mushymanrob

.... which is why you shouldnt look at any one run to build a case for either ramping nor dismissing anything. the anomaly charts strongly suggest high pressure will be the dominant feature of our weather from now until mid month. 'warm' of course is reletive and would suggest several degrees above average .... and that is likely for some areas (but not a countrywide event). although the ecm anomaly doesnt suggest much in the way of high pressure, currently its an outlier, so writing off high pressure domination is premature and given the ecm's recent wild swings i wouldnt put too much faith in it being correct. so some pleasant, or very pleasant, dry, days on offer with 'average' looking the worst case scenario, suits me!

fair play i note the gfs 12z would agree with that, and possibly the anomaly charts will swing towards it, after all its well in fi atm. but that composite, and the current gfs, dont really paint a disaster picture. the high being positioned and orientated more favorably for dry springlike conditions if this ever becomes reality (yes thats one fi chart, i could have posted a seriese but this one kinda sums up the general pattern for the time in question.)

yes the odd run shows it...but until the anomaly charts show it, its not realistically going to happen.....

well the outlook is good if its quieter, settled, mild and springlike weather your wanting to see. alot of high pressure somewhere around, mostly favourably positioned to our south, looking mainly dry, mild, but plagued by cloud at times which will spoil things. if youre lucky enough to get any sunshine then temps will become very pleasant. maybe this chart typifies what the general pattern will be over the next couple of weeks? of course the ecm's 00z , suggestion of a scandinavian high is still an option, but currently not a very realistic one. one to keep an eye on nevertheless.

yep it suits me too, of course id prefer sun, but mild and dry is very useful weather for outdoor work/hobbys.

dont care if its cloudy... as long as its reasonably dry and mild. its only early march. lack of posts says alot this morning.... everythings going according to plan. a few chilly cold days, a few really mild days, then back to around average from next monday and beyond. its really useful outdoor weather, and pleasant enough early spring weather.

Of course the really mild and pleasant weather expected next weekend wont last, before more normal spring/march conditions return... So what! Anything above the norm is welcome by me!

I dont see and ramping, (overstating things) just people showing charts which are showing mild. No ones is overstating anything sir. But i do agree that we might yet pick up an easterly, as ive just posted on the md thread. That though at this time of the year is often a stratus fest for most, western areas fare best. Not sure anybody away from the west would relish that truely boring weather.

Well i wouldnt throw in the towel just yet, whilst a proper wintry freeze is highly unlikely theres still time yet for more cold and frosty weather. With high pressure expected to be a major player it wouldnt take much of a synoptic shift to put spring on hold.

I refer you to post 1605 above by john holmes

thats good agreement, that we will most likely get some very pleasant mild weather at last! it might not be very sunny ( although it might) , but the mildness will feel great! what a great outlook for the first day of spring!

well said! the solution is simple, split the model thread, have one for realism and one for cold hunting. but the members voted against that solution - but the coldies would because to them its not an issue! anyway the vote was no.

well i can see why this post got 0 'likes'.... because i was WRONG! paying too much attention to one of the anomaly charts, especially the one looking furthest ahead, is a risky business and one thats open to change more so then the others. and change it has.... ... and has followed the ops, dropping the MLB and scandinavian option. (an evolution i suggested might occur). good news for people like me who are now looking for spring to kick off, once we get rid of the few chillier days ahead. a more mobile westerly looks set to return, but with high pressure closer to our southwest and south the track of the lows should be further north. so after a few blustery, cold, showery days by the end of next week we should be slipping out of a more wintry regime and into early spring. pretty average, but average in early march aint too bad.

indeed karl. it appears we might be heading towards a march 96, or 2010, clear sunny day, very pleasant in the early afternoon for about 20 mins, lol, before sharp overnight frosts. damn.... just what i didnt need at the beginning of my season.

