mushymanrob

add gatekeeper and brimstone to the list, both seen today

but even refering to the max - min temps are not free from skewing reality.... what if its cloudy all day until 3 pm? then the sun comes out and temps reach 25c? statisticall thatd look like a 'good day' but in reality most of it was overcast! yep, a good idea about index's. oh apologies to paul no probs i know you have to have statistics, but statistics shouldnt be taken as reality... see my reply above regarding late afternoon sun.. statistically i bet theres more people moaning about this summer then the previous ones! :lol:

my pessimism is based on current track records. ever since the heat went 5 weeks ago there have been promises of a return to someting nice 'next week'.... trouble is, it remains in 'next week' . i think that weather acts in patterns, for 'x' amount of time before something else takes over. the manner in which the current weather is behaving doesnt make me think that anything 'better' is going to ensue. just look at current conditions.... the gfs first picked this up last week and suggested we were in for something more summery...even though it would be brief. then this troublesome front kind of ended that suggestion and replaced it with ... 'azores ridging in afterwards', indeed by now im supposed to be in sunny dry conditions... now the latest is that this troublesome front is not going to clear properly until friday, with huge amounts of rainfall for eastern areas tomorrow... time after time every glimmer of hope for 'summer' gets downgraded, so just because the gfs 06z is a summery run, ill not believe it until it happens. the trend is for unsettled weather to dominate. i hope my pessimism is misplaced, but tbh its usually more often then not... proven correct. :lol: dont forget, no one more then me would like to see a heatwave, so my pessimism goes against my wishes.

well before i could reply to pauls post regarding 'rip summer', he closed it! :lol: he cites that recorded statistics are the only way to truely record how good/bad the summer factually is. but statistics are flawed.... why?.... well what if for eg, the rainfall came overnight? but the daytimes were largely sunny? wouldnt that skew peoples perception? look at earlier this decade, temps were often up being muggy, but under very milky skies which statistically reduced actual sunshine levels! the cet for summer 07 was rather high...but that was due to high nightime minima as opposed to high daytime maxima, a warm summer?...lol. these examples highlight why imho statistics cannot be relied on to give a picture of what our summer weather is really like. perhaps the most accurate way would to be statistics from say... 9 am - 9 pm... after all, what matters what the weather does when we are asleep!

that was written after perusing the 00z, which was much worse then the 06z and more like the ecm which when i last looked, wasnt as 'high-centric' as the gfs. edit...just seen the ecm, which does look much more atlantic/mobile then the 06z gfs suggests.

i dont believe in faith john, i believe in bad luck! well the 06z is back to painting a better picture then the 00z did, and the ensembles for (me) derbyshire would tend to back the 06z with higher pressure over the next week or so. the 06z even throws in a couple of possible mini heatwaves as a high pressure centre drifts east allowing warm southerlies for a short time. could things develop into something longer lasting and hot?... well at least the building blocks are getting into position, so perhaps...but im not expecting it...lol..

hi and welcome to the forum yep of course your post is ok! sorry but i dont agree that august 07 was anything that good, but id settle for that over what we are currently enjoying! lol im 52, worked outdoors since 73, these past 3 summers are NOT what ive been used too in terms of rainfall. ok you can massage statistics to prove this/that/the other, maybe temps have been 'normal' but the rainfall hasnt, and thats what people will remember. i agree with you, but tbh its ONLY the rainfall totalls that are out of sync, imho temps, sunshine levels, wind, have been pretty much in line with 'normal'. summers though john are not valued by temeratures alone. what use are 'above average temps' if you are sat indoors watching a tropical deluge? the constant rain and associated cloud cover has spoiled this summer regardless of what the temp statistics might show. excellant post!.... yes indeed grass growth is directly linked to rainfall amounts and as a grass cutting opporative since 1973, these past three (07,08,09) have produced 'record' amounts of grass growth duing july/august, the time when traditionally its quite dry and the grass eases off. this is why i have this week off for holiday, so i dont return to a jungle... (bah! not looking foreward to resuming my rounds ). many summers have had wet periods, but non as persistent as these current years. is it too late now to get a summer?... knife edge but the chances arnt looking that good.

