oliverek7

ok this is 9 days out but looking at ECM 00z and GFS 12z today there could be a low forming in the Bay of Biscay towards the end of the month, throwing up heat, humidity and the potential for the next thundery spell from the south. If the centre of these lows can remain in the Bay of Biscay or slightly further west then any storm events would be much more successful and widespread hopefully, without any Kent Clippers. We shall see how this all pans out!

Ok vent incoming— Ugh, why does everything get sooo hyped up by all the weather forecasters etc and looks promising on the models and then always ends up being a wet mess over London and much of the SE with a small little area of lightning on the coasts. This has happened for nearly 3 years straight with these import events. It’s just so deflating to see this happen again and again I’m longing for something like 26th May 2018 at least these days. Yes there’s another few days of potential but ? we’ll just have to see.

They better do...

I’m getting a bit of a sinking feeling now because of this wet mess over me in south London now... giving me deja vu, I really really hope some proper stuff comes later

Tell you what, gfs 18z is a good’un with successive lows coming up from the south all the way till Sunday

It’s now the time when I get anxious for every new model output . Stop bloody shifting around and making me nervous

the BBC getting the temps off by a whole 5C at the moment on their forecast ? it’s -1C in London

Woah big crackle out of the cell south of London. Just electrified

Big towers going up to my west (first pic) and south (second pic)

Yeah that’s not gonna get anywhere. I still can’t believe my best storm of the year was on the 6th of June when it was only 14C as the maximum temp yet was possibly one of the most CG lightning focused storms I’ve seen. Must have been serious instability to support that because heat clearly wasn’t a factor

Can anyone see the third updraft at the moment? Or too dark.

Yep. Im sure tomorrow any storms we get here will be much more potent as the sun will actually be out! The low cloud lingered for about 3 days. Wouldn’t shift

Yep I’m just a couple of miles west of Bromley. Must be the lack of CAPE from daytime heating as the sun only came out for about an hour after that cloud cleared

Not sure if I’m under the new updraft? I can see the secondary updraft from the London cell to my north (very very close) and when I look straight up it’s very dark so I assume I’m about to be in something

Think the second southerly cell has fully had it now. Can see more CBs behind it on the satellite though I think

Ooh having another updraft attempt

Don’t think it’s quite gonna get up there

Precipitation out of the south London cell now

It keeps trying though

Argh. Collapsed

4th attempt now

Oh we’re looking at different ones