[Model discussion highlights]

I take it I've missed some frustrations in here today. A 5 day cold spell is a 5 day cold spell,some areas up North will see lots of snow while many others won't see a flake. That's the nature of the beast...some parts of the south early in the week got snow! Guess what? I didn't? The lake district got pummeled last month...I got nothing! So what! I love the weather and I love to analyse it and try and improve on it. Nobody on here deserves criticism over the fact that this cold snap that was hinted at by several of the teleconnections experts didn't deliver snow to there area..its doesn't quite work like that folks. Like all things in lige there are winners and lovers!

So I hope the likes of Tams doesn't refrain from posting for the rest of the Winter. The met got it wrong on the initial thoughts for the mid week snow...they also pointed out a few days back how the cold could hold with further areas of rain meeting the cold boundaries bringing snow! So that's more unlikely....If they get it wrong then us lot are gonna get it wrong a hell of a lot more. But I do actually feel that some snow is possible during the transition back to mild next weekend.

The bigger picture looks good...mjo.soon to be getting the kick into higher amplitudes to help promote blocking by months end. February also holds promise and again the met seem more confident for cold. In the shorter term while we encounter this Arctic airmass then snowfall could crop up in numerous locations...ie keep a keep close on developments around the Irish sea and also the North Sea. The situation around the Lakes how significant snowfall can manifest very quickly and an Amber warning can appear on the day for areas not expecting to see any snow.

Where do we go next? Well we ride out the next mild spell and we just sit back and wait for the reinforcements to come along..next time could be far more favourable..unfortunately even with -20 uppers in place some of you Will still call it a failure if its not snowing over you rooftop. So let's get ready to go again and rejoice.. regardless of the outcome...it ain't the end of the world is it!!

Ec regimes I feel show that blocking risk as we move into the new month..the strat very close to a reversal in the next few days but its been a very strange performance from that pv so far this Winter..and the zonal winds and other strat tools have struggled to actually work out what's coming next. So i advice not to be downhearted over poor signals rearing there heads in that department...its a changing daily.

Next chase folks...onwards and upwards  

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5012289

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I take it I've missed some frustrations in here today. A 5 day cold spell is a 5 day cold spell,some areas up North will see lots of snow while many others won't see a flake. That's the nature of the beast...some parts of the south early in the week got snow! Guess what? I didn't? The lake district got pummeled last month...I got nothing! So what! I love the weather and I love to analyse it and try and improve on it. Nobody on here deserves criticism over the fact that this cold snap that was hinted at by several of the teleconnections experts didn't deliver snow to there area..its doesn't quite work like that folks. Like all things in lige there are winners and lovers!

So I hope the likes of Tams doesn't refrain from posting for the rest of the Winter. The met got it wrong on the initial thoughts for the mid week snow...they also pointed out a few days back how the cold could hold with further areas of rain meeting the cold boundaries bringing snow! So that's more unlikely....If they get it wrong then us lot are gonna get it wrong a hell of a lot more. But I do actually feel that some snow is possible during the transition back to mild next weekend.

The bigger picture looks good...mjo.soon to be getting the kick into higher amplitudes to help promote blocking by months end. February also holds promise and again the met seem more confident for cold. In the shorter term while we encounter this Arctic airmass then snowfall could crop up in numerous locations...ie keep a keep close on developments around the Irish sea and also the North Sea. The situation around the Lakes how significant snowfall can manifest very quickly and an Amber warning can appear on the day for areas not expecting to see any snow.

Where do we go next? Well we ride out the next mild spell and we just sit back and wait for the reinforcements to come along..next time could be far more favourable..unfortunately even with -20 uppers in place some of you Will still call it a failure if its not snowing over you rooftop. So let's get ready to go again and rejoice.. regardless of the outcome...it ain't the end of the world is it!!

Ec regimes I feel show that blocking risk as we move into the new month..the strat very close to a reversal in the next few days but its been a very strange performance from that pv so far this Winter..and the zonal winds and other strat tools have struggled to actually work out what's coming next. So i advice not to be downhearted over poor signals rearing there heads in that department...its a changing daily.

