mushymanrob
-
Posts
8,995 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
18
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by mushymanrob
-
-
think it was better in the south, agreed about june, but july and august werent bad, dry, warm, but in derby no heatwave and hot sun.
-
Just now, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
The CET is still above average though and as other posters here have stated that the warm Atlantic is ensuring it happens. Reckon another thing to keep an eye on is the hovmoller plots and see where they go.
The CET may be above average atm, but we are entering a protracted period on a Northwesterly sourced flow... despite the warm SSTs in the North Atlantic this month may well finish below average... anyway, time will tell.
-
1
-
-
22 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
Think @johnholmesit wouldn't take all that much for the jet stream to shift further north again and a number of tweaks needed. We are simply in a lull, even June 1997 and July 2009 had lulls in the weather.
It could also move South.. thats the beauty of the "mean" charts over that period, they iron out "upgrades" and "downgrades" giving a more balanced view.
-
3
-
-
These charts dont make good viewing
6 - 10
8 - 14 increases troughing
For any warmth/heat by early August these charts would need to be 100% wrong, which in ten years ive never seen. Doesnt mean it cant happen... but...-
6
-
1
-
-
rewa has them as well as lindenburg... most of northern europe is cloudy although its clearing here
-
1
-
-
57 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
Just seen a snap shot of the NOAA anomolies at 8-14 days time, they still have the trough over us, but with an average confidence rating, so in fairness they are not certain if it'll happen or not.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php
3/5 confidence for days 8-14 is higher than most for that timeframe and is consistent. NO model suite is ever certain at that range
-
1
-
-
Ive gone through my old pictures.. i can say ive not seen anything past this date, although theres a few out to the 20th that might have had them, partially hidden by cloud.
-
1
-
-
9 hours ago, Sprites said:
Some good photos from NE England, it's clearer there recently.
Yes there was a decent morning display up there..
-
2
-
-
Every sign in deep FI of an improvement keep getting shunted back
The GFS mean
EPS
There charts not only are consistent and agree , but are a million miles away from any pattern that would bring warmth/heat. To me the outlook for the rest on the Month suggests below average unsettled.-
6
-
2
-
1
-
-
cloudy....
-
2
-
-
18 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
You know what @mushymanrobI think we are set for the most westerly July ever in living memory. Even that chart has westerlies in it.
No we arent, The output isnt far off normal . This month is unlikely to rank amongst the wettest Julys which is what we would expect from a strong Westerly. Julys of 07, 08, 09, 12, 17 were all very wet, and ill wager most of not all were Westerly based julys
-
2
-
-
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Well I was rather surprised that a couple of lines I wrote last night, based purely upon observation of this thread and the models, in a very non confrontational manner, got a pretty stinging attack last night!!!
@MattH, I offer an apology, yes I was too broad-brushed in mentioning LRFs without context - I was referring to many long range predictions that had been shared on this forum in June (not including yours), which mostly went for trough west/ridge east anomalies for July. I'm afraid I don't have much time to write so I'm sometimes overly brief, too brief this time.
However, my response to Tamara yesterday was down to a bit of twitchiness at the insistence by some that a turnaround is coming soon. Anyone who has seen my tweets over the past decade know how much I want this to be true! But I simply and honestly don't think that claim can be made at the moment with excessive confidence, and I don't think such voices should be shouted down. The NWP isn't perfect but the ECM ensembles up to D15 is doing a good job IMO.
I present this morning's ECM clusters D11-D15 - they would suggest a write off for a heatwave in July.
I'd be both shocked and delighted if these clusters are completely wrong!
for what its worth, imho the response was a little ott, i didnt get anything out of your post that was anything but an honest opinion and one based on reality... LRFs are hard to get right.. BUT .. i do admire and respect those who are trying to produce them.
Meanwhile - theres no sign of any change towards anything warm/hot on the EPS out towards the end of the Month... Im not saying anyone is wrong, im just commenting that SO FAR theres no sign of a change, a change that may well come of this source (that i find is usually pretty accurate)
-
7
-
1
-
-
14 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:
Me also.
but with no official sightings over the UK as to yet, it really goes to show there`s no second guessing these pesky clouds
Edit Another chance tonight looking at OSWIN ?
i think rewa was very low on the horizon, so maybe a low northern display here?.. but either there wasnt, there was cloud or no one bothered to look! (like me)
14 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:Me also.
but with no official sightings over the UK as to yet, it really goes to show there`s no second guessing these pesky clouds
Edit Another chance tonight looking at OSWIN ?
id prefer to see those echoes later in the day.. early evening.
As for tonight.. reckon cloud will be an issue looking at the radars-
2
-
-
4 hours ago, DanN said:
Nothing between 2-3am either.
really?.... that surprises me..
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, mb018538 said:
As long as it's not this, I don't mind the mean below. Wouldn't be hot, but around average and decent enough out of showers.
noaa are bang in line with those charts
-
2
-
-
Giving up. Absolutely no sign and its all but dark.
-
1
-
-
Last nights had started by now and i can see no sign, although it is rather cloudy right of capella and on the horizon
-
1
-
-
4 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:
Thanks, I might just head off to bed then and set the alarm, they appear to be quite bright which bodes well for later, and they're reasonably high.
Hopefully the it stays clear like it is now, the conditions here right now are perfect
Good luck!
Quite cloudy here, ill only get partial views of anything high. No chance of horizon huggers... bugger..
-
3
-
-
10 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:
This is also looking positive
Does that translate to a morning display, or might we just get something before midnight?
Depends how far West they stretch... morning almost cert
-
2
-
1
-
-
lindenburg
-
2
-
-
They are NLCs, they are visible across Northern Europe...
Rewa
-
4
-
-
2 hours ago, Metwatch said:
If you got the Samsung S22 ultra, it should be in the advanced picture options in camera settings, then press second option for photos shot in pro.
i have no idea where advanced picture options are... lol.. yes its a samsung s22 ultra..
found it, turned raw on
meanwhile, .... nlcs seem to be coming into view across northern europe
-
3
-
-
3 hours ago, Sprites said:
Does the phone have RAW format?
It should be better quality than jpg.
Dont think so... i downloaded it to my pc, its there that i saved it as jpg.
-
Last nights sequence, between 23.20 and 1200
not happy with these, my last phone took better shots... got tripod n all...
-
4
-
Noctilucent Cloud Season 2023
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
the question is... will todays shower cloud break up enough to allow a clear/ish view tonight?