[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Hey folks it could be next weekend before milder conditions reach the far NE going on met update.

At this rate by the time that cold clears the next push will be on the cards! Uncertainty remains key on how quickly that milder air extends North!

Expect the unexpected from the models in the days ahead and don't be dropping your heads when some of the output goes all out mild.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Come on folks get behind me...the mogreps 6z ens are giving that cold air more of a chance of fighting back...alot more runs going colder again than yesterday! This ain't a done deal yet.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I'm officially opening the cold chase 2...we've been successful on the 1st chase...ie...cold for a week and now a fair few in a met office warning for this evening overnight.....my area included. So some will be waking up to wintry scenes.

Plenty of interest in the 6z ens...blocking options very much on the table...and I'm pretty sure a mild mid month spell as brought us something much colder a little later many times in the past...key focus for me is the final 3rd.

So let's real it in with a big fishing rod...come to papa cold block...come to papa.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

14 minutes ago, Lincs Observation said:

Looks like everyone can take a break and relax for the next week as me move into the transition, might do some of us some good to look away from the models before we go again in the lead up to the Christmas holidays.

time to concentrate on Christmas shopping and pre Christmas work parties.

This last period has been very interesting indeed and I suspect that the fun is far from over as we turn into the new year.

back in a week to see what’s going on 

 

Don't be telling the Netweather owners that..ie take a break and turn this place into a graveyard! Let's keep the place buzzing right through the December period!

Don't be focusing to much on parties as your judgement will become seriously clouded from intoxication my friend

For several days back to back we have seen very negative 0z data being churned out,only for the 12s to upgrade yet again!

A difference in the data? No probably not but a problem with the data handling the sypnotics! Perhaps swinging from overplayed Atlantic incursion and downplayed cold blocking,to this scenario being switched around again.

So I would say hold fire and wait for the 12s and the 18s to run and see if this current trend continues,or its yet again nwp struggling to get too grips with the evolutions.

The longer term situation still looks exciting anyway,and I can guarantee the next cold wave will yet again cause havoc with the models.

So enjoy your Weekend and get some shopping done and let's keep the atmosphere in this place buzzing...as by and large its been electric the last couple of weeks.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

It's Friday its five to 5 it's.....hang on a sec that's crackerjack

It's Friday It's quarter 2 to 12 It's chucking out time at the pubs....or it's GFS time that is I must admit not shocking me with it's output,only surprising a little on how quickly things move on.

The blocking on offer is sublime and this is getting a seriously regular sign now...we've seen the met update today hinting at what could come,and its being reflected in the output right now.

It seriously looked like a mild sweep of air would set us back several weeks....well that's the worry when it gets a foot in...but the models seem more keen in sending us into Winter proper as the month progresses! In all honesty I've not seen so much blocking since 2010 appearing.

This may seem premature but I'm thinking there's a good possibility of Exeter upgrades in the days ahead.

Come on folks our time is due and let's get right behind these possibilities and keep the netweather servers steaming.

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm not sure how much confidence I have in EC46 but the signal for that block seems to be growing ...

Hey mate like many on here..your confidence drops when it's going blocked...but increases when it goes zonal

Seriously NW I'm liking the jibe to this Winter...the models are already hinting at what we could be rewarded with! Well rewards if your a cold chaser.. but a bloody nightmare if your a mild lover and likes to save one's pennies

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Ec 46 looks pretty interesting. Those ec ens i must admit Hemisphericaly speaking have me almost  as excited as!!!!!!! Not gonna say the year So many blocking options and again so many show the pv to be in trouble.. Could this be the year it never rages and never gets time to settle down...I think it could be.

Onwards and upwards  

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

What the met mention earlier regarding the 1st part of the forecast...ie...cold could return is perfectly summed up from tonight's ECM run...yes it may well turn milder next week...but I'm now seriously thinking it's going to be a brief situation.

We have heights into scandy and some serious blocking to the Alaska area. Look at the pv it's under stress...I really do feel it could fall late this month early January.

And ask yourself this...how often in the last few Winters have you seen scandy Heights being thrown up? Even in fi? Basically never...now its become a recurring theme... The models are obviously sensing something out.

Whatever happens next week...I feel mid month onwards is currently shaping up to be rather interesting! 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Hey Atlantic you've got your work cut out in the days ahead.

Thinks its easy to just barrel through do ya?

Well take a look at that dense cold pool building towards the NE and East! If I were you I'd bugger of South,unless your ready for a real dirty fight. Cause cold air is dense...its entrenched...and its gonna get bloody if you don't back off my son.

There's my less than scientific look on things folks

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Cat amongst the pigeons time here folks.

Slow and erratic progress of milder conditions next week..this cold could hold out till later next week further North. Beyond that less cold...not so much mild..but now includes that a return to colder conditions spreading back can't be ruled out!

Are we seeing the cold towards the NE not giving in so easy. Wouldn't be suprised to see a cold run up too Xmas here.

