mushymanrob

i think of them like this... you are traveling from a to b, a resonable distance. (no sat nav, lol) you read a map beforehand, remember the key roads to take... then set out... you know in your mind which way you are going, but every so often you miss an important turn off, so you head for a while down the wrong road until you realise your mistake and correct it by rejoining the path you were taking. thats how i see the noaa anomaly charts. they usually run pretty smoothly, but every so often theres a sudden change as new data realignes the path. im a big 'fan' of these charts, as they are simple enough to understand in as much as they dont swing so wildly as the ops do. and of course as john says (after his study of them), they are the most accurate resource (when in consistent agreement) for the time periods they cover.

lol, yeah i can see why youd think that dave and maybe i was abit too dismissive of that ecm chart. of course it might verify, or something like it. but over the last year or so the ecm has amplified 'events' (hot spells in summer) at that kind of timeframe, hence my dismissal of it . of course theres plenty of time yet for synoptics to change to support a northerly blast, and when/if they do ill post accordingly.

ignore this we have seen that before recently, expected for next monday.... whats happening on monday now? this unless that northerly has support in a much closer timeframe its eye candy only. the anomaly charts are consistent and imho quite clear... the high sinking to reside at the uks' latitude or south of the uk's latitude. so a period of high pressure domination is as certain as you can get for the next week and probably longer. dry, calm (by saturday) , cloudy/dirty at first and imho largely cloudy throughout the period UNLESS it taps into the dry continental air. then we will get sunny days/frosty nights. but i suspect cloud will be an issue with some favoured areas getting brighter spells. no wintry (deep cold/snow), no mobile mild southwesterlies, just a very quiet some would say boring spell.

because we are heading for an anticyclonic spell, and all indications are that itll not be a HLB high (which is what would be required for a decent, proper cold spell), so its not looking like in all probabilities that in the next two weeks anything exciting will emerge. and i think the 'learned' would agree with that, in fact john holmes said as much yesterday. there might be no deep cold on offering, but theres no return to mild atlantic either. the point is, when we get anticyclonic spells, we/they can predict beyond 6-7 days with a higher degree of certainty, because that nature of these situations is one that doesnt change very rapidly and often takes several attempts to breakdown. whilst its not certain, id suggest its likely by some margin of safety.

me neither, it cost me too much lost income.. but all this hopecasting talk of 'another march 2013' really is clutching at straws imho... because that march was highly unusual. not that it was cold, but the longevity of it.

of course winters not over, theres 24 more days, but that localised couple of days of bitter wind and some possible snow (although daytime temps are above zero) isnt really what the majority are looking for is it. cold/chilly/overnight frosts.. 'normal' winter weather is what we have, and in those terms, wintry weather isnt over by any stretch of the imagination. but if youre looking for a period of real cold and snow, ice days, that lasts longer then a few hours, and engulfs most if not all the country...ie a proper deep cold spell, then thats highly unlikely to happen now, so THAT description of 'winter' has little chance of happening.

ive been banging on about the coming high being a 'dirty high'... i still think that, but, it does depend upon the exact position/centre of the high. previous runs have shown a lengthy enough draw off the atlantic in its circulation = moist air... of course IF the high taps into the cold, dry, continental air it would be clearer with pleasant wintry sun by day, sharp overnight frosts by night. over the period of high pressure dominance we are likely to see a mix of both options, with location playing a part in who/where gets how much of which. the anomaly charts suggest a sinking high, with by day 10/11 a mean upper flow from the west. so gradually getting less cold/average and a cloudier option more likely?

... indeed, what people seem to overlook is that march 2013 was a very rare event, so whilst march can be cold and snowy...the odds are stacked right against it. in reply to these... depends what you want from winter though doesnt it?... i suspect many looking for cold arent really content with a light/moderate frost by night, sunny 4-5c by day and snowless. it DOES look like winter MIGHT be over in terms of a deep cold snowy spell, that would be a fairly safe bet in the next 24 days. so if people are happy with march blizzards preferances, fair play! but i think hes right and people want snow not frost.

i dont think anyones 'writing off winter' john, just saying that the current expected synoptical pattern isnt one thatll be likely to lead to a deep cold spell as you ... .... go on to say. (15 days time = 18th feb, just 10 days left of winter) as i see it, its about probability , not certainty, and i believe the scales are tipped against a deep cold going off current outputs which might change as you say.

well i like anticyclonic gloom at this time of the year.... its dry and calm, useable outdoor weather for working in. so its not looking like my prefered mobile mild southwesterly february, but my second fav, dry and calm, but without overnight frosts. i note that several others are now expecting a gloomy dirty high this morning, so im no longer alone in expecting that option given the current expected position of the high. the anomaly charts suggest the high will sink to a more southern latitude, thus adding support to the current ops which also suggest itll do that over time. IF this does happen, then imho theres little chance for a decent cold spell to evolve, but not impossible.

