[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its not just GFS in isolation though Matt- GEFS and EC meanss are trending away from cold..

I didn't base my post on one GFS op-

We'll see, hopefully we will begin to see something more appealing in the coming days..

 

I understand where your coming from northwest snow, and to be honest the models ain't exactly nailed anything down this winter, but I still feel the eps (etc) are struggling big time with this ever so slow ssw impact, but yehh, here's hoping, wasn't having a pop at you in anyway, as I value your input 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS is hideous further on,there can surely be no doubt unless we see something soon Exteter will surely revise their outook?

Northwesternsnow you say this literally daily, why would the met office revise there update based on a soon to be discarded gfs18z run, you do realize they have just a little bit more data at there disposal! The gfs for me goes from narnia charts to heatwave charts over the course of 24hours, they really must be having a good laugh if they ever get to read these posts 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Oh well, that settles it then. It's not like weather conditions can change or that we have colder air spreading south over the next few days. The snow risks showing on various computer models must be a figment of our imagination.

Well said, comments like that are the reason I stopped reading the other forum site, I fail to see what the current temperature in any location as got to do with a snow risk in a few days, 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Interesting times folk, snow potential is clear to see, some may get a dumping, others a smattering, but longer term I feel good, especially as the Eastern seaboard is potentially looking a fair bit milder this time next week, so one would hope a raging jet stream surge brought on from intense cold pooling out of Canada looks a little less likey

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, mattstoke, mattwolves and me inbetween

No inyabackyardism from me Atlantic, if the snow gets all dumped 100mile south east then I'll travel down there and enjoy it with the locals, net weather ayy we!!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Icon has Tuesday's frontal system further north. More of the North Midlands into play.

Just for a bit of IMBYism 

18z vs 12z

  

Liking your style mattstoke, but hey ho, dose the entire country in it and I'll be as happy as a pig in........ A blanket

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Interesting as regards to this low pressure moving to the south east, and perhaps the one later in week following the same trajection! Being as storm Emma moving up from the sw scuppered the beast last year, perhaps we have the exact opposite this time, short term pain bringing much more gain 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

given that the extended eps are complete about 8-15pm, i’m not sure there is time for a proper assessment to be made of the 12z runs and for them to be included in a 9 or 10pm forecast.  I used to feel that the met office backed bbc 10pm output reflected the evening ec output if it was different but since meteogroup took over, I’m not sure that’s the case. it could simply be that the economics of meteogroups set up doesn’t allow for it. 

Good point blue, cheers for clarifying that

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

18z ICON rolling, won't take long tonight to get to the points of real interest. Wonder what direction ICON will go this time, its been really inconsistent with how it evolves both lows the last 3-4 suites.

I admire your optimism kold, what surprises me is how so many on here await the 18z run!!! As regards to data it as alongside the 6z less information inputted then say, the 0z and 12z, no wonder the americans take more note of the ecm!! 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

18z ICON rolling, won't take long tonight to get to the points of real interest. Wonder what direction ICON will go this time, its been really inconsistent with how it evolves both lows the last 3-4 suites.

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Been reading this forum and the two forum for several years now, mainly as a lurker. Some great informative posts from many of you, but also far to much over analysis of every operational run. Something Jon Hammond always says is very risky, not to mention bad for the blood pressure!!! Still learning about the models myself, even though having followed weather for 30 years, and working outdoors for many. So you could say I have an eye for detail and weather patterns. As for the models currently, all over the place, but I stand firm with my belief, and that off the mett office, in that much colder conditions will be prevalent through Feb. Keep up the great posts guys