[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

They say getting winter into this country is now impossible!

I tell you what's even more impossible! Getting some positivity and patience into this forum on the....wait for it 31st December!

It's gradually becoming colder...surface cold will most likely come into play here..beyond that the situation perhaps gets more exciting!

New years resolution....I must have a little more patience...no more Amazon shopping I'll walk to the nearest warehouse and get it myself...yeh it might take longer..but the outcome is still the same...the goods arrive in the end...

Much love as always.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

I needed to jump out of semi retirement for this post..hope the mods don't mind.

When I joined this forum nearly 5 years ago I was sceptical of back ground drivers as I didn't really understand them..so I just played ignorant to it all....but I never disrespected any of the posters who shared this knowledge! As the years have rolled by the likes of Tamara..catacol...met4cast...chio..matt H.. eagle eye...(I could go on with this list as there's more of you) have completely changed my attitude to such a wonderful science,and the amount of work that goes into this subject with there posts is unreal! Do keep in mind many of the above are not professional! Yes you would think they were...they are that good at it,they simply have a gr8 passion for the subject and spend a hell of a lot of time studying,and then they pass this information on to us giving us the chance to learn something new!

I for one know for a fact some of them in the past have come close to stopping posting due to non stop criticism...and I've actually talked one of them out of it privately on more than one occasion!

Where do you think the Met get there long range forecasts from! A clairvoyant!! The tea leafs! It's all based on drivers around the globe and much of it is inputted into those monthly text updates.. yet when they're talking up cold and snow,everyone loves em! When they get it wrong they're useless! Get my point here!

Let's all dismiss those drivers and base our forecasts on 4 gfs runs a day! One run shows Greenland blocking...the next a bartlett high! Exactly!!! Its not quite that simple.

So I say to all of those that spend so much time bringing us these amazing insights with the teleconnections to please keep at it...most of us on this Forum want to keep learning from it.

Keep the peace folks...no point in dismissing something you either don't understand,or are simply not willing to try and understand.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Do some of you actually even view all the ensembles before making a call! Every morning everyday of the year its the same its all going wrong philosophy...the talk for a while as been the 2nd half to mid month period of January when things start to happen. But the old Amazon attitude of see something today,and want it tomorrow is in full affect.

The sheer amount of ens from ecm that really slice that NH open are large. There appears to.be hardly appetite for a flat zonal pattern at all.

I'm doing my best here to tell you how I see it and keep the positives high...if there was no ensemble support I wouldn't be posting. But so many its going wrong,it always goes wrong is making me have doubts now...even though I'm seeing good output.

Time out for me folks...im wishing you a very happy new year and all the luck and good health 2024 can throw at ya...if your suffering then I'm sending you strength and wishing you a full recovery. Its my Dad's funeral next week so time for me to try and get my head straight.

Keep the belief it looks OK.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

For those doubting any potential colder weather i ask you to view the 12z ecm ens. Hemisphericaly there are some sublime solutions and lots of them. You would actually think there as been a full on split and reversal with some of them. Some of the best ens I've seen for a while.

I'm increasingly confident we are heading for a colder snap that could last easily a couple of weeks..I also feel that as January progresses those zonal winds will once again begin to slow and the strat further weaken. I wouldn't at all be suprised to see wintry spells both through January and February...personally I think this is the best place we've been in since 2013...

Folks do enjoy your evening and have a little new year's eve drink with me...I say a toast to you all and I make a toast to my Dad and to all the other members lost loved ones.

Exciting times ahead and a colder trend I feel gathers momentum.

And another heads up for the big snow of 47 on channel 5 new years day at 9..theres a reason they're putting this on I tell you...its a bloody tuff act to follow...but lets give it a shot

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Come onnnnnnnnnn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Woooaaaaahhhhhhh!!!!!

Where's Shaky

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Gem says Happy New Year netweather.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Loving the anomolies and that looks a pretty strong signal.

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Hey folks...p1 is obviously smelling the coffee ️  

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Why do so many lose there minds on this thread every evening or every morning! What makes me laugh is the fact that some will have an hissy fit of the evening thinking it's all over and gone wrong before stating the next morning how gr8 it looks when you see a better det run or 2!

Some of you need to consider a new hobbie if you can't keep things in perspective while viewing weather models! 

Ssw?? If this would have occurred next week we wouldn't be seeing anything in the models to suggest it...either now or in even 2 weeks time! There would be no guarantee that it would extend or make any colder weather more severe... with colder weather in place it and favourable sypnotics it could have actually squandered it! A weak strat is all we we need for now and there's an hell of a lot of emphasis being put on a split vortex by many right now! Yes with a lousy pattern it's most definitely needed...but not with a favourable set up in place.

There are so many favourable ensembles again this evening...but it seems some of you can't see the woods for the trees!

I'm getting fed up of saying the word PATIENCE! so perhaps CHILL would be more suited.

Don't let any of this be ruining your New Year's celebrations folks.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Good evening runs so far and nice ensembles. I think the output will begin to firm up and improve further in the days ahead.

Who needs a split when we've got a stretch! Positive drivers mean we are not currently desperate for a split....and a stretch will do us just fine for now!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, johncam said:

Disappointed lll

 

But it always seems to get pushed back 

The talk for quite some time as been 2nd week of January which is bang on schedule.. but so many are constantly looking to find flaws.

Happy new year John,and if you can bring us a positive post in the run up to the New Year I will definitely consider sending you a cheque in the post

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Come onnnnnn folks....the ens are coming onboard big time. IBERIAN HEIGHTS? ITS ONLY A FIGURE OF ONES IMAGINATION!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Some absolute peaches from the ecm 0z ens earlier today..the bar has been raised so let's see if we can take that bar a little higher.

