mushymanrob
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Posts posted by mushymanrob
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2 hours ago, Snowycat said:
I would love to see a laughing symbol and have done for a while, I do feel it would give positive vibes. Some of the posts are really so funny at times.
NO!
It is used on facebook to ridicule someone.... try to produce facts to a flat earther and their response will be a laughing emoji...-
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6 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:
Had to wait until after 3am for a gap in the clouds to appear
didnt see anything over rewa last evening, lindenburg is down, flenny was rather cloudy when i looked. found no sign on any clear webcam.. so its interesting that these showed up.. maybe i didnt give other sites a chance...
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9 hours ago, mushymanrob said:Well i hope youre right, but theres no sign of anything remotely "improved" on this latest chart that now goes out to August 1st. Although it does seem to be slightly flatter.
This chart is centred on the 29th, and the EPS supports this pattern...
But what happens next? ..... EPS Aug 2nd its extent
ECM surface anomaly Aug 7th - 14th
500mb anomaly 7th - 14th
and ...
So there ARE now signs of an improvement, albeit painfully slow , by the second week of August - My favoured NOAA charts will not have this timeframe in view for another week, so this will be a test of the ECM charts to see IF they can nose out a pattern change 3 weeks ahead. This would of course vindicate Tamara, MattH and Scott who have stuck to their guns in predicting an improvement as they have gone to great lengths to explain...
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Oh i see someone dislikes my comment refusing to explain why i use the anomalies....
Does that mean they would like me to repeat myself for the umpteenth time? LOL
Ive seen dislike being used on posts i have no idea why they have. Like methuselas (or however its spelt) in the mod thread... i cant for the life of me understand why!
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:
I think some people get too invested in absolutes on here too. It’s not as simple as increasing AAM = heatwave for UK. If it was that simple we’d be forecasting specifics 4 weeks in advance. There are absolutely no certainties with weather, just a game of probabilities.
When people like Tamara and Matt give their input, they are talking in increased/decreased probability terms. People need to understand it’s not absolute.
The probability is the weather will turn drier and warmer into August but that is as much as can be said.
Couldnt agree more!
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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Here’s the averaged GEFS height anomaly for Aug 3rd. What HP/warm anomaly are we meant to be looking at exactly?
I expect the latest EPS out later will be on the same page , earlier ones were..
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3 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:You seem to take anomalies too seriously. The GFS and other ensembles are hinting for high pressure and warmer air at the end of July and start of August, which is when the professionals (Tamara I believe is one) here are stating a change. These charts update daily, and may not notice the changes until the next day or two when certainty rises.
Im not going over this yet again. If you think that then scroll on. I dont care.
This subject has been done to death, theres a reason why i use these charts as the basic guide ...
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6 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:
Great capture .. i did see a similar structured display on the Flensburg cam earlier on and wondered whether it would make the trip, the glow was visible from Birmingham but nothing captured
Arnie.... how much longer is it realistically possible to see NLCs ?
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10 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
Yep. Bang on cue that time wise.
This is the pattern that to me is really inevitable (albeit 2 weeks later than myself and others who use gdsm products namely tamara and matt h anticipated)
The atmosphere is set up to really only go in this one direction next
Well i hope youre right, but theres no sign of anything remotely "improved" on this latest chart that now goes out to August 1st. Although it does seem to be slightly flatter.
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.......... to add, i think a person might be put off posting if they construct a good post but because its not what people want to hear, gets a load of negative reactions.
if you can sort out the difference between the quality of the post and its message, then fair enough, but that cannot be done.
.......... i also am aware that without any reaction facilities then youll never know which are popular...-
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The problem is..... are they agreeing/disagreeing with what the posts says or the posters analysis?...
Ive "liked" posts that were well reasoned and constructed even though i dont like what was said... i mean, the times a well constructed, reasoned post has said something the general crew dont like (mild in winter, cool in summer) gets hardly any reaction ... but a BLAH post, sayiing "boom" or "its coming" , something trite like that gets loads of "likes".
The "like" and now "dislike" will have little bearing on the quality of the post, but will be determined by what it says.-
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57 minutes ago, Lincs Observation said:
Interesting again from Mr Peacock
https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1681218912510255107?s=46&t=FDRXB-PdoXSULLPenJr_eA
that has very little chance of happening..
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14 hours ago, Metwatch said:
Evening all, hope you all well. I guess that's me probably out of the game for hunting NLC'S this season, however maybe in early August could manage a late season display when I come back. I know @Iceman2606captured some during early August 2020.
P.s, hoping you are recovering as well. @mushymanrob
im back to normal now.... not downplaying covid but for me it was nowt..
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8 hours ago, danm said:
Tbh most people in summer are looking for sunshine and warmth.
August can provide plenty of that. But yes, no evidence currently for the start of this August.
Bob the Builder or Bohemian Rhapsody?... both number ones, both popular.... sorry, i want more out of Summer than sunshine and heat alone because imho thats what Summer is... anyway...
9 hours ago, mushymanrob said:Mitchelin star resturant or a maccy d's ?..... The point is thast yes we can enjoy the decent weather but i would enjoy it MORE, a lot more, when my scented summers flowers are out in full bloom like they are now. If you dont care about the others things that make a summer a summer, thats your choice.
Meanwhile things go from bad to worse... These charts have been bang on so far, and this latest suggests conditions get worse, not better as we approach August, but at least Spain cools down (removing the chances of any plume )
IF this chart is anywhere near accurate then theres no heat before the second week of August at the earliest.