Next chase folks...onwards and upwards  

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Checking the mslp stamps shows it’s just cool zonal on some runs Matt 

Yeh thought it might be Nick..fortunately it's only out to day 8..perhaps its just that little further on when the tide turns. Will be hoping for some positives from you regarding the eps and strat in the near future..hopefully Nick!!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Again subtle hints of a few runs trending colder again on the mogreps...come on folks work with me here 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Perhaps we could start to see some more positive output come end of next week folks! Plenty to keep us on our toes,and much better than some previous winters of the past.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

The noise is still there in the 12z ens for something colder. Again not convinced this milder spell has guts.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

This ain't a bad 144hr by UKMO..pv not rampant and some decent Ural Heights in there for good measure..I've a feeling there's more miles to run in this saga just yet!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

18 minutes ago, AO- said:

I like your optimism, but having a glance at the synoptics I am not really convinced about the setup of the colder options. Still, the cold snap will first have to be terminated before we have any idea on what will happen after the 22nd of January. I hope the zonal intermezzo will be a short one. At this moment the cold is swept away across the whole European continent in FI.  

Not just optimism mate..just a look at mets longer range output shows where we maybe heading late January..so I wouldn't be suprised to see longer range ens hinting at this possibility in the next few days.

Shoot me down if I'm wrong but I feel the models are overplaying that super strong pv forming around the NW later next week. Yes it may turn milder for a time,but I feel the wheels won't be falling off. Many look at those charts and go into panic mode and assume mild.will be locked in for weeks. Many a cold snap as come hot on the heels of such a horrid looking NH profile NWP currently paints.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Do I detect a little hint from the 6z to increase those colder members again later! Just a hint! This is far from a done deal..yes it may turn milder..but I'm not convinced it will be for any length of time.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

37 minutes ago, Jono E said:

Dan Hutchings, Stateside, is suggesting that we are likely to see weeks of very unsettled and mild weather in the UK. This is due partly to the cold artic plunge into the USA and the positioning of the UK in a Geographical context. He does hint at potential Greenland blocking in March associated with an uptick in the MJO. 

None of the knowledgeable folks I've spoken to have backed up this belief at all..Many think blocking looks a good call for February.

Ask yaself this folks!

1. Would you rather believe the big boys and girls on here?

2. Would you rather believe the big boys at one of the words best weather organisations..the met.

Or 3...none of the above and believe Don Hutchings..the stevenage football coach!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Hope mods don't mind but would just like to share this with you from another knowledgeable guy..Good signs moving forward.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Blocking regimes gain traction tonight

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Hey folks just gone through 50 members of ecm snow charts and some do actually go with a snowy breakdown..long way off but it remains a possibility for sure.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

While some of you get ready with the obituaries I will point out next week is just the beginning of what's to come! Some places will see snow..some places will see snow when there's nothing showing right now! Those who are located in the worse areas will be the ones who lose there cool,say they've had enough..will emigrate abroad or tell us next year they're definitely going to Norway for a break...hang on a sec we've already had that saga this winter

What comes next weekend and beyond is not finalised..those who think it is are kidding themselves. Blocking wil be back.

Mogreps 12z early look still some support to keep it colder out to day 8...

Don't be having nightmares folks..get ready for some little suprises in the days ahead.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

You know something guys and gals I know some are sick of this long drawn out chase and especially if it fails to deliver snow in your areas..its been that much of a big thing...we even had a Scott Ingham day on when it lands.. but for me and I'm sure some will be getting sick of my long drawn out chases god forbid! But I'm growing in confidence that end of month into February could be much more potent and successful than the one we are heading into.

Mjo on the rise again and further warming of an already weakened pv I feel could hit us the next time at the same time! For the met to favour blocking and NE/E winds shows we are getting not a lot of oomph from the zonal train.. displaced jet and solid El Nino backing coupled with EQBO are going to be strengthening to colder sypnotics option in my opinion!

