mushymanrob

ah yes, but you have quoted the 06z gfs which has dropped the mid/high latitude blocking the 00z suggested along with its associated easterlies. sorry i should have posted the gfs 00z charts for that timescale that did illustrate my point. i agree that the 06z is in line with the 8-14 day anomaly chart i posted earlier, both of which dont suggest the easterlies and scandi block previous runs had. of course the high might migrate to scandinavia, and produce easterlies, but its unlikely in the next 10 - 12 days or until the noaa chart suggests pressure build up that way.

yep, but its the same old argument again about what constitutes summer. summer like weather can last into october, true, and if you overlook the shortening days, the low level of the sun, and the autumnal vegetation (that doesnt have the lush fresh growth of spring and summer) let alone the quiet birds and lack of swifts screaming overhead etc then its still summer! but i dont. ive said many times, ive put it in my sig, that summer is far far more then just sun and heat. august is the transition month. early august is still summer, but by late august most of the 'other things' that constitute summer are finished. i much prefer the cooler, fresher feel that spring has, with the fresh air scented with new growth. 12-17c in spring is far more appealing to me then autumnal arrestment of plant growth, decay, even if temps are 15-23c. so im no fan of autumn, i dont care how warm autumn can be, autumns my 'dead season' like summer is for most of you coldies. i actually like a clear, clean northwesterly in summer! ok as long as its not too wet, it can produce some splendid air, fresh and ozone filled..

easterly what easterly?... when the gfs shows something in fi, and these charts (this run has been consistent in suggesting a gradual pressure rise in the southwest as the azores high drifts closer) dont...i know which data i believe will be proven to be more accurate. of course alot of the gfs's fi mid/high latitude blocking in so deep in fi that it might not show on these charts yet. but until they do (and IF they do) then these phantom fi easterlies arent really worth thinking about as theres more to suggest they wont happen, then that they will. but just supposing they do... and it is possible and common for an easterly in march, without the deep draw that happened two years ago i suspect itll be nothing more then cold for colds sake.... just prolonging this lacklustre winter. not delivering the snow (i believe) most coldies desire, just grey stratus benign gloomy (like march 69).

Disagree. The focus should be, and is, on what the predictive charts are showing regardless of the season and unbiasedly. Gibby does that and is why hes one of this sites top posters

You either dont read my posts or have a short memory. Im no seeker nor fan of heat by late august. I likes me sun and heat june - early august. By the 23rd it can be as autumnal as it likes, but not too wet! By late august it IS often pretty autumnal, summer scented flowers have finished, leaves are getting tatty and the swifts have gone along with birdsong. So YES.... Its a deal from me!

seriously?... and meteorologically its spring on march 1st as you well know. we all know we might get some late cold in march, or even april, so what? and id suggest its the coldies who have given up, and have forgotten about winter themselves... where are they? sm, ns, teits, wib, etc they know its now highly unlikely that there will be a proper cold/snowy spell...heck even frosty is spring-ramping! lol. so i dont think gibby is 'forgetting' you, not that he or anyone has some sort of duty to predict for you, hes just being realistic and going with the season, most of us now are looking for sunnier, warmer weather.

well its looking promising for the first week of march/spring as the signes are growing that the azores high could drift eastwards across our southern latitude. the last 3 days noaa 8-14 dayers suggest this progression, and thus lend weight to current op's fi suggestion of a higher pressure across our south, and whilst not exactly killing off the atlantic, at least has the tracks of the lows much further north. so less wet, milder, and not as breezy by the end of the next week? ie pretty decent early springlike weather. note how the azh drifts eastwards over the 3 days.

a suggestion that pressure might rise to our south as the azores high drifts closer? yesterdays todays

.. and this morning the gfs has dropped its high pressure domination or modified it, to agree with the noaa 8-14 day anomaly chart. noaa 1 gfs 0 . gfs in fi shows pretty much exactly what id expect from the noaa 8 - 14 dayer.

i love spring..... but fi charts showing my favoured conditions are not going to excite me. its possible, inevitable even, but im not buying the gfs fi until theres support. ever since ive followed johns advice and view the anomaly charts they are pretty accurate (when in agreement etc). like last summer when the ops suggested a hot high pressure spell...the anomaly charts didnt have any of it... they were right... (on that occassion, of course we had nice spells later). so im viewing my desired weather charts as eye candy (horrible term), after all, i do the same when theres unsupported cold in fi.

nice to see springramping here! and the gfs is pretty persistent atm in bringing in high pressure later in its runs (day 11, midway between day 8-14) trouble is (day 11) currently no support from the noaa.

