mushymanrob

whos doing that?... (ive not read all the pages). the cold spell in nailed, its starting now, gradually. the only thing in doubt is the severity of the spell, currently its looking to me like the real cold wont arrive until later next week when we are due to pick up an easterly/northeasterly. the current runs suggest the -5c upper isotherm being displaced tues/weds. it will be cold... but perhaps not as cold as some sources might suggest? anyway, imho its pointless trying to pin down detail several days ahead in this messy synoptical pattern. theres alot of borderline issues to resolve before the expected northeasterly delivers some real cold.

sorry old chap but i disagree with this (bib) assuming you are referring to the deep cold of december 2010. the gfs picked up on the breakdown long before the ecm and ukmo, this was a classic case of the gfs being right over the europeans.

well the south west is my fav are for wine... only when it tells them what they want to hear... ive not read the pages of mainly nonsense since my last visit, so ive not seen what the informed have said. to me this morning, im far from convinced that this cold spell is going to amount to much for some. its a messy synoptic, but at times the less cold uppers mix in with the troughs and the beasterly that would deliver showshowers (for some) is pushed back the gfs 00z is similar to the ecm charts above. a messy weeks weather, with a synoptic mess for most of the time... there WILL be snow around, but how much and for who is open to question. viewing this mornings charts its looking decidedly borderline for many. sometimes we will get the low temps but no feature to produce precipitation (snow) .

Fair comment nick, i can see the appeal of living there, mind you i wouldnt have a liver left if i was living there lol

I still think theres too much premature cork popping, nowts certain. Whilst its highly likely itll get cold, whether it snows, where it snows and when it snows is not clear.

I have now but it was slow..

who said it wasnt going to snow in the south?...

bloody snowies have busted wetterzentrale... i cant get on! maybe they should have a seperate site for unbiased chart watchers !

not being funny or owt , but i dont get why you should care so much, get so wound up, over what we here in the uk are likely to get. you do live in southwest france dont you?

indeed karl, but this time you are more justified for doing so as it WILL get much colder, and we are likely to see snow across most if not all the uk in some form, at some time. of course nothing is yet set in stone, this could be a cold snap, or could evolve into something of note. interesting times ahead..

huh... philip averay has just downplayed much in the way of snow this side of (and including) sunday... that wont go down well lol

really?.... what about the ott posters who are ramping up these wintry chances? ever since the northern blocking in november 'somethings coming' has been the mantra, but deadline after deadline has come and gone. the point is, ott posters come from both sides of the spectrum.

fair comment indeed...even i didnt jump on that bandwagon for a change , but i expected more wintry weather and more widespread then the snap some of us got on boxing day. to me, instinctually, this winter hasnt smacked of a snowless mild one. however i still would be surprised if it turns out to be another like 78-9. i expect to coming spell to be around 1 - 2 weeks long, then maybe a benign settled chilly spell or back to the atlantic. milder again in 4 -5 weeks time. but wadda i know?

whats wrong with that? "drier and more settled conditions may start to become a little more dominant, especially across the south" its a prediction based on the data they have access too.... the keyword is 'may'.

well this mornings runs look like a downgrade to what yesterday evenings were.... it will get cold, but just how cold... its looking good for snow, but its still several days away and in this volotile atmosphere might still go the way of the pear. but theres nothing mild on offer at all after tonights warm sector.

well viewing this chart i wouldnt have thought it supports an easterly as depicted by the gfsp so maybe its the gfsp thats incorrect and the gfs12z op is nearer the mark.

the ficklety of members is raising its head again, when the gfs is progressive suggesting cold, its , but when it shows a lesser extreme its getting trashed, ignored, disbelieved . of course the gfs 12z might well be correct!

not sure why there should be so much discrepancy between the gfs and gfsp... nor why the gfs 12z is likely to be inaccurate. it might be on the ball... although a cold spell is likely, its not a cert or at least a big freeze isnt.

yeah my primroses have a few flowers on them..

yep same here with both snowdrops and catkins. think the snowies will be put on hold though judging by current model outputs... tbh this cold is a bullet i dont expect we can dodge (unlike many previous shots), the question isnt 'will it get cold' but 'how severe will the cold be' . at least itll please those of a cold preferance, and those of us who like to see some seasonal weather.

ey up mi duck things would turn a little chilly if this chart verifies

i trust this is a joke? theres nothing unsual about spring plants growing in winter when its mild. as they dont know what lies ahead but merely react to the current conditions offered. oddly enough, ive no snowdrops out yet, and in a mild winter they are often out by mid jan.

hmm.... dont forget the ecm's penchant for overcooking cold... it has done twice already this season, leading the hopefull up the garden path. however its clear that theres (at last) a real pattern change emerging, and its very likely to be cold. could there be a significant cold/snowy spell?.. well yes is the short answer to that. but its not set in stone, even if its entering a semi reliable timeframe! theres nothing mild on the horizon at all, and it can stay that way for a couple of weeks lol

...... and over the last 15 odd hours or so highlights why we should have a seperate thread for cold hunting and unbiased model thread. i guess i could put nearly everybody on 'ignore' , except the unbiased or just until its spring. (yes i know paul, i said ill not go on about this subject, and im not, just having abit of a )

Id have thought the ecm wasnt toobad, not as progressive as the gfs but plenty of snow risk for a longer period.