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mushymanrob

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    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mushymanrob

    18 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

    I'm wary of the ECM anomolies after they sold us down the river on a high pressure dominated July!


    absolutely... the ECM Anomalies are hardly worth looking at past week 2, they have varied so much. I guess we need consistency before they can be taken seriously and atm there is none.
     

    14 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

    Regardless of what the anomaly charts are showing for the next 10-21 days, there’s a pressure rise coming our way. 
     

    The GFS has consistently been showing ridges of HP from around August 2nd for the past few days. Some of its output being more extreme, some output being more realistic, and I think at this point that it can’t just be dismissed. 
     

    I think perhaps people are looking for something spectacular in the mid-long term and dismissing what’s directly in front of us. Realistically, there’s nothing on the charts that’s remotely spectacular, there’s nothing reminiscing of June and there’s no ‘European heatwave extension’. There’s just some drier, sunnier weather on the horizon for the first week in August. 
     

    Positively, there’s also some warmer days showing up for the first week of August with consistency. This is a marked improvement over the entirety of July, and that’s certainly something to look forward to. It’s a pattern change and it’s what we’ve been looking for, just not an extremely amazing one which is what June perhaps made us more accustomed to. 

    lol.. you say that, but..... the GFS average 850hpa chart August 4th
    image.thumb.png.1953df5c2023daa676025da7336e98a4.png

    This agrees with the anomalies , so ignore the anomalies at your peril! lol.. unless all the anomalies start to agree with a pressure build into early August, any operational run showing that is highly likely to be inaccurate.
    As i see it, August is likely to be better than July, from cool unsettled to average unsettled... with the old North South bias for warmest, sunniest, driest conditions in the South. But theres no heatwave or plume likely before mid August at the earliest.

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    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

    I saw @mushymanrob that the confidence runs for both the NOAA charts were 3 out of 5, so on the face of it not completely certain and I guess it'll be dependent if we get a niño standing wave event that can change course.  

    NOTHING is certain until the moment it happens... but the NOAA arent on their own as my post illustrates... chances of all of these suites being far out are remote.

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    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

    For those who say 2012 was not going to happen again ,well it already has to a lot of folks ,and with charts like these where there is no let up or signs of a change in weather pattern in the reliable and unreliable time frame.  This summer is going to be tagged along the likes of 2007 and 2012 .........😲😩😰 The only saving grace was June.......☺

    h500slp-4.webp

    Could contain:

    3 wet weeks in july and youre comparing it to 2012 and 2007?... even if it stopped wet this year couldnt be as bad because of the glorious june.

    • Like 14

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 hours ago, DaveF said:

    Some hope from the ECMWF Extended Range. Blocked regime and positive MSLP anomalies from 7th August onwards.

    image.thumb.png.41ce919b155620b3caba0872e3501948.pngScreenshot2023-07-24at00_16_49.thumb.png.2b909530790cb21900f9b7dc08f414c3.pngScreenshot2023-07-24at00_17_00.thumb.png.8391a607abaa04731faf6d5ef4a93832.pngScreenshot2023-07-24at00_17_08.thumb.png.5459e9a91224330ca0cba05616213a88.pngScreenshot2023-07-24at00_17_18.thumb.png.2d6deaa3cf80e8b9b189647e36ec61f4.png

     

    7 hours ago, DaveF said:

    Some more hopeful signals (all correlated with the above since from the same run): Height and wind anomalies and time-longitude plot suggest high pressure centred over the UK / North Sea late August-early September. Maybe this summer will be good early and late with a terrible middle.

    Screenshot2023-07-24at00_40_44.thumb.png.89e4ae3d6dd88ec885956021a8556a7b.pngScreenshot2023-07-24at00_40_34.thumb.png.00254c2bef1f7ac5b0bcb8e8aa8d31de.png

    Screenshot2023-07-24at00_48_38.thumb.png.e9cf0e7d9ea448bff58623a8c10a27a9.pngScreenshot2023-07-24at00_48_47.thumb.png.fb48e262a305d3aba54fba18db28a6a5.png

    Screenshot2023-07-24at00_43_23.thumb.png.0c4bc64e9cbefa80bda4a4f90e7e5dfc.png

    The general rule of thumb when viewing charts at that range is consistency... these did not show blocking yesterday, and before i get my hopes up id like to see blocking being shown consistenly.
    PLUS ..... the EPS currently does not agree with these charts, although the next run due out before midday might.
    image.thumb.png.0c94d99beb37e7bd2be6f1013ecb5881.png

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    Model discussion highlights

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Troughing set to remain dominant in a mean Westerly flow into August
    image.thumb.png.aeba9831fb11b286c5f31845d271ab56.png

    which can be seen on the GFS average for ten days time,
    image.thumb.png.cd326b8f8d7497093c160c8128d501ef.png

    and theres not much change in 2 weeks time although imho these charts are closer to average
    image.thumb.png.20da532062b1ce262290692b42479831.png

    Yet again this chart suggests any return to high pressure dominance has now been put back until the 15th at the earliest
    image.thumb.png.f60fad2f83a2bf82a26cc5bac7b5a592.png

    To me, the first half of August is looking average which isnt bad , but its not settled and there no real warmth/heat away from the Southeast.


    Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99056-model-output-discussion-mid-summer-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4893738
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    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Troughing set to remain dominant in a mean Westerly flow into August
    image.thumb.png.aeba9831fb11b286c5f31845d271ab56.png

    which can be seen on the GFS average for ten days time,
    image.thumb.png.cd326b8f8d7497093c160c8128d501ef.png

    and theres not much change in 2 weeks time although imho these charts are closer to average
    image.thumb.png.20da532062b1ce262290692b42479831.png

    Yet again this chart suggests any return to high pressure dominance has now been put back until the 15th at the earliest
    image.thumb.png.f60fad2f83a2bf82a26cc5bac7b5a592.png

    To me, the first half of August is looking average which isnt bad , but its not settled and there no real warmth/heat away from the Southeast.

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    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

    2007 springs to mind… the flooding in Gloucestershire was so bad that Gloucester city was close to having its power cut as a major electrical substation nearly went underwater. As someone who works outside, even the last 4 weeks haven’t been as bad of a handful of summers in the last 15 years. Maybe that’s just a ‘local’ thing for me…

    outdoor worker here too, i agree... far from bad...

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Maz said:

    The Hovmoller chart does offer some limited hope.  The strong low pressure at 0 degrees dissipates from 30th July.  The high pressure signal to our west gets a bit closer.  Yes, there is then a blip with a couple of days with low pressure at 0 degrees again early August.

    Signal then weakens, but some indication of higher pressure.

    The ECM anomalies for early August are more neutral (no shading) rather than low pressure.

    So, I think still a signal of a move to average August weather.  That would be a whole lot better than now.

    So far im finding the Hovmoller chart to be accurate out to ten/14 days, with the developing pattern appearing in the 15-20 days range. This is whats been happening, and all distant signs of an improvement never start to develop.

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    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mushymanrob

    At last we are beginning to see some pressure rise nudging in to our South.. its a long way to go, painfully long.. we just need to see that trough lifted instead of being maintained... No heat week 1 August... but more average, any heat will be week 2 at the earliest. the only blob of blue in the Northern Hemisphere is still affecting us...
    image.thumb.png.d1645166619137f1ac7b1a93e32defc7.png

     

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    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mushymanrob

    23 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

    Not really knowledgeable on background drivers but is that why mid/long range accuracy for July was so poor?

    Based on MJO predictions?

    According to this chart, the MJO has been in the circle of doom since at least June 10th, so i cannot see any forcing from the MJO - which in itself may be a contributory factor..

    image.thumb.png.06118d564292d0196256095e791c0f1d.png

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    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Trom said:

    Mushy am I right in thinking that due to the averaging process in the anomaly charts (across models and time) it would take something to show up on one of the models for a more consistent time (i.e number of runs) before the anomalies would show it?  Just checking my understanding.

    yes, that is true that if a change develops at say day 12-14 the 8-14 day chart will probably not pick it up first. but then again its less likely to lead you up the garden patch... lol

    however, i do now use the EPS alongside the noaas.. and IF the EPS is in agreement with the NOAAs at the days they are centred on, then we can get a better idea of which way things are headin in the 12 - 14 day range.

    So this chart centred on the 29th
    image.thumb.png.d3282e3357d2b04b4aae4a937b7389e7.png

    is a good match to the EPS on the 29th
    image.thumb.png.905414986322b2f59ef10c09fc989c10.png

    Then subsequent EPS charts to day 15
    image.thumb.png.8879ab5f40725bb2bbea5df40acbba60.png
    image.thumb.png.f31b20d8c8daf9ae5eb6a70b20740aea.png
    image.thumb.png.fb1e2d866f5e4b861dd5d7171461107c.png

    Would suggest that we can see in which direction the NOAAs are heading. So far though ive found the EPS not to be as reliable.. but IMHO is a really good tool and when used together with the NOAA strengthens and furthers out "most likely" evolution out to day 15....

    In this case, there are grounds for a painfully slow evolution towards high pressure domination as we enter into early August, albeit as an Atlantic ridge at first. But these charts still dont bring much of a pressure increase to our South , like the bullish GFS  predicted Azores ridge . But at this timescale.... there will be uncertainty.

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    Noctilucent Cloud Season 2023

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Arnie Pie said:

    With last night and tonight being at that stage of the 5 day full rotation, which has been contant for giving displays over the UK.

    NOAA is still showing a fluctuating mass, although this latest image are showing 'arms' of clouds down to the 60° Lat, in the relevant areas for the UK

    noaa2117(1).thumb.jpg.da30033801fea40afb1257243561939c.jpg

    With a clearer night/ morning forecast & OSWIN showing earlier in the formation zone.

    I cant help feeling positive about the chances of a display over night😉

    i was thinking of trying tonight.. looks like itll be on the clear side..

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    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    They have been superb recently, yes. I feel they do particularly well when things are stable. The 6-10 chart I feel pretty confident about. During some recent summers the 8-14 has missed a couple of heatwaves. But it's usually a good guide. The problem is probably us - we desire concrete predictions as far into the future as possible, and we're perhaps not as close to that as we'd like especially beyond D10.

    To  "stable" id add "regular" ... as in when we have a regular longwave pattern from the West. They do pick out incoming ridges/troughs very well as a rule.. but blocked patterns is when they arent at their best (but nor is any other tool).
    But look at us.... amateurs talking about picking out developing patterns at day ten ! not only from anomalies either... i remember when the pros could get past day three!

    Thats a testiment to how far the understanding of our weather has come in conjunction with modern technology.

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