mushymanrob

it doesnt get any better then this (if its hot humid thundery weather you like) . and the ecm follows through with more high pressure and warmth/heat building after a thundery spell the gfs (00z) doesnt agree though, and into deep fi suggests a southerly tracking jet but the noaa 8-14 day anomaly chart doesnt support a southerly tracking jet... (yet, anyway) although it might evolve that way. but for now the anoms have plenty of high pressure days 6-14, which would suggest the current ecm's evolution being probably more accurate.

What do you expect for early june? These current predicted charts are superb! Theres not much unsettled viewing the whole runs, and i defy you or anyone to find a better start to june since 1975! Of course thats assuming the current runs verify. But there is good concensus and anomaly chart support. Indeed, we have had 28c before in may... 1978 springs to mind

WOW! the gfs 12z is a stunner! On tablet so cant post charts, but IF that came off it would produce the best start to june since 1975.

... true the northwesterly has been rather nagging, but sometimes its brought us some great air quality, fresh, pleasant, ... we are infor some humid stuff in the near future.

i dont get why it 'is not a good run'... theres a lot of dry sunny warm weather on offer.

fully agree... i dont know what charts some people are looking at, or taking one in isolation. the ops are all going for some sort of pressure rise, and warmth if not heat. if anybody thinks there will be wall to wall sunshine and heat for the next 2 weeks starting on the 3rd.... they are bonkers! we are on the cusp of seeing the best start to june for many years... with a lot of fine settled warm weather around.

id suggest that a warm spell is certainly on the way... whether its dry or not is immaterial. the gfs 6z is awful?... for cold lovers yes! it shows quite clearly a verey warm/hot spell later next week, before a thundery breakdown before pressure rises again. (connection working) thats a damn good run! a lot of heat/warmth, dry, sunny weather... this would be far better then many recent early junes weve had... to quote frosty... BANK!

cheers see, to me they dont scream 'large anticyclone' sat over the uk, as many of the ops have suggested. whilst high pressure will be around and in charge, theres support for that iberian/biscay low which the ecm in particular shows. to me its looking abit messy, where id sooner have the high being a strong feature. but thats a week off yet, and of course theres time for change, and im whittling about the detail when something warmer/anticyclonic controled is pretty much in the bag. but youre taking one ukmo chart in isolation. viewing the previous frames youll see that pressure rises from the south, pretty much in line with what the ops are showing. its uncertain just how the evolution will occur...some ops suggest the first pressure build will fail to take control but a second one will. others suggest itll be more straight foreward. in short...the ukmo @144 doesnt worry me one bit. yep, the low to the south is perfect, as the ecm shows, view the 'uppers' (the 850 temps) and between the high to our northeast, low to our southwest, we get a draw off a hot continent. looking like our first thundery potential of the summer . the 06z gfs also has the hot uppers over us by next friday, followed by an azores high extension across the uk . id suggest that theres a real good indication that we will get something much warmer/summer like, even if its not clear blue sunny skies and heat. ALL indications point to a summery spell, even hot, its just the detail thats uncertain.

dunno what charts you are looking at sir... the ecm and gfs currently have the 10c upper isotherm across us by next weekend... thats hot and humid... some thunder?.. yep.. isnt that what youd expect in 'summer'? but the chances of a large anticyclone look in doubt now. although pressure appears higher, and thats as good as nailed, the models are struggling to define the nature of this build. the noaa 8-14 day anomaly doesnt evolve the +ve into something more substantial. in all... a mess! (connection probs, cant post charts atm)

dont get hung up on any one run... the ops vary , sometimes greatly. the anomaly charts are far more stable and reliable at predicting the upper air pattern 6-14 days time. and they are solid in predicting high pressure will build in later next week. true, its not set in stone. they can be wrong, and the high pressure build might not be one that delivers heat/plume , but theres a real chance of this happening .... and im often pesimistic!

