MATTWOLVES 3

January 4

28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 week 2 ..

You literally couldn't paint a more beautiful picture..

Well the only pictures I could think of more amazing would be these ones

Oh and another heads up for the forum.

Wild Scandinavia bbc 2 tonight at 11.15..about the most Northern extremes of the country and how the animals deal with the long polar nights.. looks a stunning programme.

Maybe watch it and get a sense of what could be coming to our shores..

Brilliant Commentary folks..this as been one of my best and favourite chases since I joined the forum and the last few days in here have helped me with all the stress I've been under..so thanks folks.

Now let's reel it in.

January 4

This is bloody ridiculous now...more strat weakening

January 4

Mike will.do a better job of these clusters but the signal for Blocking is sublime..

@Mike Poole thanks Mike didn't realise you had already done them.

January 4

Some of you are looking for perfection on every run and perfection ain't possible..close to it yes. Even an Olympic pole volter wouldn't clear the bar some of you have raised.

Check the mean out its a cracker.

January 4

Good God...its been my dad's funeral today..just a small service for close family as he didn't want a big fuss! This may seen insensitive me posting weather charts at such a time..but I will tell you this folks.. My Dad would have been just as excited as many of us and especially at the prospect of snow. Thanks Dad continue to smile down on me..and thanks for so many well wishes over the last couple of weeks.

GEM is well...its a diamond

January 4

Icon is gagging for it

Nice little tweet from Judah here also. Slowly but surely I feel we are heading there..we cant be expecting upgrades every run,the idea being the output stays solid.

January 4

What I'm loving about the ecm extended ens is obviously that state of the Northern Hemisphere is primed and the pv looks like its been dealt several blows and given up the ghost...but the absence of those iberian Heights.. no real forcing from that direction to shift the pattern North.

Now if we at some stage tap into a NETLY feed what awaits us would be totally dribbling behaviour Amazon would be run off there feets with orders for bibs.

The possibilities are endless here!

And folks we can't keep looking at past failures to suggest it will go wrong again this time! Sooner or later these things come together and play out.

January 4

Seriously folks..the output reminds me so much of a 2010 type event.. blocking appearing everywhere and frigid cold just across the North Sea. Gfs 6z goes crazy with that blocking also ecm for good measure. We are now seeing the full force of those background drivers from a couple of weeks back.

Worth considering also is that we now have a minor warming going on but its also significant! Keep in mind as drivers reduce this pattern this current warming of the strat could increase it...Around 10 plus days ahead and yet again it wouldn't be a suprise to see either the blocking being reintroduced or the current blocking if still in place...getting stronger.

Either way this a bloody good place to be in.

And remind yourselves this...its not November or March....but January and early January at that

@Kasim Awan only you could feel mixed about this output..im mixed also..all mixed up with delight

January 3

18z ens looking sweet. The cold theme continues...solid mean also

Woooohhhhhh...come on dance with me..blackhole anomolies yet again. Strong support growing stronger.

January 3

Someone just said to me on X I see your posts on here are just as bad as those on netweather like me dad used to say...son...haters gonna hate! You can please some...some of the time..but never all...all of the time.

Ensemble heaven..folks..its literally everyone of them..its off the scale it really is.

January 3

Yeh Mike if I recall my first taste of proper winter was as a 7 year old in the 81/82 big freeze..there was never really any talk of background drivers then like we discuss now. A weather presenter would simply say high pressure is building over scandy which in turn will be dragging very cold air in from siberia..and I recall some real bruiser of heights around the scandy region back then. Countryfile forecast is about all we had to go on.(granted it was good as they were all met office trained and gr8 presenters) but like you say there was no way of us talking up or down the situation on social media like these days..we simply waited for it to come off,where as these days we simply wait for it to go wrong.

Nearly 8 years old and waist deep in snow is when I got the buzz for it..I started drawing weather charts using an old atlas map,and putting all the symbols and isobars on...absolutely loved it...even run up a 200 phone bill as a 10 year old phoning around the UK for updates and weekly forecasts for different areas.. parents nearly killed me

And at long last we are seeing some sublime output and I kinda have that 80s feeling all over again. Sorry for going off on one mods I'm having a nostalgic feeling looking back on those days..

Let's reel this in folks...and thanks for the commentary...its a complete blast.

January 3

Looks like a blocking scenario is gaining traction for quite some time.

Is it just me or are others scratching there heads at these kind of sypnotics at this time of the year! It feels like the 80s since we last witnessed this kind of set up in January.

January 3

Little bit of support for the strat taking another hit around mid month...one to watch folks.

January 3

Fantastic ecm run...West based! East based who cares as long as it ain't South based

Gfs anomalies say welcome to the blackhole of calcutta

January 3

If this backtracks now I'm gonna need one hell of a lot of time to recover.

Sublime ensembles rolling.

The touch paper has been lit.

The crowd are on the pitch they think it's all over...it is for the zonal mild and iberian Heights crew.