Next week good suprise snowfalls will crop up at short notice...BUT..dont be to downhearted if you miss out as I strongly feel this is merely just the first bite of a very big cherry..and guess what? This cherry is getting seriously ripe for the plucking..before sooner or later simply falling off the tree and exploding!

A little fruit terminology for ya there folks  

In the short term do have a gr8 weekend be lamppost ready next week.

Also I've got my Dad's ashes back today where he Will reside upon the mantle piece for as long as I live...hey dad love ya always and I know you would want snow as much as anybody...have a word with the big boss in the sky and see what you can do for us.

Much love and respect as always peeps.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Mogreps still not finished the run..but word on the grapevine is after a milder interlude the chances are we go colder with blocking and winds more likely to be from the N/NE/E the form horse.

Now was it my inside informant who told me this....mmmmmm

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

6z mogreps look pretty solid out till next Saturday..further North even better.

And caution to those who are worried by poor snow graphs..The 12inch of snow that fell around Lake District was showing nothing a day or 2 earlier!

Things will crop up.

Will update when they've run folks 

Ps I think mogreps has had a breakdown it can't cope with it anymore..Still stuck at day 6

[Moans, ramps and banter]

35 minutes ago, Bristawl Si said:

Actually, most weather apps tap into latest model output, but, YES, are prob one time output behind, which in great scheme of things aint much. Conclusion they're not that far out, timewise, maybe one run in arrears.

And, as most of the sane population dont analyse every computer weather model output run, whilst rocking on their beds, app updates are actually 'good enough' for vast maj of normal peeps.

Lol seriously...I have people say to me hey matt! In 7 days time it's gonna be 28c with 8 hrs of sunshine and a 5mph SETLY wind. Then in winter...I've just heard there's gonna be 5 hours of steady snowfall and a temp of 0c 10 days from now!

And I'm like...whatttttttt!!!!!!

And yep you guessed it people relying on weather apps! Then when it goes all wrong they're complaining  nobody can forecast the weather anymore!

And you tell me apps are a good thing? I'd rather Start rocking in my chair deliriously from model fatigue then have to put up with that mate  

[Moans, ramps and banter]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

The models point to a cold week but bbc weather app forecasts don’t reflect this. 5C in Essex next week is only 1C below average.

Some on here were talking about ice days earlier.

It’s quite  amazing that when the models pick up a mild signal, it’s rarely wrong!

Mate bbc apps would have 5c if it was minus 5...the forecast for the week ahead is cold with snow risks..im bemused as to why so many bother looking at weather Apps. It tells you nothing of the bigger picture and was only designed for folks who are to dim or couldn't be assed to read the weather charts

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Slight little uptick here on those mean winds perhaps...I detect a wee dip!

@bluearmy Thanks for your thoughts there Nick

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Lets be honest Zonal flow goes after the near reversal or did it reverse at 10pha?

Thats yesterday's zonal chart.. and let's be honest it's been about as useful as a 1 legged bloke at a butt kicking contest.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Mogreps 12z still support the cold with the majority looking solid.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Remember though, the eps are dumping a fat PV over Greenland in the extended as well.

I'm suprised with how weak that pv is currently that they favour a strong rampant pv to develop around Greenland. The pv has been attacked from the bottom up this time around and things seem different..has Mike stated its been out of kilter since the Canadian warming.. also worth considering that the met seem to think the pv will remain weak and how backloaded EL Nino frequently favours a weak pv and a stly tracking jetstream and being more prone to blocks further North..not convinced of that solution one bit at the moment.

[Model discussion highlights]

It's a strange Winter this year as even Doc Amy is a bit stumped..PV acting very odd this time around..wouldn't at all be suprised to see it fall before we are done.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5007128

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

That’s very interesting she said that about it being pulled apart from below, Matt, because I have noticed that the shown splits have seemed to be from the trop upwards, rather than top down, and said as much on here. 

Unchartered territory perhaps Mike? Perhaps the pv could fall in a way that its not usually accustomed too!