MATTWOLVES 3

January 11

It's a strange Winter this year as even Doc Amy is a bit stumped..PV acting very odd this time around..wouldn't at all be suprised to see it fall before we are done.

January 11

Its officially Mattwolves day @AdrianHull the met do indeed signal a milder push by next weekend

But there's scope for significant falls of snow during the run up to it! And as always and like Tams points put there's alot going on and this may only be a minor blip with drivers looking good again later this month.

To sum up I reckon lots of exciting times in the days ahead.

Now let me just buy my informant a beer

January 11

I wished I wouldn't have said anything about the met insider information now

Let's be honest here if it's solid there may be a little alteration too the 1st part of the update.. but I very much doubt the 2nd part would be altered at all! Not unless the likes of Glosea have had a massive climbdown overnight.

And keep in mind how often have we had people in the past say they've got a friend at Dominoes who knows a council figure for the gritting service, and they've been told to stock up big time on grit this year

And mogreps does look cold out till next weekend and let's be honest so much is subject to change at this range as we've seen with the models over the last several days!

But I tell you what if this bloke is lying he's being unfollowed

@Tamara brilliant as ever and many thanks..I just don't know what I'd do without you

January 11

Good news folks!

Much stronger cold support on mogreps 6z

January 11

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Really happy with the 00z data...

Certainly looks cold / v cold for many sun to Fri @MATTWOLVES 3has induced worries talking of Exeter breakdown by end of next week but TBH I think sun - thurs/ Fri is a decent 4 /5 day spell for us in a warming world..

I feel it could be short lived though and not even certain at a week out. I'm not convinced even Exeter have fully decided just yet mate...but I feel sometimes the dice fall out of place when we get into a positive situation,but the drivers still look solid for February to deliver...petty the strat didn't full on split could have locked us into a long cold spell this time around.Was very encouraged by Tams update yesterday as well and I feel we remain in the game for the next several weeks.

I'm sure you will agree here that we don't want to be seeing to much cold plunging down that Eastern seaboard as well!

Stay positive mate always good to read your posts.

January 11

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I know I can look them up but I enjoy you posting these. can I ask you include somewhere like Plymouth and Aberdeen please? TIA don’t worry about Bournemouth I look at them hourly.

Yeh cause I can mate..here you go

January 11

Still alot of cold support folks.

January 11

Just now, Jason M said:

Well, looking through the GEFS and just taking a snapshot of where each member is at 192 hours, good luck to anyone who thinks they can make a forecast with any confidence

Most are cold, but beyond that chaos reigns.

Thanks Jason for the reasoned thinking and not of the 1 upmonship and hahah I was right you were wrong attitude with your summary.

January 11

Icon 6z looks more promising all be it only out to day 5..im scratching my head as to the direction of travel tbh. It appears the models continue to struggle here and I'm not sure any outcome today will set the tone for next week.

Just to mention I've just been tweeted by someone claiming he as a good friend at the met and they are gonna be calling milder air talking over later next week! So that would be a climbdown! Not sure of his credentials but the 3pm update could be telling.

Sorry chart attached is the gfs.

January 10

Err sorry guys but I'm getting a bit of a feeling of I know more than you mentality on here at times. There are professional forecasters with less ego,yet some amateurs who think they have all the answers all the time! But no you don't. I kind of get the impression from some who are far South and south east that they're willing that Low to go South cause they know farewell there chances of snow from it are reduced! If it looked nailed on for snow in these areas they would be willing it further North!

The met also put this possibility of disruption around central areas,and they are the met! Yes it will change,but there's no guarantees whatsoever that it will miss all together...unless you've got a crystal ball you simply don't know!

January 10

Cracking icon folks regarding colder uppers..and just this little tweet from Jon Hammond..remember the volatility before throwing your keypad through the window. Next week could possibly bring the most excitement for cold and snow during January that we've seen for a long time.

Option 1..the low tracks south and misses us altogether so most of us stay cold with little features appearing in the flow.

Option 2...the low pushes through to the North very quickly and snow turns to rain bringing milder conditions from the South...but with the scope for colder conditions to filter back again.

Option 3..frontal system grind to a halt like a 2017 event and gives some a huge dumping. Other fronts attempt to shift the cold bringing more disruptive snow.

Option 4..The pv remains very weak and the next surge of AAM and mjo coupled with late Nino conditions make all of this repeat yet again through February.