i have no idea why that last chart is attatched on the end.... ive tried editing it, but to no avail. that last chart should be with the top two, showing fi mild. look it doesnt even appear on the quote...

i dont buy these charts (though id love then to become reality) as the anomaly charts suggest a reasonably lengthy spell of a northwesterly upper flow with the azores high and scandinavian trough dominating. which would support a chart more like this as the general pattern into march. but these northwesterlies of late, have not really delivered anything much for the vast majority. yes theres been thundersnow, and lying snow accumulations over higher ground. this might occur again for the lucky 5% (lucky if you desire snow). the rest of us will be stuck though in a colder unsettled regime. i mean, so what if its snowy over northern hills ? i cant see how that could excite everyone else!

The suns strong, theres that fresh spring scent to the air, birds are singing their springtime courtship songs, primroses, snowdrops, crocus, are all out in flower, nature doesnt calendar watch - it IS like early spring today.... never mind what might happen in a few days time. besides, a chilly northwesterly with some wintriness (chiefly for high ground) is normal in spring albeit unpleasant.

maybe this is better suited to banter/ramps, ill let the mods decide.. but i see nothing good at all, unless you like chilly northwesterlies (at times) for the sake of it. its possibly the worst weather we can expect for late february/winter as itll not produce a deep cold spell (unless things change) , unless you like with altitude youll be unlikely to see much if any snow...most of us lowlanders 'darn sarf' wont and most of which does fall will melt. as i see it its just as benign as the acg of last week, albeit more lively. it delays any early onset of spring like weather, but wont be cold enough for snow/cold fans. a lose lose situation. it looks like being quite wet too.... so in reality i dont think theres much on offer at all for just about all of us. im hoping this rather familiar pattern , thats cropped up alot since late autumn , actually shifts soon... a cold spring is pretty miserable (two years ago at least was dry, bright and sunny for most of the time, i think id prefer that to repeat rather then cold wet windy northwesterlies.)

well theres no sign of anything pleasant really after today.... unsettled, mobile, and chilly at times especially next week when theres more northwesterly then westerlies.

superb afternoon here.... blue skies, fresh air, crocus and snowdrops out, birds singing, warm sunshine (but chilly out of it...for the pedants).

The outlook is totally uninspiring, with the azores high unfavorably positioned (by the end of the week and beyond) for any early spring warmth or any last chance cold. whilst its currently looking like there will be more pm incursions then tm, westerly winds with wind and rain / colder showery doesnt really inspire much conversation. some might see snowshowers, particually 'up norf' with elevation, the rest of us are in abit of a 'no mans land' waiting for spring to start properly.

nowt here yet.... i expect toads to migrate soon though if its damp and mild enough (over 6c) in the early evening. i used to run a toadsave project many years ago for the derbyshire wildlife trust.

no surprises this morning, the deep scandinavian trough has been dropped by the gfs and now fall into line with the type of pattern the noaa anomaly charts show. a pretty normal westerly/north of westerly flow (i hesitate to say northwesterly as it doesnt look to me like a clear northwesterly) with a mixture of pm and tm air and depressions lining up to cross the uk. id suggest the current gfs/ecm are correct, an unsettled westerly flow, pretty normal/average.

Short lived pm outbreaks are expected with the noaa anomaly charts, thats normal, but its really nothing to get excited about. At this time of the year is it really better then no outbreaks? Seems like wanting as cold as posdible for the sake of it. I fully get the desire for deep cold and snow, but wanting itt to be a few degrees chillier then what is average is pointless imho.

But we wont get that karl, as that WOULD depend on a scandi upper trough, the surface lows cant track nw/se without it. The 06zand the 12z both showed a large scandi trough to enable a lengthy period of pm northwesterlies. And who really wants them now unless they lead to a lrolonged cold/snowy spell which they wont? Until the noaa anomaly charts suggest a scandi trough then the current gfs fi chilly regime is unlikely to happen. Sorry old chap,but i firmly believe this will be the case whether straw clut hing coldies like it or not!

An odd comment karl... Its perfectly feasible and common to have below average temps (c 7-8c) and have wintriness restricted to elevated areas. 3-6c is below average and wont produce snow.

Im not concened about the possible fi northwesterlies as so far the noaa charts dont support a strong scandinavian trough and without that any pm incursions wont be long nor particually potent.

Yeah, wintry showers in early spring is pretty normal. I wouldnt place too much hope on those notoriously inaccurate precip charts.