The excitement remains folks.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

It seems there is a lot of false hope in here. There is no way that surface cold can stop such forcing associated with a low like this. We will come back in 7 days time and see whether that -8C recorded yesterday was able to change southwesterlies to easterlies. If this backtracks, it wont be due to a surface inversion, it will be due to a medium range factor such as stratosphere AAM MJO or a large scale mid to upper level pressure system. Model inaccuracies related to overdoing temperatures during a breakdown are only temporary and surface based.

I think Kas the real talking point on here the last few days as been whether the fact the cold block can hold out from the Atlantic push.If that cold air locks in place we are in a better position moving forward. I don't think many or any really thought a several day cold surface pool would be enough to stop an Atlantic push.

Your pointing out there's a lot of false hope in here...yet how many times in the last few days have you changed your mind and forecast? One minute you've said it's looking good for the cold to hold on....the next its not looking good at all. Then we are looking well placed for snow events,for a few hours later to state its not set up properly for snow events due too the nature of the sypnotics!

I'm not having a dig at you cause your obviously very well educated, but to say many in here have false Hope is kind of pot kettle and black.

 

 

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

You have misunderstood my post, I said cold air itself just the fact of it being cold being able to completely change an outcome when it is already modelled is not very likely. I have a formal qualification and meteorological interests myself so I am well aware that cold air is dense but this would not simply be overlooked by a 5 trillion pound computer.

Come on Kasim..If all these multi million pound computers made it so easy we would simply not need to bother coming on here numerous times a day to check the direction of travel,as the models would have the pattern nailed all the time. Yet in reality we see long range forecasts bite the dust yearly,and several day forecasts sometimes miles out!

Yes your qualified and your good at it...but remember Jon H is as old school as they come. He was probably drawing charts when I was in my nappies.. And I always say you can't beat the old guard of Weather forecasters.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I am beginning to doubt that Saturday night's snowfall will occur at all at this stage, it may just be some snizzle. The issue is how weak the flow is, there is no real instability, heights aren't very low, no real pressure gradient, and there's little wind. It would make more sense for it not to happen, and I think these snow events downgrading are a result of models overcooking instability in the medium range, and once the events get within 60 hours or so the higher computer power is better able to resolve the lack of instability resulting in downgrades. Perhaps a better chance would be the next low early next week. However, there looks to be a strong Southerly component to the flow which may limit snowfall to higher parts of Wales and Northern England. There could be changes but this is what I'm realistically seeing, snizzle then some hill snow.

Bloody hell mate make ya mind up you said a few hours ago that your confidence was growing on a snow event this Sunday!

It's definitely one or the other.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Never mind the met office Deep Dive.

Heres Matts even Deeper Dive

Extended ec 12z ens beyond 10 days..Many options on the table with many favourable blocking heights...from Greenland too scandy blocking...too Russian/Ural blocking..and lower Med heights. Also many with a fragmented and shot to pieces PV.

All of this and it ain't even December for 1 and half hours.

Here's Matt keeping it alive with his weekly deep sea Dive

Sorry folks I lost the plot at the end..Xmas always does this to me.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I've viewed the 12z ecm ens..well half of them and it's obvious that so many want to keep the wintry theme going.. I've viewed the models for years and it's not often I see so many ensembles that bring such a cold looking NH..The PV still looks far from secure,and I really feel the outlook mid term is gonna cause some problems.

Am I concerned by met and Beeb updates who always seem to state the cold won't hold out.

1...Years ago barbecue summer prediction made...reality washout.

2.Several years ago cold blocking and frequent NEtly winds that never appeared on any of the charts we were viewing.

3. Last June...end of month..frequent heatwaves look most likely through July...reality..average temps and frequent washouts.

3..Im not aiming to say the best ain't got a clue...im merely stating the best get it wrong...and sometimes badly wrong.

4.Onwards and upwards.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Mmmmm...mogreps 12z.

You can see that we look good for cold out too day 6...Take a little look and the clustering goes up towards milder conditions...but towards end of the run we seem to have a little support for a colder theme again..classic signs of the models not necessarily being convinced of it going milder,and more so of how long it will last.

The plot thickens.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

The age old saying here.

The crowd are on the pitch they think it's all over!

Wo wo wo...get them off the pitch this is far from over!!!!!

Classic battle ground set up in the making! Amazing set up considering where we are meant to be heading....its early but this is becoming a strange one...

 

.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

The saga continues. If we can keep the jet South we at least keep in the game for that risk of snow events over the coming days..if we can hold out until the drivers can reinforce the situation that would just be a dream

Gfs late in the run...I was kind of concerned by a segment of pv over Canada and intensity of the cold pool...yet we see the Azores well receded from iberia..the Atlantic may even try to extend a ridge further Northwards and we appear to have some kind of stress being placed on the strat via some Ural blocking..all academic at this range...but the excitement at least continues.

Ohh and thanks for such great commentary during all of this..theres alot going into it and hopefully you can all take something out of it when all is said and done.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

So folks the only thing I can say with some degree of confidence is that 3 or 4 days from now milder air is going to (TRY) and make inroads from the W/SW. Now if it's slow and erratic we run the risk of snowfall, if it gets a move on then it's on towards the next chase! This theory is backed up with the met update which again uses the key word UNCERTAINTY!