Quick one on the met 2nd part of the update...as you were regarding colder than normal sypnotics and wintry hazards...but I've noticed they've removed the lower risk of milder Atlantic wet incursions from the update altogether now...so that scenario looks very unlikely

 

I think we are slowly but surely getting there..and keep in mind how quickly a cold pattern can become entrenched and very cold with time.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

21 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I still believe we are on for a good cold spell later in January, but those essembles are terrible! 

Look a the ones I posted a couple days ago, this is what we need to be seeing:

 

Terrible? The pattern is clearly getting colder and that's only running out to day 7. The gefs are far to inconsistent for my liking

Eye spy with my little eye....freezing fog...frosts becoming perhaps severe and ice and snow hazards on the increase with time.

And about bloody time we bucked the trend of terrible mild January's

@Polar Maritime they've updated the first part of the outlook

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Hi my lovelies.

Let's take a look at mogreps 6z runs.

Yes the trend is our friend.The downslide begins...colder air is making its presence felt...im liking this trend.

And after glancing at areas further East of us I would say our air could be coming from a more Nthly point. Some real drop down towards the SE

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

You know what amazes me here?

Unless every run shows pure cold from a det run some keeps stating how the cold is not coming...it never comes...it always backs away....we've been here before! Even with the met being bullish about our cold chances....we will still end up with they must be wrong or they will correct the text write up the next day. You can't expect every model run especially an op run to be showing a pot of gold when it runs numerous times a day. 

Does it really help anyone to keep losing one's heads or getting over dramatic when a run does not show what you want it too!

These are weather models that are trying to predict a chaotic Atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere...they are not fool proof they are prone to flaws like all technology is,and guess what the human race is even more prone to faults than any amount of computing power...it makes mistakes....we make mistakes...we are in a much better place than many are giving it credit for.

I can see from many ens the attempts to get those Heights further North. The position looks solid the strat looks weaker than normal...and it looks likely that further weakening will continue as we move further into the season.

Patience is a virtue...lack of it is a head banger.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

While we are waiting for our cold sypnotics to count down I would just like to give you a little date for your diary if the mods don't mind.

Brand new on channel 5 on New Year's day at 9pm. The Big Snow of 47. Looks  

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Hey up. OK so we lose that full on strat reversal but look further ahead and we again see an increasing risk of more pressure being placed on it...its possible we could keep with a weaker than normal strat for some time.

Some thoughts from Eric...and I think myself and a fair few other members on this Forum would echoe these thoughts!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Some hints here of a colder clustering next week...perhaps colder from the North..

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I love your optimism which is carrying me over sadly I've been beaten up by the past letdowns.

Anyway hopefully we will have some snow events to get technical about by mid month.

Are but Iberian Heights man you always used to be so positive. You've had some decent snow events over the last few years as well and much of this on the back of poor back ground drivers. There's some on here who have been snow starved since 2010...yet they remain optimistic every Winter. 

I need to put you under hypnosis kas.

Look into my eyes look into my eyes.....in a minute you will wake up and realise those iberian Heights are driving you mad and are infact no where near as bad as your making out.

3-2-1 your back in the room.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I don't know what you've been told!!!!

The 2nd half of January is gonna be mighty cold!!! 

I'm a bit concerned that if heights build in we could be getting warmer each day,as the strength of that sun builds hour by hour...Next thing you know it's barbies and carlsberg and a big dollop of spf...

Seriously surface cold comes into play here...clear skies at night and sharp frosts....any low cloud hanging on during the day and you easily end up with ice days.

Those ensembles for me are pointing towards a change in things to come,I'm not sure why the attitude in here becomes so negative on the back of every det run! Always await the ens and make sure you view numerous runs and data over a a few days before hanging yourself with your braces.

Things look like they're moving in the right direction in my eyes.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Plenty going on beyond day 10 with the ecm ens. Perhaps we won't see a full on pv split just yet,but with positive background drivers right now its probably not gonna be needed at this stage. Keep in mind if a favourable pattern emerges over the coming couple of weeks and a full on pv split were to occur it would play out 2 ways...either to reinforce the cold pattern or to completely squander it! So as long as the pv remains weak and displaced,with all the other forcing coming into play we would remain in a very encouraging position....this would also serve to further weaken the strat and perhaps bring about a fall a little further down the line.

All in all I'm very happy with the current direction of travel....on top of very favourable met updates,we really can't complain.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

21 minutes ago, Kasim Iberian Heights Awan said:

Iberian heights incoming.

Wow your really confusing me and many others on here. One minute your saying best run of the day,the next its iberian Heights incoming! Do you have a sponsorship deal where you get payed for every 50 times you mention them. Im quite bemused to how much you've changed your style of posting over the last 12 months.

Come on kasim...bring us something positive like the met update brought us.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Some crazy ensembles coming out folks..Now either I'm losing my eyesight and sanity which is a possibility....or we are now seeing the output reflect the changing sypnotics.

I officially announce the chase has begun..no not on ITV but here right now infront of our very eyes!

This is gonna be fun.

Come onnnnn  

Hey folks...Where's the iberian Heights gone..bye bye baby...bye bye 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Massive upgrade folks from the met...finally balanced now.. colder air could edge South bringing risk of significant snow on the boundary...then it seems beyond that the risk of winter hazards increase! Mjo forcing perhaps with the strat beginning to weaken which wouldn't necessarily be showing just yet.

But the met are seeing something and me likes. Certainly not looking like your typical January affair.