mushymanrob

as nick f posted, shades of january 84, cold pm air with some snow. personally from my own pov its possibly the worst type of cold... wet cold.. slushy wet snow at best, or cold rain.

Ba/john... Cheers, i hadnt noticed it before, my bad

looks like the votes going against a 'hunt for cold md thread'.... oh well, so be it, itll be spring soon anyway!

look at the stats... how many cold rampers have been right compared to the unbiased posters?

i said i wasnt going to post here again, but you two, the two id expect to be accurate, have highlighted the very reason i get into arguments. and youve highlighlighted my point! i have NOT stoked any mildie vs coldie 'malarkey' ive not mentioned mildies in fact ive posted quite clearly that i dont think there is any 'mildie' camp, but my main point of contension here is being referred to as a mildie, for championing UNBIASED views... and this goes on throughout the md thread for anyone who doesnt follow the hunt for cold. unbiased doesnt equate to being a mildie... so please stop crediting me with causing trouble when its posts like those quoted inaccurately that do and it adds considerable weight to the notion of having seperate threads

absolutely dave... i agree , but i think the bigger question is.... would it benefit this site to seperate those with a cold bias from those who prefer a realistic, unbiased view. of course 'average' is boring, but if thats what is realistically what the outlook is, then wouldnt fi hopecasting give a misleading picture?... and if so does it matter? anyway, ive had my say, ill try to stf up now which will please admin lol. i accept the way the votes going things are unlikely to change. c'est la vie.

... only there is no one looking for mild weather, so it would be a dead thread. not hunting cold doesnt mean youre hunting mild... see...this highlights what i mean! i love you too lorenzo apart from me, do you seriously think that the unbiased are intollerant or reactive?

whats this? early hints of pressure rise over scandinavia? perhaps the start of something... more runs needed of course.

tbh i dont think those hunting for cold understand how bloody annoying it is for those of us who just want a realistic view, the bias sucks, they dont see it as a problem because they ARE the problem! lol. you should be asking the unbiased what they think..lol

yes, there should be a seperate thread. why? because its misleading for many who view the forum who just want a realistic take on whats likely to happen. the cold bias would have you think we are on the verge of another 63/47 and this has been posted by 'non regulars' several times. i note plenty of coldies have already voted to leave it as it is.... but they would, wouldnt they, because theyve turned it into a hunt for cold thread already! people who post unbiased outlooks are often questioned, called 'mildies' (actually , i see NO ONE posting pro mild in the way people are chasing cold). is it ok as it is?.... in a way yes, because theres not much sign of anything really cold. but look how the place reacts when snow is imminant. you have to start a new thread for every run! it relegates unbiased, reasoned posts to be hidden amongst the fervour. id also ask... why not start one? it costs nothing does it? as you know paul, i feel strongly on this subject as i believe its for the benefit of the site to provide a place for snow hunting and to promote a realistic, unbiased, outlook. and id have thought that the countrys top weather site should have a clear duty (?) to provide clear concise realistic information seperately (so it can be easily found) .

Big respect to TEITS for having the grace to admit hes been wrong and for crediting those who have been spot on.

erm, but who do you listen to when these people dont agree? when one says 'pattern change ahead' and another says 'no pattern change ahead' ? a very mobile picture this morning looks set to continue for the forseeable and through the heart of winter. very unsettled, so no three days are looking similar with a blowy, breezy, rather wet/showery short periods of mild, short periods of cold. some wintriness at times, especially for northern hills. although this morning there appears to be less time spent under pm air then yesterday, so snow chances are reduced .

Just under 16c recorded at sutton bonnington (nearby), if it wasnt for the breeze id have a bbq lol

should be taken seriously, after all, theyve called winter correctly so far. the models might be moving towards a more wintry outlook, but its still mainly in fi, and several runs continue to downplay the possible severity/longevity.

further to my 'dont discount the souths chances just yet' post earlier id have thought something like this might produce at least frontal snow for southern areas. ok, its deep fi and wont verify but it does highlight that writing off snow for southern areas is premature. on the subject of snow.... to me any is looking transitory away from higher ground, it smacks of early 1984 when we got alot of wet snowshowers that left slushy messes for a few hours. it might be more welcome then last years snowless winter, but isnt a decent freeze .

ha ha... not ramping, just posting an honest view, but then again ive said that i expect more (i got boxing day snow) wintriness this winter for more people..... not that i want it.

i didnt say that steve was wrong, just that its premature to write off snow in southern areas over the coming weeks because the synoptic patterns are very mobile and it wouldnt take a huge shift (based on current outputs) for snow chances to increase for southern areas. yes on current models its unlikely down south, but a shift of a hundred miles (very small) could see the souths chances increase dramatically. .....on the other hand, all this fi hopecasting might yet amount to nothing, just after crimbo we were supposed to get mainly pm air in a northwesterly, its 13c here atm .

sorry old chap, i think youre being premature there. theres alot of cold potential in the outputs, with increasing incursions of pm air lasting longer and digging further south. the atmosphers is in a very volatile mood, its very unsettled, and with increasing cold incursions i certainly wouldnt write off the south getting snow in the next few weeks. ok it might not be as likely as more northern areas, but it only takes a channel low..

Je suis charlie

well its not set in stone, but theres a growing chance for something wintry... it might not happen, it might be a short spell or it might be a decent spell... but theres a chance.

.. charts like that were being shown for several days earlier then that one recently...they were dropped, so i wouldnt get too excited yet! its over 2 weeks away and has little chance of verifying (though not impossible)

seems that something might be brewing..... but its in fi... it would be foolish to pop any corks just yet.

.... and the noaa anomaly charts are now shifting from the strong westerly, not by much, but enough to allow the general synoptic pattern now coming into view @ t240 ? that ecm @240 is well inline (i believe) with what the noaa chart would allow for. so a few days later then originally progged, but a quite large shift towards a colder outlook is this morning gathering pace for later next week.

How long have you been on here karl? You must know by now that the gfs regularly overcooks things in fi, and next week is fi. And you are placing all your eggs in one badket, the gfs. Whats the ecm's take on next week? Oh yes not quite as cold looking, lol and the ever accurate anomaly charts dont smack of too much cold. So people in the northwest might get some more wintry weather but the majority of us wont, and thsts using the current gfs and assumes they verify.

looking like 'ridgegate' will possibly be the defining moment of the winter. if we get a ridge as some gfs runs suggest in about ten days time, then theres every chance of some sort of cold evolution, of course it might only produce acg, a benign overcast dull stratusfest . but high pressure around and in the mix in mid-late january always has the potential to deliver something wintry. on the other hand, if theres no significant ridge, if its weak or non existent, then the chances of something much colder evolving must have growing odds stacked against it happening. its highly unusual to get late freezes when theres been nothing before (and this year we have had a mini spell for some, maybe that counts and is why i still think we should get something). 2013 was a complete exception... which proves things can happen, but the chances arent great IF theres been nothing much before the end of jan. i get told off in summer for suggesting that therees unlikely to be a hot spell in august IF theres been nothing in june/july... as i see it, weather follows fairly predictable patterns, and when the pattern doesnt allow for something to appear, it very rarely does. so a washout june/july making the chances of an august heatwave very unlikely (but not impossible, and im talking heatwave, not average pleasantness) or a reletively mild dec/jan meaning a big freeze in feb is highly unlikely, these are patterns ive noticed and the historical data supports this notion. so this possible ridge in around ten days time is i think, crucial, if that fails to materialise and evolve into something more substantial, then it would strongly suggest imho that there would be no widespread freeze this winter.