hmm..im not so enamoured with this mornings runs, all of which appear to downgrade any highpressure/settled spell. the gfs shifts towards yesterdays ecm which was more unsettled. tbh i cant really see any decent warmth in this mornings outputs, hints maybe, but nothing strong. its looking like after a very wet july , summer will just gently slip away quietly through the rest of august.

so far (t168) the azh on this run doesnt want to leave 'home', unlike the 06z where the centre migrated eastwards over us...

yay! thanks

indeed it does look like a thundery shortwave will move up the eastern side/north sea northwards after which the atlantic/azh theme introduces itself into next week. there could be some very nice, pleasant days, better in the sunnier south and east, but the north and west look likely to be plagued by cloud. one or two hints that we just might pick up a southerly feed which would be welcome before summer ends. (though im still not expecting 3+ consecutive days of 25c+ ) the ecm are having none of it though, with the azh staying out to our west and a scandi trough dominating leaving us in cool, changeable regime. i think the ecm might well be the form horse, the shortwave heading north will introduce alot of energy/warmth/humidity to mix with north atlantic pm airmass resulting on a large depression over scandi. erm... when i click on a piccy to view it, its loads ok, but when i click 'back' to return to the post, i get taken back to the top of the page...not the post the image was posted on

my blackberries are nowhere near ready, and this is unusually late. im normally picking by the time i go on my hols ..... which is this week!

the met office!

so a possible settling down as shown by the 00z gfs is likely into next week courtesy of the AZH ridging in. ok, not heat as such but if its pretty dry, warm and bright (cloud is my main concern regarding a ridging AZH) which sounds good to me!

...but its not a 'pleasantly warm spell' im on about! its 'summer' as in sun/dry/hot ala 1995! true id be happy with a pleasant warm spell, but thats pretty much what youd expect in a normal august.

i have seen johns forecast, and it aint good IF its heat you are after. (aug 95 stylee). with the south being favoured...a pretty normal, average month then! chionomaniacs latest post in model discussion also doesnt bode well for heat and given that the met office has 'written off summer' in terms of sun/heat PLUS theres no sign of any significant pattern change (remember it took 3 weeks for the signes in june to become reality).... i think it IS fair to assume august will not deliever a decent sunny, dry, hot spell. looking for such a spell now is like looking for a snow event in early feb in a year driven by mild atlantic weather... its possible but imho highly unlikely.

plenty of peacocks now on my buddlia, about 20, small tortoishells too are doing well (c8) . got several painted ladies, a comma or two, loads of white things, a red admiral and a couple of speckled woods. hope the sun shines, could get more!

thanks for that yeah frontal rather then convective, whilst frontal rain is rather drab and convectional is far more interesting with towering cumulonimbus (some great sky scapes) i cant work through deluges whilst the more gentle frontal rain offers less of a problem. i accept that the last 2 junes have been ok... but this is a 'summer rip' thread, not a retrospective analysis! just to note.... IF we get a decent, warm, settled sunny spell (ie 'summer') ill be very happy indeed to be wrong !!!

you will always get localised bias, this is what makes topics open for discussion id like to see the statistics for rainfall month on month for those summers, as i dont remember the frequency of the torrential downpours we currently endure. whilst 85 and 6 were very poor summers they hadnt the intensity of rainfall we currently endure. both 87 and 88 had some decent spells either side of 'bad' weather.. but ok... overall and taking everything into consideration 07-09 isnt as 'bad' as 85-8 apart from rainfall.