saw this and it reminded me of here (substitude 'lies' though for 'ramps')

With respect dr astro, posting notably unreliable temp prediction charts for TEN days time as proof the high will be cold, is pretty unlike you sir. Theres huge uncertainty as to the position and orientation of the high. Plus no one has yet made a scienced based post as to why this high will be a cold clear high as imho its got cloudy written all over it with a circulation off the atlantic.

indeed... tbh id sooner have a wet spell now, the high can come when ive started working again in about 6 weeks. but thats when the atlantic will kick back in

70 was snowy, early 70 anyway... some very deep but breif snow in march. cant remember much in 71 or 2 , yep 3-6 snowless apart from a breif snowfall in nov 73 that melted soon after falling.

the noaa anomaly charts suggest the coming high pressure dominated pattern will see the high centred just to our west or south of west? after a breif northeasterly as the 6-10 dayer suggests. im still expecting it to be a dirty or cloudy affair by the end of weekend as 'less cold' air is drawn down across the country in the anticyclones circulation. but the good news is that its looking dry....

true, but mild weather in february is spring like. indeed the early 70's was poor for snow. in early 75 i remember an article on nationwide about the early arrival of spring with flowers, frog spawn, nesting birds all early.

Geez... The 06z gfs is hideous for those of us who dont like the cold. Never mind its only one run and although plausible is unlikely to verify. Interestingly its not an evolution the rampers predicted (abit like this northerly lol).

i heed what nick says which is why i asked the question. i see you too think that its likely to be a 'dirty high'. heres why as winds drop out later in the week, with temps cold but above freezing by day, there will be some snow melt, clear skies at night, fog could become an issue. this often lifts to low cloud over a several day period. secondly, your description of the inversion creating cloud is better interpreted then i could, but i agree with it which (from experience, not science) i thought it would be a 'stratfest' yesterday. thirdly ... the position of the high thats a long seabound track for cold continental air crossing the reletively warm atlantic, before its returned to cross us in the circulation of the high. that smacks of it being a dirty high... and fourthly theres an old embedded front heading slowly south on the eastern flank of the high... that would introduce cloud. so whilst the mild southwesterlies might be gone (for now at least), this high is looking like a chilly gloom fest, not a clear bright cold frosty one. as things stand. whilst temps will be below average, in the calm air itll be very useable for outdoor activities, and its looking dry! further ahead and its still looking like it MIGHT become mild, the ops are showing more likelyhood of this then any snowy cold spell. i dare say i could find ens support from a few members for this too if i bothered! lol

spot on dave... i find the exageration (ramping) of snow/cold frustrating, because it usually fails to become reality and is frankly misleading to the hundreds who view these forums. so i fail to understand why ramping is popular... coldies like you and WIB who are realists should be listend to (along with the unbiased realists too ) lol.

Nick, can i ask, i see you mention an inversion possible under that high if the gfs type evolution verifies. Wouldnt that lead to a stratus layer? Thus it becoming a dirty high?

Not sure why the cold fans are focusing on a possible less cold, dry, possibly cloudy high in a weeks time or so, when theres much more in the way of cold and snow potential inthe immediate future.

Southwesterlies in feb, is that a fact or just an assumption? Yep 'marginal' will be put to bed, along with snow!

The current anomaly charts dont support the gfs 06z version of events...... Yet... But if the gfs 06z verifies as currently predicted, i dont see it being cold and frosty. With higher uppers drawn in off the atlantic in its northern flank circulating around, it smacks of inversion to me. So an overcast dirty high, dull miserable cold days. Now i like acg, so it might not be mild but itll be dry and usable.

cold becoming colder behind a trough heading southwards, snow on the trough, snowshowers afterwards ASSUMING its a winter chart!

fair comment sir... i wouldnt be posting those charts though if there wasnt cross model consistency, plus the noaa support. i think the timing might be in doubt, (hence agreeing with your last line )its looking like its pushed back abit this morning. plus it might not evolve exactly as is currently predicted. the anomaly charts do suggest a more northwesterly upper flow across the uk, which doesnt suggest mild southwesterlies,,,but... with the high centred close to our southwest itll be a northwesterly sourced from a more southerly point then recent northwesterlies... tm air instead of pm?... anyway im only commenting on whats being shown, if it goes pear shaped then so be it! i dont think the cold will be extended too much, and theres a big question over the degree of mildness verifying. i expect something rather average by week 2 of feb, IF its mild then great... if not ill just have to wait.. been here before though many times so its not a big issue with me.