i fully agree . i can understand the caution some posters are expressing, but from next wednesday onward theres consistent agreement across all data sources that pressure will rise from the south, gradually, to herald a spell of settled, dry, sunny and warm weather. ill be happy with that this early in summer! heat can come later (assuming we dont all get it this time). it also makes the coming fresh, unsettled and wet weather necessary if we are heading for a dry spell.

the delay doesnt bother me... id sooner a gradual evolution to a sustained anti-cylconic dominated spell then a rapid evolution. totally unscientific, i think, but me and my friend (a weather watcher too for 40 years) tends to think that a slow evolution seems to last longer. think of the cold march the other year, that was predicted by the models (ecm in particular) for weeks before it happened. so im pretty happy with these charts suggesting some kind of high pressure domination as we enter into june.

how is it misleading?... all models show a pressure build into june, the ever reliable anomaly charts suggest high pressure build into june. its not misleading to talk about what all models are consistently showing! it is misleading though to equate pressure rise to heat, because the exact position and orientation of the expected high is far from determined. the chances of high pressure domination later next week is fairly likely ( but not nailed, as you say), and it doesnt have to 'cover the nation' to control and influence the nations weather. in saying that though, this morning its looking like pressure build has been put back a couple of days or so, and of course might yet not happen... but there is good support for it still... its the timing thats uncertain more then 'will it/wont it'

nothing last night, not that i saw on my way home at 11-1115 pm.

tbh, although the signs are good, arguably very good for some high pressure dominance (with sun/warmth/heat) later next week.... it is not cast in stone. as you know, i have followed johns lead using the noaa anomaly charts. i like the gradual evolution over the past few days (as previous posts have highlighted) and they are now lending support to the gfs fi pressure build. but its not a dead cert, things could still change, but if the indications are still there by the weekend, ill be much more confident!

and the latest.. ... that puts me 'on board', as the gradual evolution of these charts do now suggest support for something settled and warm/hot/summery later next week.

i might use my lilies to determine summer... which will start when the first lily blooms, and finishes when the last bloom finishes !

means theyve not sold as many in spring as theyd hope to... they dont have any idea of what sort of summer we will get.

well im optimistic viewing the recent 8-14 day anomaly charts. (21/5) (23/5) (25/5) looks to me like there should be a gradual pressure rise to our south and east after this week, with the most unsettled weather being in the north but pretty nice in the south. still no sign of support for the gfs's pressure rise over the whole uk, but the anomaly charts appear to be gradually moving in the right direction.

Who quoted the 00z?I gave a general comment referring to the gfs's tendency to build high pressure in fi. I didnt say nor implied it was a large long lasting pressure build, just that the gfs cobtinues to suggest some sort of pressure build. The point being that the current 8-14day anomaly chart doesnt support a high pressure build over us other then a temporary ridge imho. Edit... I note the 06z DOES have a large lasting high over us, so thats not misleading

well im looking at the noaa 8-14 anomaly chart to see if this verifies the gfs fi high pressure build. pressure should build to our south, but whether or not itll lead to +ve heights near enough to produce settled/heat/warmth isnt decided yet. i guess the old addage used in winter "the building blocks are in place" could be employed. whilst the current anomaly doesnt predict +ve heights over the uk, (but a westerly upper flow) its not a million miles away from such an evolution. on the other hand, the gfs and ecm might be totally wrong, and the coming weeks unsettled regime might well continue into june. thats one hell of a system for weds night/thurs for late may. im reasonably optimistic for something more 'summery', but we have all seen these fi teases before, many times, and they do keep getting put back. im far from convinced these 'eye candy' (horrid term) charts in fi will amount to anything. but heres hoping

Good grief! I actually agree with you fully!!!

a classic case here of members viewing favoured models... with mine being the noaa anomaly charts

hmmm... dunno, but that to me looks like the 8-14 day anomaly is shifting from the more unsettled/cool pattern (first chart) to a less unsettled one (second/latest chart). if this keeps heading in that direction it could well give support to current fi suggestions of high pressure/warmth. more runs needed of course, and i might be being premature, i might be totally misguided, but possible hints of pattern change?