Option 5..The ec46 is chucking wildly fluctuating output every 24hrs so can be ignored especially as the better model Glosea goes all out blocked in February!

Option 6...Ignore all of the above as I may be talking out of my backside and not for the first time I hear you think .

Seriously folks enjoy this ride...it may get bumpy at times but we will still reach the Hilton Hotel in the end.

January 10

Tbh here that ecm run has stumped me..from a vortex shred into pieces to an increase in iberian Heights by day 10..it seemed to lose its way and didn't really have a clue early in the run.

Mogreps 12z still keep the majority of runs colder..this situation will look different yet again come the morning runs..Still plenty to be positive about though

January 10

Blocked February anyone! Nice signal to say the least and does fit in with El Nino EQBO and weak strat..long overdue a wintry February folks.

January 10

1 hour ago, Wilko999 said:

Cherry picking season again. Every time it's not favourable it's discounted. same old same old in here then.

Your missing the point mate..its not cherry picking,me and a few others are stating that GFS as been largely on its own,that's not to say its completely wrong either. Ecm ukmo mogreps for instance all seem to go against it! It appears the met go against it as well,so do we accuse them of cherry picking cause that model is not showing the outcome they think is most likely!

The tweets from Amy Butler also points out how she sees Greenland blocking to gain some traction next week due to the recent warming! Again gfs seems to go against this also! And trust me she's a dam good scientist. It also points out how the strat is potentially coming under further rounds of warming looking ahead...so models will again struggle until this is resolved,yet it appears gfs is struggling more than others.

In all honesty I can understand why @Scott Inghamloses his rag at times because some can't see the woods for the trees. Its getting to the point that if 6 models all went cold,yet just one gfs went against it some would still say im not liking this trend one bit...its all going wrong..we can never get a cold spell in the uk anymore..next year im going on holidays to Finland...the list goes on.

Op runs are but one run amongst 30 members on gfs,and 1 of 50 on the ecm model. Yet some call the outlook on that one run before even viewing all the other data! Im not having a dig at the masses on here,cause the best posters know this and will want to view all the data over numerous runs and over several days before making a call or changing there minds. So I would call cherry picking a situation when 90% of the data goes one way with only that small cluster of 10% showing something more favourable being the one that gets pointed out for favouritism...not the other way around.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5004361

January 10

1 hour ago, Wilko999 said:

Cherry picking season again. Every time it's not favourable it's discounted. same old same old in here then.

Your missing the point mate..its not cherry picking,me and a few others are stating that GFS as been largely on its own,that's not to say its completely wrong either. Ecm ukmo mogreps for instance all seem to go against it! It appears the met go against it as well,so do we accuse them of cherry picking cause that model is not showing the outcome they think is most likely!

The tweets from Amy Butler also points out how she sees Greenland blocking to gain some traction next week due to the recent warming! Again gfs seems to go against this also! And trust me she's a dam good scientist. It also points out how the strat is potentially coming under further rounds of warming looking ahead...so models will again struggle until this is resolved,yet it appears gfs is struggling more than others.

In all honesty I can understand why @Scott Inghamloses his rag at times because some can't see the woods for the trees. Its getting to the point that if 6 models all went cold,yet just one gfs went against it some would still say im not liking this trend one bit...its all going wrong..we can never get a cold spell in the uk anymore..next year im going on holidays to Finland...the list goes on.

Op runs are but one run amongst 30 members on gfs,and 1 of 50 on the ecm model. Yet some call the outlook on that one run before even viewing all the other data! Im not having a dig at the masses on here,cause the best posters know this and will want to view all the data over numerous runs and over several days before making a call or changing there minds. So I would call cherry picking a situation when 90% of the data goes one way with only that small cluster of 10% showing something more favourable being the one that gets pointed out for favouritism...not the other way around.

January 9

There's no way that gfs is gonna out do mogreps ukmo and ecm..sorry its not happening..and I'm beginning to wonder now if this model even deserves air time.

We have Dr Amy Butler talking about enhanced Greenland blocking next week due to the recent warming yet gfs is clearly not seeing this..infact there's alot going on with the strat and I wouldn't be suprised to see it fall.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5004195

January 9

There's no way that gfs is gonna out do mogreps ukmo and ecm..sorry its not happening..and I'm beginning to wonder now if this model even deserves air time.

