weeks high was expected to drift eastwards,.... now it retrogresses.. frankly i dont care! as long as we have high pressure influencing our weather it will not be 'bad'.

... but at least its dry !

... and i think we are long overdue for a long hot summer... its been 9 years now (the longest in my work history (self emp) ) since i lost much work through dried up grass.

tbh... those colours are misleading, the blue suggesting colder then what we would get on the surface. true, no heatwave, but a lot of fresh, sunny, weather which in the strong sun would feel very pleasant . of course this is in deep fi too, so isnt worth worrying about as its unlikely to verify. before then, we have a lot of warm, fresh, dry sunny weather (friday aside of course). i cant see what there is to be despondent about. summer cant win can it?... if its hot people moan about the humidity....if its not hot but sunny and fresh people moan its not like summer.