mushymanrob

looking like summer will start where spring left off back to square one with cool unsettled northwesterly airflow. at least itll keep pollen levels down.

The ecm looks cloudy to me.... Sorry...

Ill not worry about that until the anomaly charts suggest it could happen. Itll probably be gone next run.

hi william, it must be summer if youre back! the anomalies are undeniably pretty accurate, as jh says, (we have just seen what looks like yet another anomaly triumph over the ops) and although they dont make pleasing viewing atm, they only go out to 2 weeks ahead, so hardly touches 'summer' at all. theres loads of time for the longwave pattern to shift (favourably) and tbh, as long as theres positive heights to our west/southwest, itll prevent northern blocking and a southerly tracking jet that started the washout summers of 07, 08, in early june... thats good news!

yeah well... i spoke too soon, starting to let my preferences for the dry and warmth the ops had been championing recently , influence my thinking. this morning the ops are now in line with what the anomaly (noaa) charts have been telling us will happen.... no (lasting) pressure build over the uk with the high being anchored to our west/southwest, upper trough to our north/northeast, with a mean upper flow from the northwest... so cool, rather unsettled at times with and settling down/calm being rather transitory.

But its only just got wet.... Twas dryza bone here anyway. Interestingly, the anomaly charts dont look like being spot on, neither do the ops, as theres unlikely to be a northen low as per the anoms, nor a high centred over us as per the most progressive ops.

any noctilucent clouds yet?

wish that was a mirror image... id be much happier if the mean high was to our east!

my interpretation john, and i might well be wrong of course, viewing both the 6-10 and 8-14 noaa charts are that there might be a slight relief from the cooler northerly sourced, northern trough, showery regime as the western high does nudge in closer to us (as per the 6-10 day chart), but fails to track over us and retrogresses back leaving us with the trough to our north again (as per the 8-14 day chart). but i might be wrong, they might be wrong or more likely might change (esp the 8-14 day chart). either way im far from confident about more pleasant settled weather winning out (as per some op runs).

Noaa anomaly charts still wont support the ecms pressure rise over us, but still insists on an upper trough near/over the uk maintaining the cool unsettled conditions. Id be suprised and happy for the ecm to be on to something... But..

i wouldnt get too excited by the ecm 00z @day7 the 6-10 day anomaly chart doesnt allow for the building of high pressure over us in that time frame which makes the gfs 00z more likely to be the solution we end up with the high looks close enough to our west, to prevent toppling systems hitting us directly, but this could happen IF the western high gives way or receeds.

... sorry, but i dont believe them. nor does it look overly dry either.. these charts suggest a northwesterly upper flow for most of the rest of May. and ridging will be brief, and atlantic systems look like theyll track nw/se across the uk. the rest of may looks cool, showery/wet at times, breezy with overnight frost risks when we are on the wrong side of the polar front. still, the air quality will be good and fresh, no continental importing of tree pollen nor humidity and the sun is of course strong.

ive become more intollerant of the cold... i hate being cold and i seem to feel it more too (but my health/circulation is in good order). there was a time when i liked to work myself warm when it was cold... but not so much now. also, after all these years of working outside in stinking heat, and enjoying it, im not quite so fond of it now. but its become so rare i think id welcome it now! 17c in a sunny gentle northwesterly is perhaps ideal!

wow... what a lot of depressing people you lot are! 'like summer 08' 'like summer 12', i dont see anything to worry about ! i dont see an absent azores high , southerly tracking jet with a strong greenland high . im usually 'mr pessimistic' , but thats only when ive got something to worry about. i dont see charts similar to any washout summers...yet anyway. the ops and anoms are in fairly good agreement that the uk is likely to sit under a trough to our north, trapped in by a large mid atlantic high and another over northern europe. ok its looking on the cool side of average, but im not seeing too much in the way of wet weather. but even in cooler air/uppers, the sun is strong and the air fresh, great! if you want to play the comparison game... try may 1975... that horrid cold (but sunny) spring that gave way to the first of our two long hot summers that decade.

youre not seriously writing off summer just yet?... lol

tbh im happy with the current trends. this cooler northerly sourced air has great air quality about it, its quite dry, its fresh, and the chilly nights have so far prevented my lilies being attacked by molluscs! (i refuse to use poisons to kill them, far too many other things further up the food chain have suffered terribly).

well its hard to predict cloud amounts that far ahead, a shallow trough or slightly east of north draft could easily see us under cloudy grey skies and with those low 'uppers' itll not be warm. but hopefully, the strong sun will at least make it feel warm enough if theres no cloud and breeze.

looking like a chilly but fresh second half of May still, in the sun itll feel very pleasant, when theres no cloud the sky should be very blue (as opposed to milky) with good air quality. good for viewing noctilucent clouds?

it would be interesting to discover if, in anglo saxon times, the weather was similar all year round to what we have now, or whether seasons have shifted. the climate might have been more continental, i dunno... a do agree that the current astronomical difinitions though are pretty unrealistic (bottys post), and that perhaps shifting them earlier by a month (as stewfox suggests above) would be more reprisentitive taking into account all the factors that make up the seasons.

Fair play sir. We differ there though as im not in summer mode, which is probably why i find myself drawn to the saxon version.

The last time was probably about a thousand years ago! When the anglo saxon era ended. You conveniently overlook the bit about using daylength, which is a constant. The point about this is that a different system was employed by people in the past to determine when their seasons started. Using daylength makes alot of sense. And i think our idea of what autumn should be like has also changed. Isnt autumn a time for harvesting fruits and crops? Most fruits and all crops are finished by our current astronomical date, and sept 1st is half way through.. Anyway, its not an argument, it was an interesting article i came across and thought it would be of interest here, the way different things were used in the past to determine their seasons. Personally, i fully understand it and agree with it. I dont expect the closed minded to find it of interest though!

Trouble is theres no current anomaly chart support for that which id like to see.

i dont disagree with your points, and it all depends upon what you use as the yardstick to determine what defines the seasons. the trouble with using temperature, is that its totally inconsistent, unlike daylength. so the anglo saxons using a constant makes most sense doesnt it? lol... i used to take my hold the first week in august. when i came back, it was like summer was over. not weatherwise, not temp wise, but the growth and vigour had gone out of plants. by september some early shedding trees are on the turn. i know august (after the 7th) wont be reclassified as autumn, but i would suggest that nature and daylength (as used by the anglo-saxons) would indicate why their seasonal definition is different to ours.

.... according to Bede ! http://aclerkofoxford.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/summer-sun-brightest-anglo-saxon-summer.html in many ways this makes perfect sense, using sunlight as the defining element. i have to say that i do agree with it, ive often said that its becoming autumnal after the first week in august... seems the anglo-saxon in me was coming through! in fact people argued against me calling most of august 'like autumn'... well im happy with this as it proves that for many years in the past, i was actually on to something! winter starts on november 7th?... yep why not? thats around the date when most deciduous trees have shed their leaves and by then are largely bare. spring on feb 7th?... why not? so many spring plants are poking through, snowdrops are out by then and even though feb is often the coldest month, things are 'springing to life'. so summer starting on may 9th, makes perfect sense going off sunlight, and makes even more sense to 'midsummers day' being june 24th, just 3 days after the astronomical date for summer starting (which i dont agree with).

lol... but its only just turned wet! yes those charts are fi, but theres good support from the mean charts and the noaa anomaly charts, detail to be decided of course, but itll be a fairly safe bet the the azores high will build to our southwest after next week.