MATTWOLVES 3

January 2

NEWS ALERT! We are on the way..the journey as started a few miles back...we started slowly at 20mph on the traffic ladden side roads..we are now starting to cruise on the duel carriageway....before stepping on the gas into 6th gear as we approach the motorway! How's that for a weather apology

Fantastic ens from gfs 12z...and hey scotty boy the offer still stands

I'm gonna have to have a ly down folks..this ensemble posting really takes it out of ya

January 2

5 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Its a great chart from an imby perspective. I hope it comes to fruition! If it does then Kudos to the UKMO texted forecast which signposted this

That's a shame you feel like that. You are a very knowledgeable poster. I hope you reconsider and come back.

Kasim...you said the same last year..You do change your mind on these evolutions very frequently and perhaps that sets you up for a little flack..but I've spoken with you enough both privately and on here to know your a very knowledgeable guy. So please reconsider as you bring something different to the table that this forum lacks..its got everything else (granted) and your thoughts serve to offer a different train of thoughts.

Take a deep breath good man and get yaself back in the game

Sorry mate I quoted the wrong post..obviously this was aimed at Kas.

January 2

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, if these runs aren't great for cold and snow, i'd like to see some charts when said posters think they are good.

I wish I wouldn't have given the thread a heads up for last nights the big snow of 47. Folks setting the bar to high now

Calm yaselves...this time next year channel 5 may be doing a big snow of 2024!

As long as its not the big bartlet of 2024 I don't mind.

January 2

2 minutes ago, Purga said:

TBH - all the 'nerves' on here are crazy nonsense. The evolution is pretty much following the Exeter extended forecast narrative & that is about as bullish as one could wish for!

I can't get over the amount of posters who've been saying this looks good of a morning..I don't like the look of this come tea time..followed by I'm really liking the look of this come the pub run!

You've either like it or ya don't folks

Getting seriously itchy fingers now as I await the ens..got a feeling I'm gonna be burning out the keypad and a little repetitive finger strain coming up.

January 2

Seeing the theme here..ecm improves gfs gets worse..ukmo improves ecm gets worse...I swear down these companies are in competition with one another and deliberately go out on a limb to bring different solutions to one another just see who gets its correct.

Gem again like last night looks fab. No backtrack from the met and some very important ens coming up this evening. Get ready for a thread shredder when I post em..you think Kirkcaldy post was long...you ain't seen nothing yet

January 2

GFS says hey guys...can you please show me some respect as I'm the king of the NW Hemisphere! And I've got a wee treat for you all...merwahhhhh.

I'm all in now folks I'm counting down to a proper cold snap..the met will upgrade today the 12s will be even better,Wayne Rooney will one day learn how to coach,the grass ain't always greener on the other side...and one day I'm gonna command respect for my ridiculous posts

And I tell you what I've learned on here over many years? Always take note when certain members who do not like cold start saying the signs are good! And a few have done that today!

Come on gang let's take the roof off.

January 2

Get ya coat...you've pulled.

There's growing evidence we are going colder...I'll say too the missus when it lands you better put ya coat on tonight..oh great Matt are you taking me out? No love I'm turning off the heating..

January 2

I'm waiting for the boss Paul to message me and say....listen here matt...I ain't gonna be wanting to lock a new thread and be reopening a new one,everytime you go trigger happy with the ens

Seriously folks calm down the ens are solid and we are still in a very good place.

You will all be buzzing come tea time again.. and you know I'm right

I can't believe what I'm reading here..again people throwing away there toys over det runs only for them to be all excited again come the evening.. split personality folks! For the love of god please read catacols post back a few more times..cause he really has hit the nail on the head..and if we are all gonna fall out over weather models the world really is an even worser place than I thought.

January 1

Absolutely brilliant day folks..I just love the atmosphere and feel good factor on here when we are seeing some cracking output. Fantastic commentary from some very skilled and talented posters

And apparently 27 of 50 members go -10 and less on the ensembles.

My worry is we are not gonna need a bigger boat....but a bigger thread to cater for my 30+ screen shots

Moderators be warned...this could get ugly

January 1

Absolutely insane set of ens from ecm.