its no so much about having high expectations, its more about NOT being caught in repetitive torrential downpours. imho a traditional british summer should have something like 1 settled sunny week per month, followed by 3 odd weeks of unsettled...but NOT monsoon like rainfalls! we did not have 3 consecutive washout summers though within that time period, plus you omitted 75, 83, 84, 89, 90, which were all 'good' summers for sunshine/warmth. 78, 80, 82, 87, also had shorter but nice enough (early) hot spells. ok temps werent that low, but those 'bad' summers were in isolation, unlike these 3 consecutive wet julys. temps dont mean much if you are stuck indoors watching the rain. ...but those 'heatwave augusts' came on the back of decent julys, have we ever had a heatwave augst on the back of a wet july? if theres a big fat bartlett in place on candlemass (feb 2) 'writing off winter' is a fairly safe bet! depends what you grow... i dont do bedding plants, nor dahlias, my perrenials are set to peak in july/early august to co-incide with the warmest time of the year. by september as i explained, im off doing other things as summer is over.

eh?... oh i see... 'normal' 'average' summer , not summer as in sunny hot weather! interesting tomaz schaffernaker (sp?) on the countryfile forecast was hinting that after tuesdays rain the rest of the week should be improving with sunnier skies as the azh nudges in.. yep, pretty much in line with all current models outputs, however... the azh in august is often cloudy, especially in the north. so whilst precipitation levels might be reduced (hurrah!) temps will only be 'normal' under bright/overcast/sunny intervals type skies (depending upon where you live). fantasy island offers no hope, with a deepening low tracking across the north introduces northwesterlies/northerlies making it feel distinctly autumnal.

ive given up hope! with 4 weeks to go and the 'last chance' for somethig settled and warm that could have occured this week now being all but a cloudy, damp, muggy squib... i think its time to call time on summer 09. theres nothing even in fantasy island (not fantasy 1 land lol)to suggest a change in the current pattern and with both the met office any our own experienced lrf's not giving out much hope then its all but over. the signes were there in early june, prior to the only decent summer spell this year has or will give, the greenland high, the southerly tracking jet, raised concerns amongst some of us. of course (understandably) we were told 'you cant write off summer this early'... and for a week or two they were right. then it all went horribly wrong, after months of pretty dry weather (the ground prior to the heatwave was dry, if the expected bbq summer HAD happened then hosepipe bans, water restrictions etc were a distinct possibility in some areas), the heavens opened...and it hasnt stopped nor is likely too yet. 'it can be nice in september'... yes it can, but thats precious little compensation after the summer blooms (which are peaking NOW ) have faded and daytimes are much shorter. from august through to april, i metal detect, from april to august im in summer mode...enjoying my garden with my g/f, family bbqs and outdoor living. too much to ask for the uk?... ok, we have always had mixed bags for summers, but 3 complete washouts on the trot must be a record! im not advocating wall to wall sunshine, an 'average' summer with mixed settled/unsettled conditions would suit me fine, anything hotter/drier would be a bonus! will summer 2010 be any better?..... well tbh i wouldnt bet on it!

they are building the set now...... next door to where elvis lives along with princess diana... <_<

what an odd thread with only 7 months gone... i think its been great upto july... winter must have been good as there was widespread snow, spring was utterly beautiful with plenty of bright warm sunshine (boring?.. to be boring is sitting inside watching rain out of my window ala july stylee, being outdoors and relishing the early spring warmth is beautiful imho). may and early june were abit cool... a nice hot spell in late june, but july has been awful. ok i like nice towering stormclouds, but every day? rain is only ok for those indoor people, after a few days it gets very very boring.

and that is one fact the conspiracy theory supporters have no answer too... i detest the bad science used by the con theorists, just like the crop mark hoaxers who came foreward and proved they did the crop circles but the alien believers took no notice and carried on insisting they were created by spacecraft, those who wish to believe the moon landings were a hoax will carry on doing so. cost..... we had achieved all we could achieve by 1972 so there was no point in wasting money going back. im surprised you even asked that question about who was filming it.... no one has ever ducked that question... but heres one for the conspiracists.... how come they only pick on the first moon landing ? ive never seen any documentary, book, youtube vid, writing, anything at all that tries to disprove all the other landings we made. oh...and we ARE going back in around 10 years or so....