of course BA , thats what we all do every day as new data is made available, nothing is set in stone and is liable to change... i feel another victor meldrew moment coming on... I DONT BELIEVE IT! why?... well because the 8-14 noaa ive been focusing on (to the exclusion of other models which is possibly foolish) has gradually over the last week or so built the ridge towards us, and the latest issued last evening now begins to suggest that the 00z ecm @t240 is more likely then the above gfs 00z @ t240 so much that id personally love the gfs mild southwesterly solution to be correct, i dont think it will be .... again, unless the noaa charts change in favour of it. now just before anyone says 'you were saying the opposite yesterday'... i did stipulate that i wasnt buying any sort of easterly unless the noaa charts suggest its possible, and this morning i think the scales have been tipped towards ridging towards scandinavia, as the evolution of the noaa 8-14 dayer appears to be heading that way. however, it is still fi, and is far from certain, but a gradual establishment of a scandinavian high must have some growing weight to it? (which is not what i want to see, give me the mild springlike gfs 00z solution anyday). march easterlies though are often stratus-fests, and nearly always snowless, dont think many would really like that.

yep its spring LIKE , the same way a frosty day in spring is LIKE winter .... but both are normal. what though wasnt normal was march 2013, now IF we get something like that, itll be very much winter weather.

but i dont think theres any 'mildies', just people who dont look specifically for cold. no one ramps up mild or seeks out mild evolutions the way those looking for cold do.

Of course the uk will get a cold spell again and when one is seriously on the cards and supported across the board then i and others will post accordingly. the uk's weather is often 'somewhere in the middle' (or same ol same ol) . look how many times this winter chart that far out show a cold spell only for it to disapeear closer to day 1. i dont buy it (YET) because i trust the noaa charts as being the most reliable in suggesting what the upper flow will be. (following on from john holmes's observations ). all winter weve had pattern changes here, pattern changes there, and non have become reality. but the accuracy of these noaa charts has been quite remarkable, only once that i can recall have they had to make a sharp adjustment. the rest of the time they have been spot on. so in my very humble opinion, ill stick with what they predict, knowing that most of the time theyll be accurate, but not always and the scandi high MIGHT yet occur and give us all a frosty cold (but dry) spell.

frosts in spring is normal... frosts in spring (march) doesnt mean its still winter, it means theres a frosty spell in spring. quite normal. but as ive just posted in the md thread.... im not buying it. i dont think there will be a scandi high and cold spell UNTIL the noaa charts support it, currently to my understanding, they dont. does a mild day in febraury (like yesterday and today) mean its spring?... no.... its a mild winters day.

i dont buy it.... ill not be convinced that theres a scandinavian cold snap on the way until these charts agree. that chart would, i think, produce a synoptic chart closer to this then this the noaa charts have a far better (but not perfect) track record for this period then ever changing fi charts from the ecm or gfs. so they are either going to make a marked change as they re-adjust (which they do from time to time) or the ecm/gfs (some runs) fi scandi high solution will be dropped. and how many times this winter has these fi cold snaps come to nothing?...

looking pretty average to me sir! it might be cold or it might be mild for spells, but average or normal would be the best bet imho .

looks like a typical summer chart to me!

yes i know john, but i dont view them until the next morning as a rule... so when i say 'todays' or 'this mornings' im of course referring to the previous evenings. sorry if that confuses anyone.

interestingly, the noaa 8-14 day anomaly chart appears to be building high in more over us. all part of the sequence its been showing for several days now. yesterday mornings ( i dont view in the evening) this mornings id have thought would support a synoptic chart something like this (ecm 00z t240) so possibly the hint of high pressure more towards being sat over us then to our south? but there are tangible signes that high pressure will become more dominant towards mid march (if not slightly sooner) as both the gfs (00z) and ecm suggest this....only the timings amiss.

Been some low 850's this week and theyve failed to produce anything too unpleasantly cold, so ive no reason to suppose IF nextweeks predicted 850's come off they will produce anything other then a normal chilly fresh early spring weather type. The predicted temps are notoriously inaccurate that far out.