I think @Scott Ingham has stated recently if this don't come off he will run naked around his town..hang on mate I'm a coming with ya

January 1

I tell you what folks someone better call me an ambulance cause I'm a froffing and the mouth and breathing like a mountain climber on top of Everest!

Quite simply

..MAGNIFIQUE!

Fantastic support for a cold snap proper.

Happy New Year you lot and may the force be with you.

January 1

Just now, Allseasons-Si said:

Day ten EC mean

Just wait til I compile the ec ens si..this place gonna go full monty meltdown

January 1

How ya like them apples gang!

January 1

I feel this is gonna get more than enough support from the ens..I think we've been trending this way for a while with most of the obstacles being put there by GFS.

My god how the mood can change in a 24hr period.

January 1

Wowzers....no not the shopping app...but the GEM ensembles...taking the black and decker hedge trimmer and slicing that NH up...there a ruddy beaut Time to reel it in folks.

Come back iberian Heights I miss you

cross model agreement here we come..ecm gonna be a cracker..ensembles will really shed a light.

January 1

7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I’ve had to bite my tongue reading some of the knee jerk comments but I guess it’s part of this forum! All the ensembles always looked good for this period but too many follow operationals and operatonals from an awful GFS

Bite ya tongue Scott? I've literally lost mine from putting the troops back in order

While we wait for the 12z ecm and more importantly the ext ens...which I feel was superb this morning...the 6z mogreps have the majority of clusters around cold territory!

We are slowly moving in the right direction...cold surface high with temps falling away by the Weekend...infact met only got 3c for here on Saturday....what comes next is how the high reacts..does it sink? I don't think so..Does it stay stationery for several days? Most likely. Does it retrogress North or North West? Going on those ens this morning I would say there's a good chance. And finally a rather subdued looking Atlantic for some time. Any inroads from that direction would certainly bring quite a high risk of wintry precipitation with time.

In a nutshell lots too keep an eye on.

January 1

OK folks so it's New Year's day..but I've just been for an interview at my local weather station...my hopes were low as there was 2 others with far more qualifications than me.

1st one goes in with his portfolio of zonal wstly charts...he comes out looking rather grim.

2nd one goes in with his portfolio of iberian Heights charts...he comes out looking angry.

And finally I go in with my ecm Hemisphere splitting charts...and I say will I hear from you in a couple of days on whether I've got the job? No need matty boy..your hired...

Beauties....welcome to the coldies camp.

January 1

Plenty of ensembles going cold this morning.

The ecm control says I'm smelling the pattern change...here it comes boys....you deserve it...your times a coming

December 31, 2023

Someone just rang the BBC weather studio and said its looking like a dry January! But for many on here that's simply just gonna mean staying of the drink for a few weeks..

I kid you not netweather crew the 12z ens from ecm are better than the 0z ones and some of the best I've seen...Some fantastic sypnotics around the Northerly latitudes.

Those of you calling this a bust largely based on the gfs need to view some of these ens as there's alot going on. I'm thinking cold upgrades are incoming and the met are all over this like a cheap suit.

2023 goes out like a lion with wind and rain...it comes in like a lion with wind and rain mid week..it then goes chilled out with frosts and light winds....and it finishes like a bloody crackpot with wintry hazards!

2024 is coming and it's going to be bringing some exciting weather....stay tuned folks.

The 2024 chase is now beginning..rejoice with me...call my helpline 088880088889999988 if your getting a little stressed and gfs disorientated...my team are on hand 24/7 to put you straight and ease the pressure.

Lol. My dad always said I was dropped on my head as a baby...love ya dad RIP.

December 31, 2023

Wow guys...what was written on the wall...I must have been out or somebody as graffitied over it.

Roll on Summer? Well give it till mid June with no heatwave in sight and I just no many will be saying...its over...roll on winter

Definitely colder 12z mogreps with a better cluster of sub -5 uppers.

December 31, 2023

17 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I'm doubtful personally.

You told me the other day your being more positive with your posts from now on..now your right back to expecting the worse...and largely based on previous failures!