Previous attempts over previous years have nearly always been successful in dislodging that cold air pretty quickly...Would it be any different this time? Well I would say yes,as the cold in place towards the NE as been in places for such a long time. So next week we will find out just how resilient it is! Keep in mind we have no current favourable drivers that help to reinforce this situation...so if the cold does win out then we really could be staring down the barrel of something different this Winter!

Onto the 12ss...Will they confirm what comes next? Probably not.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I'm coming at you from a little different angle today.

Mogreps 6z ens I would say are a good 80% in favour of the trend to less cold...How mild I'm not certain! For how long I'm even less certain! 

But I've put in the Oslo ens to see if the cold back aways from the NE...And it remains cold out towards day 8. Let's see how long we can keep that cold in place towards the NE. That would only benefit us further down the line.

Silly season begins on Friday. Yay its officially meteorological Winter...so try and enjoy yourselves and spend a little money if you can. If you can't then don't be coming to me for any,as I'm as free from money as a frog is from feathers.

The next chase awaits.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Woohoo got a nice white carpet courtesy of my favourite wind direction  

really hoping the 00z runs continue to move the lows south...

I ain't jealous one bit mate...dam you I'm gonna trace that numberplate!

Fair play and great to see,and here's how those little things just pop up from time to time.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

We seem to be here every evening after the 18z as run...its throws the cat amongst the pigeons! Again we see hints of the cold being extended...for this to be flagged up continuously just goes to show how there seems to be a little hesitation over the strength of that cold blocking. I wouldn't be at all suprised to see further upgrades during the next 24hrs or so.

And of interest for some some of you,just look at what the ec was showing a couple of weeks back regarding AO and NOA...yes there was very strong support for it to be in positive territory!

The general rule here being the models can get it not just wrong...but very wrong,even at a short timescale! We are far from finished with this current episode of will it or wont it.

The chuckle brothers of all Winters could be unfolding..

MILD SAYS...TO ME.

COLD SAYS...TO YOU!

@blizzard81 you deserve that snow mate...thats your mom having a little laugh to herself and sprinkling you with a little joy...fantastic Rob

 

 

[Model discussion highlights]

1 hour ago, Big Gally said:

   Judah cohen new tweet

This Canadian warming...have we already been seeing the precursors to that event with higher pressure around Greenland towards scandy perhaps! Judah also explains how he feels Canadian warmings don't tend to lead towards full on PV splits. And the fact that cold pools developing over Asia tend to be a good precursor to Cold American outbreaks..now I'm pretty sure this is something  our own met guys would be doing in the build up to Winter...ie checking out the density and expansion of that Asian cold pool.

Also pointed out that its the scandy urals blocking that put the most pressure on the PV bringing about a split...and one of there models keeps hinting at this occurring in January. I would also add is I would be very concerned for cold to start pooling over Canada and for that cold to start pushing South...because the end result will nearly always mean a fired up Jetstream across our latitude!

So will be worth in the coming weeks to keep an eye on mjo cycles the intensity of the cold over Siberia/Asia...and some focus on any intense cold building over Canada.

Lots that could scupper our chances,or greatly improve them.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4963775

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, Big Gally said:

   Judah cohen new tweet

This Canadian warming...have we already been seeing the precursors to that event with higher pressure around Greenland towards scandy perhaps! Judah also explains how he feels Canadian warmings don't tend to lead towards full on PV splits. And the fact that cold pools developing over Asia tend to be a good precursor to Cold American outbreaks..now I'm pretty sure this is something  our own met guys would be doing in the build up to Winter...ie checking out the density and expansion of that Asian cold pool.

Also pointed out that its the scandy urals blocking that put the most pressure on the PV bringing about a split...and one of there models keeps hinting at this occurring in January. I would also add is I would be very concerned for cold to start pooling over Canada and for that cold to start pushing South...because the end result will nearly always mean a fired up Jetstream across our latitude!

So will be worth in the coming weeks to keep an eye on mjo cycles the intensity of the cold over Siberia/Asia...and some focus on any intense cold building over Canada.

Lots that could scupper our chances,or greatly improve them.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I've viewed the 12z ecm ens and I've got a few for you.

Firstly we appear in a kind of no man's Land on many of them,with wedges of heights and low pressures scattered around all over the place. But literally all out towards day 9 show know strong PV situated over Canada and Greenland...its generally displaced further North and East,and generally looks like the sky rats have been nibbling it away bit by bit.

Less cold interludes and colder snaps look like a trend that could continue. Full on zonal I'm not seeing at all. If we can keep the NH behaving like this and that PV looking demoralised,then further chances will quickly follow the current one.. especially as we get a move on with the next mjo..not a magic bullet I no! But with a weak and fragmented Vortex it would serve to act as much greater catalyst moving forward.

We are far from alin a bad place as far as I'm concerned..and what many other respected posters on here also feel.

I bid you good evenings folks.

I really do need to get back to the Dr Who boxset