mushymanrob

got 2 painted ladies, 2 peacocks, several small tortishells and a red admiral.... looks like my buddlia is working on the venessids

a summery september is about as much use as a snow event in april. out of season to fully enjoy its effects. as bottesford said, what use is it if after a day in the office looking out at the sun, you get home to a cool dark evening? of course its pleasant, but the moment has passed, my garden is in full flower NOW. hints of some shift towards something more settled/sunny next weekend. both the ecm and gfs has some sort of calming down , albeit atm transitory. we really need to see something positive upstream now if anything is to be rescued this summer... theres still time, but its fast running out.

had the first of the summer seasons peacock today, along with a couple of fresh new small tortoishells. white things too...

ill bet that we dont get a widespread succession of over 3 consecutive days of 25'c+ !!! (like the last one). thats one bet ill be happy to lose! :lol: ps...im not saying that summer IS over, just that it wouldnt surprise me IF it is, ie no more 25c+ days (3+ consecutive, widespread across at least the central/southern uk) constituting a hot spell like the one at the end of june.

I wouldnt like to place money on it not being over!

.... because the type of synoptics us 'summer' fans require to get something reasonable dont just happen overnight. the last hot spell for example took several weeks to build, even before it was being shown on any chart. until the 'upstream' patterns are in place (and they are not) then we are stuck in this cool, wet regime for some time. IF the upstream patterns (sorry for being untechnical, im refering to the mjo and gwo etc of which my understanding is very poor) arnt progressing towards a more favourable position within the next 2 (short) weeks, then 'writing off summer' is looking like a fair bet. snow in winter is a different matter, its far easier to get summer heat then winter snow as snow relies on more factors then just temperature.

well i didnt think things could get any worse, judging by the 00z i was wrong. this pesky low sits on or nearby for the whole of next week before high presure to our west slowly introduces northerlies. write off summer?.... well on current outputs i wouldnt bet against it as they have got gradually 'worse' (for 'summer') over the last 2 weeks. after the hope in june of a decent summer, its looking like this july will rival or even surpass july 07 for foul, unsummery, weather.

well i ought to start looking at them more i guess... they might tell me if its going to be wet or very wet...lol

not a lot mate.... i dont view the ensembles, not sure why they exist tbh or what their relationship is to the charts. i do think that sometimes you can 'overview' data, which often conflicts thus causing confusion... ...on the other hand i might be just too lazy! :lol: ill stick to the charts, i understand them

im not expecting nor want a 'nevada' style climate, what frustrates me is the ammount of rain we get summer after summer. (chris, the ground is wet for the time of year, but not sturated as such). julys are usually pretty dry, or any rain dries up pretty quickly, its been years since i had drought stressed grass in july. i should be mowing dry, not mowing wet. ok charts cant be trusted beyond t+78, but settled warm weather doesnt appear suddenly as if by magic, and appart from next tuesdays one day wonder theres no sign, no hope atm for anything like 'summer'. ill not get my hopes up until the lrf/ers on here start to suggest thing are going the right way, until then ill caryy on being a pesimist!

the ecm is the pick of the bunch this morning, which by tuesday holds the low further west into biscay and builds the euro high... but alas this looks like a temporary set up as the atlantic wins out yet again :lol: the gfs in fi holds no hope of any 'summer' with the all too familiar southerly tracking jet....

after the earlier influx of painted ladies and other southern migrants, thought it might be an idea just to report what lepidoctra you see.... we are just coming up to the peak season, budlias (never could spell that one!) are out, ragworth, thistles, garden flowers.. what have you got? i had my first humingbird hawkmoth last wednesday, today i have 3 small tortoishells and 1 painted lady.

i was talking metephorically, as indeed 'the green shoots' was a metaphore.... however, the projected rainfall for thurdsay night/friday may well result in floods with towns cut off... it is a possibility. yeah we might get a 2 day break before more torrential downpours come as the mini heatwave on mon/tues breaks down. tbh id sooner see a euro-high rather then an azores as theres a high possibility of cloud with the azores.

im reckon the 'green shoots' may well be flooded out, this week is shaping up (here) to be worse then anything 07 threw at us. and the current output doesnt suggest it will improve. with a prediction of 50/50 for something more settled early august, that means its 50/50 that it WONT improve.... guess which 50% im backing

re posting charts here i find it abit too fiddly, not being very technically minded, the charts i save arnt allowed 'that file type' to be posted here so its abit difficult <_<

tbh though, not even eugene could make the current forecast for friday any worse then what the bbc are predicting for the southeastern half of the uk .... in fact, its possibly the worst forecast ive ever known for a july day.... (but then again my memory isnt exactly sharp! lol)

...but not everywhere got 'the real deal' late june, we only had 3 days of blue skies and sunshine, plagued by cloud on many other days with varying amounts of sunshine... hi john, i mentioned 'autumnal' as i was quoting the forecaster on the bbc lunchtime forecast who now predicts a complete washout on friday as a low tracks across southern uk. "cool, heavy rain strong winds" ... sounds autumnal to me! (on a personal note, my rounds are fortnightly, and a fortnight ago this friday was the day the heatwave broke...it tipped it down, so my same customers are getting a 'wettun' again..... standards fall...not good...)

its wet. thats whats 'wrong' mate, the grass was soaked, hedges wet, and under laden skies and whilst yesterday here was nice (am) it went downhill with some torrential downpours locally. temps yesterday were decent in the sun, but today theres barely any sun. i should be working dry at this time of the year, not continually getting jobs not done or done wet. and now the latest forecast for friday we are promised 'autumnal' conditions with persistent heavy rain, cool temps, strong winds..... and to top it all theres no sign of anything better coming along. this july now is looking far more like 07 then 06, and we were 'promised' a bbq summer .... ok no one really believed that as 'gospel' but tbh id sooner have a 'bad' prediction at least our faint hopes of something summery wouldnt be dashed yet again. ok theres 6 odd weeks left of 'summer', and the lrf experts are suggesting a reasonable chance of something better next month, good news, but in the mean time summer is slipping away and its yet another 'lost' month where all i can do is watch the garden getting wetter and wetter through my window , instead of being out there enjoying it in full bloom. until theres something concrete 'upstream' (as was predicted long before our last hot spell) i think being dispondant, negetive, 'eugenesque' (lol), is fair.

oops.... lol..thanks. tbh though, that wouldnt be hard to do, summer so far has been pretty ordinary and not everyone got the best of the last hot spell. hmm... the 00z is pretty awful in terms of 'summer' weather if its sunshine and warmth you want. the ecm hints at something better early next week. fi still starts quite close with still no concensus even as close as the weekend.

yep i agree, i think many of us ought to listen more to what the more knowlegable say, theres alot to be learned . hope thats not too psychophantic!

the trouble is though dave, is that our competant lrf members are saying that the upstream signes are not there...yet... johnholmes, glacier point and chionomanic who did spot the last hot spell long before it appeared on the models are not optimistic now for the return of the heat in later july. this is why i asked if our hot spells are inextricably linked to activity in the conditions in the tropics or not. the answer was yes and atm the conditions arnt conducive to another hot spell for a while... ok theres always august, and things might get into place by then... the bbq summer? another 95? ...lol..unfortunately not.

thanks

had a humingbird hawk moth feeding on honeysuckle on wednesday morning a first in my garden... pity there no decent hot spell coming up to bring out the butterflies/moths

may i ask , is it possible to get a heatwave here without all these composites falling into place? or is our weather inextricably linked to tropical convection etc in the indian/pacific oceans?

gutted :lol: , thanks anyway john, i hope you are wrong!