Ok... the latest EPS for the 28th (centre point of the NOAA chart posted)
Clearly supports the NOAA, however if we progress the EPS until the end of its run
... on August 1st, DOES suggest a change with stronger ridging to our West and weaker troughing to our East. These charts are still a million miles away from allowing above average let alone heat - but - its a start, now if only we could get the ridge to drift Eastwards...
ECM agrees
but doesnt progress any height building
This chart agrees too with the Atlantic ridge, but doesnt offer any high pressure dominance before August 6th..
So possible hints of a change, but theres no heat on offer before the second week in August at the earliest.-
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Nowt on any webcam, mostly cloudy here anyway.
Goin to bed! Lol
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24 minutes ago, danm said:
It often perplexes me when some seem to write off August as the start of Autumn rather than a bonafide summer month. It may herald the decent to Autumn in the far north but at least further south, it can bring plenty of hot weather. Yes, the nights start to draw in but August has historically provided us with some of our hottest temperatures. Particularly the first half of the month.
August 2020 had 6 consecutive days above 33c here, 4 of them above 35c. I doubt we’d ever see that in June.
If youre satisfied with heat and heat alone... fair enough.
But IF the latest NOAA charts are anything like accurate then we will have a very long wait for anything above average let alone warm/hot
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13 minutes ago, cheese said:
I have never associated July with blooming flowers so it’s irrelevant to me. May & June are the months I associate with that. July and August are for hot days, balmy summer nights & occasional thunderstorms (or at least they would be in an ideal world).
But yes, the output still looks gash.
Youre talking to a professional gardener of 50 years here m8... im telling you that the scented garden flowers i grow, in particular jasmine and lilies, flower from late june the mid August, add the buddlieas that are starting now.
5 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:There does seem to be reluctance from NOAA to shift the goal posts as if it were, they are being incredibly cautious currently and seem worried about getting criticised if it all goes pear shaped.
I have no idea what you mean. The NOAA couldnt give a damn if they are seen to be "right" or not... IF, after all their years they have been running, havnt found their system to be accurate enough, they wouldnt publish. So im sorry but your post makes no sense.
As it happens, im surprised the latest chart i posted has downgraded and chance of recovery... itll be interesting to see if this evenings EPS supports it.-
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1 hour ago, cheese said:
. I mean, when have you ever heard anyone say ‘I really can’t enjoy this warm, sunny August weather because the swifts have gone’?
Mitchelin star resturant or a maccy d's ?..... The point is thast yes we can enjoy the decent weather but i would enjoy it MORE, a lot more, when my scented summers flowers are out in full bloom like they are now. If you dont care about the others things that make a summer a summer, thats your choice.
Meanwhile things go from bad to worse... These charts have been bang on so far, and this latest suggests conditions get worse, not better as we approach August, but at least Spain cools down (removing the chances of any plume )
IF this chart is anywhere near accurate then theres no heat before the second week of August at the earliest.-
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Yes, Simon Luckman pictures some faint ones this morning...
The question is .... is it worth keeping an eye out now? seeing as its been a poor season, we are now further away fro the solstics than June 1st is... i dont mind making an effort, but ive been dashed so many times during the height of the season. Not sure horizon huggers are worth it tbh.-
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41 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
Supposedly the ancient Britons saw the transition to autumn happening sometime in the 2nd half of August- of course they went by the sun and changes vegetation as opposed to any scientific definition of summer starting and ending at the start/conclusion of calendar months.
............. Before we started making seasons "official" they were dictated by daylength... At least up into Saxon times , Spring early Feb- Early may, Summer early May - early August, Autumn early August - early November and Winter early November - early Feb. That fits far better with nature and explains why midsummers day is only 3 days after "the official" start of Summer... official my "r s"
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3 hours ago, Scorcher said:
I have to agree with this- this IS the peak of summer now with the days still long and the sun still at its strongest. August just isn't quite the same- especially the 2nd half of the month.
Exactly this....... 2nd half of August is Autumnal.. not so much weather wise but in nature... swifts have gone, NLCs gone, harvest, longer nights... and as i said, my scented plants are in bloom NOW.
Summer for me isnt just about heat/sun, the banquet that is Summer has far more to offer .-
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well .....
We "wrote off " July" several days ago as these consistent NOAA charts are a million miles away from allowing anything remotely warm. Theyd need a complete 180... As they are consistent, then we are a very long way off from anything seasonal.
Whether anything emerges in August is atm in the hands of the gods. Its good to see Matt H and Tamara re sticking to their guns and do expect an improvement. But for me - Summer is ruined... my lilies and assorted scented Summer flowers are in bloom NOW... and 2 weeks in June has been forgotten already...-
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8 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:
Hope your ok Rob
8 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:Second that Rob
tbh i didnt know i got it.. after getting wet on friday i thought it was just your normal cold... went to bed to sweat it out... only my oh, who was orrly last week, found a covid test, on me... looks like we both had it..
ok now, back to normal.. chhers guys
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Got chinese bat disease so wont be venturing out.
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I also use the EPS now as well, that suite often supports the NOAA but as its a daily slider we can spot minor changes within the NOAA anomaly chart mean. I find using both together when they agree has made them even more accurate, and with the EPS going out a little further, gives us a stronger view of the horizon..