Cold and frosty ecm...the PV looks stretched...and retrogression is possible moving forward...

I would just like to say from all of us Happy New Year met office...we talk about you that much your ears must be burning from it...some of us hound you and bring you down...and your probably annoyed when you read some of these posts.

I'm sure a few of us could do a gr8 job with those monthly updates if you give us a go.

Update 1 at 12 noon.. Lots of Blocking on offer with winds from a NETLY sector..frosts becoming more severe with wintry hazards increasing.

Update 2 at 6pm...oh dear...forget the blocking its a full on zonal pattern for the next month at least.

Update 3 and final update at 9pm.

Oh good god massive iberian High pushing all the cold into the North Pole...forget the next 3 months...game over

Bit of banter to end a rather strange 2023. May 2024 fill your hearts and your minds with so much joy.

A toast yo all of you...gr8 input an knowledge from many of you guys and gals throughout the year.

And some gr8 work from the moderators for allowing the forum to run smoothly and fairly.

In the shorter term...at least we are finally saying goodbye to endless wind and rain to be replaced with High pressure and the gradual build of surface cold..in time things may well go on to improve further.

December 31, 2023

Ecm better than GFS...but look towards the Low Heights SW of Greenland at 168hrs..the 0z was making far less of a nuisance of it..

And please refrain from ridiculous one liners of GAME OVER!

There's nothing game over about 192hr...end of!

December 31, 2023

8 minutes ago, MJB said:

This ( 11 DAYS AWAY ) Doesn't look anything like the MET update

So either there has been a hugely different signal today and MET are 24 hours behind or GFS is just throwing something into the mix for discussion.

Or maybe us lot are constantly 24hrs ahead ....you know what I'm saying

Ps..im waiting for E17 boy to say our search for a winter wonderland continues.. then we will know its curtains..

Ohh you've proven me wrong @E17boy

December 31, 2023

It amazes me how some will say they new it was going wrong a while back before it's actually landed and gone wrong in the first place! I mean if you keep changing your stance and predicting several different options..its sods law one of them will be correct!

Personally I think GFS shouldn't be running 4 times a month let alone a day but the ens are showing quite a lot of support to progress those Heights further North. You really do need to reserve judgment until all the ensembles have run. By all means comment on the det runs as they come out but try not to make a complete call on the outcome on that det run alone.

I've seen nothing too change my mind on the overall pattern..while others do a worzel gummidge and keep on changing heads,mine remains firmly fixed..

December 31, 2023

I needed to jump out of semi retirement for this post..hope the mods don't mind.

When I joined this forum nearly 5 years ago I was sceptical of back ground drivers as I didn't really understand them..so I just played ignorant to it all....but I never disrespected any of the posters who shared this knowledge! As the years have rolled by the likes of Tamara..catacol...met4cast...chio..matt H.. eagle eye...(I could go on with this list as there's more of you) have completely changed my attitude to such a wonderful science,and the amount of work that goes into this subject with there posts is unreal! Do keep in mind many of the above are not professional! Yes you would think they were...they are that good at it,they simply have a gr8 passion for the subject and spend a hell of a lot of time studying,and then they pass this information on to us giving us the chance to learn something new!

I for one know for a fact some of them in the past have come close to stopping posting due to non stop criticism...and I've actually talked one of them out of it privately on more than one occasion!

Where do you think the Met get there long range forecasts from! A clairvoyant!! The tea leafs! It's all based on drivers around the globe and much of it is inputted into those monthly text updates.. yet when they're talking up cold and snow,everyone loves em! When they get it wrong they're useless! Get my point here!

Let's all dismiss those drivers and base our forecasts on 4 gfs runs a day! One run shows Greenland blocking...the next a bartlett high! Exactly!!! Its not quite that simple.

So I say to all of those that spend so much time bringing us these amazing insights with the teleconnections to please keep at it...most of us on this Forum want to keep learning from it.

Keep the peace folks...no point in dismissing something you either don't understand,or are simply not willing to try and understand.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4989205

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Posts posted by MATTWOLVES 3