January 3

Control is ona roll..this is getting ever so slowly very tasty.

January 3

Ya getting tired or do you want some more! Please sir we want more.

Very positive met update also.

January 3

Better icon run than this morning with some little hints of movement further NE from those Heights..Estly still in the mix and some cold uppers further South.

I now feel the met are having trouble working this all out! Ohh hang on a sec they've just emailed me

January 3

1 minute ago, Liam J said:

Sorry but this is incorrect…. the forecast to 16th January mentions cold & settled conditions with frosts becoming widespread & severe in time, increased chance of sleet & snow in any unsettled spells later on. Frost, ice & freezing fog all feature.

The next period 17th Jan onwards says an increased chance of colder than average conditions with snow & ice….

Some wintry looking charts from the 6z GFS going into next week. Persistent Hard frosts, cold days on the way with power & heating demand rocketing up.

A lot of water lying around from the very wet weather of late. Be plenty of ice rinks about

That's correct Liam from the UK met but bricriu is perhaps stating met Ireland.. But yeh N Ireland would come under the UK met office.

January 3

Some cracking gem ensembles this morning. Not the worse place to be in on January the 3rd I say.

January 3

5 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Tbf Mike, not long ago we were looking at Icelandic HP this coming weekend…solid means too for this scenario. Now we’re looking at a UK HP.

There’s absolutely no evidence that the same won’t happen for the next D10 chase.

Even with solid background drivers we’re really struggling.

We see this scenario play out year after year these days and people say they won’t be fooled next time and yet they always are.

Mmm...a couple of weeks back when people were losing there heads I remember you coming on to say you can't work out why everyone is so downbeat when the output is only heading one way! Namely cold and solid!

You say ain't people getting fed up of a 10 day chase! Well I would imagine they're getting more fed up off hearing it looks good one minute,and know good the next! Or there's a 50%% chance of this then a 30% then a 40% then a 35% chance of one model siding with the other in which kasim keeps stating! How on gods earth you can work out what percentage of models will diverge with others beggers belief.

Once again solid ens and they've been solid for days!

Hey folks if you wanna keep losing your heads each morning carry on..the NHS will welcome the extra prescription charges.

January 3

Gonna make a call here and I've thought it now for the past week,so I'm not gonna change my mind on this.

We are counting down to a cold snap and one that with time could become quite severe in duration and Intensity. I'm actually seeing similarities with 2010 and I don't see why this couldn't have even more legs than that 1 month freeze. All of December was frozen but the new year brought an abrupt end to that severe cold spell!

What I'm seeing with the NH right now is a clear signal of what's gonna be thrown at us...we had a Canadian warming some time back which though didn't split the PV,it did serve to knock it out of kilter and move it around shall we say. A secondary warming which we are seeing now will also serve to keep that strat very weak and perhaps removed from its natural home. So right now a full on split is not actually required,but I'm also confident of yet another hit on that pv towards months end which I think is hinted at by tonight's zonal winds...and in all fairness the zonal winds do look weak throughout....couple this with EL Nino conditions and the 2nd half of winter looks more primed for winter sypnotics..Blocking towards the NW/N and a more stly tracking jetstream.

So tomorrow when you wake to view the early morning runs do not be downhearted if the ops don't look convincing...again await the ensembles which carry far more weight and accuracy and reliability....those ensembles have been solid for some time now,and it would have to be some backtrack for this to go all wrong now.

Thanks for listening if your still up...my next seminar will probably be in 12 months time..but I'm available for after dinner speeches if your really interested

You know what's coming next folks?? Brace yourself....der der der der der der der!!!

January 2

Boom boom boom let me hear say wayo...wayo! I say boom boom boom the cold is coming....coming...

Once again simply sterling. Me and the dog have loved this roll out...never mind the op, the ens are amazing.

Breath easily you lot....

Seriously folks I need an horlix and an early night...I think me eyes are going as well..was a real struggle seeing the full graphics on those ens.. First ya hair goes then ya eyes...then ya bloody faculties...loved every minute of it though! Always a pleasure though.

January 2

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Compared to what it was showing a couple of days ago it's awful.

We had minus 8 to minus 10 super air over the UK now at best its half that now at around minus. 5

Doubt it's crrect though, probably one of the mildest runs from the pack after day 5-6 like it is nearly every run!

Go check the ens mate then tell me it's far better! The op maybe not as good but the ens have been superb! There's more to weather than just viewing det runs you know.

January 2

20 minutes ago, Howie said:

168 looks horrid sorry. I'm checking out...

Checking out? Hang on a sec young man you can't be checking out without paying your bill!

Ok please not again folks...every op run a dozen times a day and you think that must be the completed solution!

Firstly I think ECM is ending OK.. and 2ndly and its a big one...this is all but 1 run of 50 members...thats a large envelope.

I look forward to raising a smile in a couple of hours when they have run.

And yep...I can live with the ending...large part of the PV resides over the euro/siberian side.

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Posts posted by MATTWOLVES 3