We have Dr Amy Butler talking about enhanced Greenland blocking next week due to the recent warming yet gfs is clearly not seeing this..infact there's alot going on with the strat and I wouldn't be suprised to see it fall.

January 9

Firstly the mogreps 6z ens look cold with many runs keeping us cold..the next step is we get cold locked in from a nthly and we then undercut these systems and disrupt them.

Oh and Exeter now say they are keeping an eye on the potential for disruptive snowfall next week

Ohhh yehhhh

January 9

2 minutes ago, Buzz said:

Do as I have done - add all of the problematic posters to your ignore list. It'll take a while but it's well worth it - I now mainly only see those posts which are actually useful. Reading this thread is now a pleasure, not a chore.

In addition to that there is of course the very useful Highlights thread, but that does rely on others actually marking posts from here as Insightful and not abusing the feature.

I can't see the point tbh mate..its only valid if you log in..you can still read everyone's posts when not logged in. And tbh it's good to hear those that lose there heads every second of the day as it brightens up my rather sad life

January 9

25 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

If the ECM / UKMO / Met Office were all looking poor, but the GFS was showing nirvana, many on here would happily dismiss the GFS. So why wont you do the same when it's the other way around?

I'm amazed tbh..over the years how many times have we heard that an ecm ukmo blend beats everything hands down! The gfs picks up the signal gets nervous with it..hands over the batten to ecm who brings the cold back,hands it back to gfs who drops it again before handing it over to the ukmo who runs for the finishing line in nearly record breaking time! But rrrr...it would have been a new world record if only gfs wouldn't have kept dropping the batten! A little NWP Olympics terminology there folks.

The 0z mogreps do persist with a good chunk of colder members!

Am I worried over gfs! Never...it will fall back into line and it will yet again fall back out of line..thats its nature...it always wants to play different to the other models like a spoilt child.

January 9

2 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Can somebody give them the right post code? They seem to be losing their way.

I would imagine that holds true for both the models and some of the posters

January 9

1 minute ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Gfs is completely terrible even with all the background signals the UK can’t seem to grasp a cold spell safe to say winters in the UK are a thing of the past

A couple of runs and this is what we get again...when will some ever learn...we really do make ourselves look so clueless at times!

The models are struggling beyond day 6 with set up full stop. And they very often do this when the NH is out of sorts.

Interesting little thought from me also here regarding the drivers becoming less favourable in a couple of weeks time..ie mjo less favourable! Currently another possibility of a further warming of the strat which could serve to override the negative mjo impacts by perhaps keeping us cold! Then we look at the potential for said drivers to improve again as we move into Feb with mjo on the move and rise yet again..the possibilities are endless and do you not think with all that's going on the NWP is not gonna struggle? Throw another warming event in and they're gonna be all over the place even more!

I'm not gonna say keep the faith or have a little patience this time..your old enough to make up your own minds and decisions..but to my eyes the overall pattern is very exciting to say the least.

January 8

It appears many lose there heads on here at least once a day with the det runs especially.

It must be bloody murder for your partners when your not liking a particular run.

What I'm not convinced about is the ens that show a very strong pv later this month,its currently in very weakened state with some evidence of further pressure being placed upon it very soon

I read an interesting article from Amy Butler regarding the recent ssw that didn't really split and reverse and it appears they seem unsure as to why it went wrong! Also points out the fact it stays weak for another couple of weeks with the scope for it to become hit again further down the line.

I will include a screenshot of the tweet so you can direct yourself for the full read up.

Ecm ens do show a fair amount of cold runs out to the 21st of the month..but tonight it again looks like the usual wobbles from the dets especially....wouldn't at all be suprised to see yet another few sterling runs tomorrow.

Don't lose sleep over it folks..we will be rolling again.

This should lift the spirits...strong pv my backside

@blizzard81I've been scratching my head thar much me hairs fallen out

January 8

Let's throw the cat amongst the pigeons here folks.

Mmmmm the suspense is getting more than a Hitchcock thriller.

Sorry @Met4Cast you had already posted it.

That's some serious numbers though..yes we've been here before,but with the pv in a weekend state it ain't gonna take much to knock it out.

January 8

I tell you what gang theres no complaints from me over the ecm anomalies

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Posts posted by MATTWOLVES 3